tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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where is that from? Dont see the source.
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1 minute ago, rustyspoons89 said:
Incredible... TFA doesn't just top records... It speeds past them at light speed.
How many weekend records before it gets matched by Titanic or Avatar... Around weekend 6 or 7?
I have it passing it on Jan 1 now.... Have it 636mil at end of day Dec 31. If it goes back up to 60 mil tomorrow it should be able to do it.
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I am thinking 51-53 right now. DHD has been like 4 million short on every TFA estimate thus far.
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5 minutes ago, Wilfred said:
Echo The Big Short being very strong sentiment. The financial jargon may go over some heads but Paramount is being wise to play the long game with it. It's the rare film that's both educational and genuinely entertaining. A 5 day $15-16 Million run sets it up fine for what I expect will and should be a long run. Especially if it gets a Best Picture nom. Which I assume it will.
the big short is only December release I wanted to see besides TFA. I am glad it is delivering.
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12 minutes ago, Rth said:
to much alcoholic eggnog that they couldn't handle (well their sources couldn't)
all the other predictions wrong confirmed!
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Just now, water said:
we have never ever seen weekdays like this before, if it IS lower than expected, though i HIIIGHLY doubt it will be below 50, it could just be because friday is performing like a weekday instead of part of the weekend
Ya, if told people sunday that it would do 45-50 on Cmas there would oh - sh!t meltdowns. Its simply a case of moving goal post.
Its started with, we must beat JW, Avatar in play.
Then it was JW locked, Avatar good shot.
Then it was Avatar locked, 850 mil in play
Then it was 850 mil locked, 1 bil in play
People were ready to movie it to 1 bil locked if it did over 160mil this weekend.
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2 minutes ago, Rth said:
35 is not a low unless no1 going in eve... Actually not even if that was case
someone translate this for me. Is he saying 35 mil is already reached? And would only be correct if no went to any evening shows?
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Just now, CJ Ren said:
lol. They dont have a clue. at 12 million dollar range??? come on. Still says something about waiting for afternoon surge.... get this crap out of here. lol.
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Just now, vc2002 said:
Only 45-50m Fri? Clearly a sign of crumbling.
its also possible that while CMAS is a big day at the Box office it has a cap built into it that no other movie has reached. Meaning, there are alot of people who go out and see movies on CMAS almost as a tradition, but there might be alot of people who would NEVER go to a movie on CMAS day. If we have a larger than expected % increase Sat over friday this theory would be confirmed.
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Ok just read the article. Its clear it is only based off of morning returns. This is not taking into account afternoons. I have no clue how you can make an estimate off of CMAS morning when people are still opening presents. Most people go out after they have their family CMas dinner.
" To boot, overall revenue is also expected to hit a record for Dec. 25, when moviegoing surges in the afternoon. " So ya this was based off of data prior to the afternoon.
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so Friday and CMAS day equal to or possibly less than Wed? Dont buy it, not one bit.
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3 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:
$40m Christmas, $45m Saturday, $35m Sunday.
Hey, I'm not hating on this film, I like it. And that would still be a pretty epic second weekend.
too low you are essential predicting 2st friday only 2 million over 1st Wed(and same as monday).... I find 140 million to be the min. Maybe 135 if things go south. A 135 weekend would basically be a 47 mil Cmas(only a 15% increase over monday), 53 sat, and a 43 mil sunday. I don't see how it is worse than that unless the last people who wanted to see it did on Cmas eve.
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2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:
Almost 400m in 7 freaking days !
Give me a fucking break !
Isn't it fun all our discussions are about whether or not it can break 1 billion at this point.....
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2 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:
If it does 150 this weekend, a billion is done. It's just a mathematical certainty.
not sure. You are using math based on historical examples. I believe no historical example is useful for comparing to TFA. If it does over 150 million and its monday the 28th drop is less than 25% or so than yes. 1 bil is pretty much gone.
I am waiting on those 2 things before I predict it. 150+ this weekend and monday's drop.
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31 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:
The pace this is one is something we have obviously never seen before. It has to slow down eventually. I know Avatar jumped more than 100% on its second Friday but can SW really keep that kind of pace going after its record breaking first week? I'm not being a pessimist but I'm going to say that it has to slow down ever so slightly this weekend. Maybe it only jumps 90% today instead of 100% Even if it jumps 90% today and then 15% tomorrow and then drops 15% Sunday you get 165 mill. That's a staggering and we are now officially into looney tunes land, none of this is making any sense. If it really does 150 or more this weekend, a billion is a foregone conclusion. You can start looking at ANH adjusted.
that is my current line of thinking.
Typically December movies dont have that "must see" value to them. TFA does. They are typically see when convenient type movies. I think we will see the 1st sign of mortality this weekend when it does not have a typical weekend increase for this time of the year. We may only see a 30% increase over wed for Fri. That still puts us in line for a 150mil weekend, and keeps 1 bil in play. I also see it decreasing week over week next week instead of what happens alot this time of year when you see an increase the week after CMAS. If does 150 mil this weekend, and decrease 15% week over week in the dailies 1 bill is still in play (although mid 900s would be more likely). It passes Avatar the 1st week of Jan at some point.
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4 minutes ago, department store basement said:
Just wondering, how do you guys track sellouts on Fandango? (I don't use it.)
I could totally be missing something, but if you click on a theater and dates it will show you showtimes, if they are grayed out that means it is soldout.
Someone please correct if wrong.
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Friday looks well under last weekend in Hawaii. I am only basing this on Fandango. There are no sellouts on the island (8-9 Cinemas). One theater does assigned seating so I looked at availablity. Morning to early afternoon showings are 40-50% sold. But evening is like maybe 10%. That said I think Hawaii is a weak market for Star Wars, I just dont think it has the history here it does other places. I should also add that they have a crap ton of showings though. If it was just one every hour there would be some sellouts at the assigned seating venue.
Would really love it if someone who sees hard data can validate my belief that Hawaii is a weak market for TFA.
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47 minutes ago, blackspider said:
Can't wait to see how big Friday goes. The best 2nd Friday currently is Catching Fire with 31.5m. Just another record TFA is gonna shit on.
TFA's 3rd Friday could beat that too.
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TFA should end up with most days over 60 million(JW had 2, TFA has 3 and could get a 4th), 50 million, 40 million, and 30 million for sure. . Over 10 million and 5 million will be tough to take from Avatar (Avatar was having 5 million days through 1/2 of Jan and had a 10 million day in Feb). I dont think anyone is taking days over 1 million from Titanic.
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3 minutes ago, XeOF4 said:
That record is likely held by Titanic with 100+ days, so I don't think TFA will beat it
was titanic number one every day?
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Its going to be poetic when TFA passes JW on DEC 31st for number#1 in 2015 calendar year.
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If it comes in at 28.3 mil it will be higher than any single day Avatar ever got during its entire run. On CMAS EVE!
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I think TFA could take the record of most days consecutive days at number 1. Remember Avatar slipped up CMAS day when Sherlock beat it out by 1 mil. I think it will be number 1 each day until Ride Along 2 Friday.
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I noted in the Wed thread that is 10million over what JW did its opening Thursday in the middle of the summer. TFA already has close to a 100million lead on JW with gross to date at same point in run. JW fell short of Avatar by 110 million. At this point even if it match JW from here on out we would be right on the DOM record.
Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Actuals have gone up from everywhere but Rth. He has been spot on.