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EmpireCity

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EmpireCity last won the day on July 4 2018

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  1. The cinema and industry overall will look radically different in a few years if not sooner.
  2. This gives studios even more incentive to make it harder on theaters in the near term to drive their price down and buy them for pennies on the dollar if that is where they want to go.
  3. This is currently behind the scenes, but all movie theaters are struggling right now and it is only going to get worse in 2020. There are huge layoffs already happening, planned expansions are being put on hold, many theater locations holding on by a string hoping that the busy Holiday season will make things better. The reality is the fall of 2019 has been a disaster and the outlook for 2020 is dire. Current projections are a 10% drop in overall box office. If you add in the pressure of Disney pulling the Fox catalog and all of the major streaming services hitting, then it could get even worse. If theaters contract and can't stay open because studios are giving them even less product than before and concentrating their talent and budgets on streaming, you aren't going to see those massive numbers as you point out. The next 18 months are going to be a crucial time. No more Star Wars coming to theaters for multiple years, no more Avengers, the Avatar sequels are a shaky bet with no tech gimmick to push them.
  4. Theaters have already largely done this. Bigger screens, laser 4k projectors, Atmos sound, luxury recliners, D-Box seating, upgraded full menu including alcohol, VIP service, no talking or texting policy, etc... None of it has truly mattered in the long run and all of it is done at an enormous cost. Short of having the stars of the movie show up at every screening and serve you, not sure how else the theaters can serve the customer.
  5. It is depressing, but it will be fine in the long run. Things change.
  6. That is one of the last ditch efforts, but as you can see a lot of the people that sign up for it mostly complain about the service fees and aren't happy with even a reasonable cost because moviepass conditioned them to an unreasonable price. It will help but won't save theaters. At the end of the day, owning and running theaters is incredibly expensive. Top of the line projectors, surround sound, premium recliner seating, staffing, food and beverage costs and even the normal brick and mortar costs of things like heating/cooling, electricity, insurance are all costly. Gone are the days when you could have a big screen, a relatively cost effective 35mm projector, some normal seats and only popcorn / candy / soda because everyone now expects a premium experience with upgrades everywhere for the same cost. The same time the cost of running theaters has gone through the roof, the cost and quality of home entertainment equipment has never been cheaper along with the availability and quality/quantity of streaming entertainment options. It is about 20 converging factors that don't add up to anything but negative for theaters.
  7. Quite the opposite. Disney will make far more from Disney+ than they would from box office. If theaters disappeared tomorrow, that box office money wouldn't disappear. Disney (or any of the streaming services) would simply put their new release theatrical films on Disney+ and places like Vudu / Amazon and for an extra charge people could watch them on release or choose not to do that and wait 3-6 months for when they are included in the normal streaming price. Disney would love that. Instead of splitting that money 65/45 with movie theaters and playing a ton of money in booking and distribution logistics, they simply put it on Disney+ and with a few clicks start accepting money from credit cards already on file. They keep all the money. The other part of this that has been a dirty secret until recently is how much better this is for the studios when it comes to compensating talent. The days of most back end deals would be gone. No more having to pay Robert Downey Jr. something like $250m-$300m for his participation in the Marvel Universe. Hollywood has mostly killed off movie stars anyways, so having a further veil of unknown in how much streaming films actually make is another advantage to them.
  8. The other thing to consider is that movie theaters have been artificially propped up and inflated as an industry for a couple decades now. Theater owners are terrified to ever move to a true model that lets the consumer decide what they really want. Their association and leverage has created something that really isn't sustainable for them. The fair market would ultimately show what the reality of theaters really are in 2019 and going forward. If you gave people a choice of buying a movie day and date for something like $20-$30 on streaming or going to the theater to see it for normal price, I think you would get a cold slap of reality that far more people would choose the streaming option. That doesn't mean theaters would disappear, but they absolutely would contract down to what the actual demand is.
  9. Absolutely. It is the dumbest logic ever by the studios. The thought that someone won't pay for their streaming service because they are able to go to a theater and watch one of their catalog movies is absurd. It is nothing but free money for them, but some weirdo long ago came up with the "vault" concept and they are terrified to go away from it.
  10. I wouldn't say that they are necessarily ok with it, and I don't think theaters will go completely extinct, but as a simple math equation it doesn't make a lot of sense for the studios to keep the current outdated system propped up. The other factor is all of this is happening while the stock market is booming and the United States is at nearly full employment. There is going to be another economic downturn and when it happens the pressure will really be on movie theaters unlike it ever has in history. Traditionally movie theaters have actually benefited from economic downturn as people saw them as an inexpensive escape when they couldn't afford to take a vacation or do something more expensive. That was true when tickets were $5 and sneaking in some candy and a soda you bought from CVS was the normal thing to do. Now tickets are $12+ and the theater model is dine in based more than ever. People aren't going to dump $100+ on seeing a movie and eating overpriced food when they can get Disney+ for $7 a month or HBO Max or Netflix for $15 a month and can order in some DoorDash for a fraction of the price. They also will be watching on their 75'' 4K SmartTV and nice sound instead of their crappy 27'' tube tv with bad speakers.
  11. The new streaming services have also made the very smart decision of weekly or longer format releasing of their shows instead of dumping them all at once like Netflix has done. It is going to keep the buzz and social conversation going for a lot longer. You see it already with The Mandalorian. If they would have dumped that all at once it would have been forgotten in some form by today. Releasing 2 episodes this week and the rest once a week is going to keep the conversation going for a long time.
  12. Correct, but the counter to that is theaters have shown and tested out those other films and they simply can't compete. Step Mom is a good movie, but it isn't even in the realm of Sound of Music. A Wonderful Life is largely already shown and demand wouldn't go up much with more showings. You are correct, and that is the current rumor/fear is that Warner Bros. is going to likely pull their catalog.
  13. I also wanted to add that if this happens, it won't fully go into effect until Disney+ and HBO Max are set up around the world. Theaters still have the leverage of overseas box office.
  14. I truly believe it will be a modified version of that with everything being available on both streaming and theaters day and date or as close of a window to that as possible. The best NATO can hope for is maybe they can preserve a 2 week or 4 week window.
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