tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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6 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:
29-31
Anything over 25mil is a gift.
29-31 would be like when you were 8 and you thought you had opened all of your presents and then at the end your dad goes into the garage and comes out with a puppy.
I want a puppy Rth!
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1 minute ago, CJ Ren said:
Meanwhile Rth is actually living his life with the family
I think if he was planning on not giving any info he would have hinted he would be out of the loop tonight or something.
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18 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
$178.5 million would be right at a 68% increase.
For an 85% increase we would need to hit $197.2 million!
Ah, we were saying it the opposite way. 178 mil is 85% of 208 or so (208X .75 = 176). But if we are talking increases ya I get you.
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6 hours ago, VenomXXR said:
If it hits $178 million+ that will be a second weekend record that stands for, hell, 20 or 30 years honestly. That would be 70% over the current record!maybe my maths are bad by woundn't that be 85% of current record? 70% would be 150 mil or so. Could be wrong though.
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3 hours ago, Rth said:
lets be thankful that drop was reflected nationally
I hope you meant to say "was not"....
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2 hours ago, Rth said:
The challenge of the day is another record is in play pending evenings going well later we shall tell
best CMAS eve record ever. Over 11 mil confirmed!
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10 minutes ago, Orestes said:
It would be the 5th highest all time OW, topping Iron Man Three by ~4 mil.
I think he might 2nd highest total box office take for a weekend.
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7 hours ago, stuart360 said:
All this exchange rate and adgusted crap is pretty low guys. Do you honestly think Titanic would of made over a billion domestic if it released today?, Gone With The Wind 3 billion domestic , Doctor 'fucking' Zhivago etc?.
This forum is usually pretty level headed when it comes to this kind of stuff but the forum has been crap the last few days. once the big fanboy film comes out, people have lost all sense of perspective and will now try anything to get that the film to the top, so to speak.
I agree you can't say movie X would preform one way or another in a different market landscape.
But the exchange rate stuff is 100% legit. Its math. TFA would need to do 30% more business in Eurodollar markets for the total to be equal when converted into dollars. I do not see where the fanboy stuff comes in to play here. 20 Euros is relative to 20 dollars. Right now the dollar is 30% stronger relatively than it was in 2009-2010.
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8 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:
While "adjusting for inflation" is not the only way to measure a film's impact, I think it's a good way to respect and honor the accomplishments of past films in different eras. Otherwise, you end up thinking Shrek 2 was a bigger film than Star Wars on its first release or something like that. It may be somewhat useful as well to divide cinema into two eras, like an older film era, and modern era, which the dividing line being somewhere in the early 1980s when people could start to buy movies for home viewing. After that, it really changed the game. You didn't need to go to the cinema to see a movie anymore. You could wait to see it at home. That clearly makes a big difference in people's viewing habits.
I see 3 (maybe 4) era's.
Before Television was the norm for everyone to have (60s), Before VCR(60s to early 80s), and Present
I think soon we may have to break of between digital era(2000 something) and pre-digital(before 2000 something).
I vote Sound of Music as last Pre-TV(Color specifically)
ET as last Pre VCR
The Dark Knight as the last pre-digital era movie(but would be willing to go with Avatar).
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11 minutes ago, eddyxx said:
Is this gonna be at 400M by friday?
by end of day Friday or before Friday?
It should be a good 12-14 mil short at end of day Thursday. But will easily pass 400 on Friday.
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Just now, JonathanLB said:
I plugged in a few numbers -- this sounds like weird math, but bear with me -- comparing a film's Christmas gross to its Monday gross of that week where relevant and those estimates landed a TFA x-mas total between $56M and $58M. I'm not saying that is a reasonable expectation, I'm just saying that if it made $40M Monday, and that wasn't a fluke clearly as it nearly did the same Tuesday and (apparently) Wednesday, it stands to reason it's going to increase dramatically on X-Mas day. If someone is saying $50M X-Mas day, I have to wonder why? We already know X-Mas was the 3rd biggest day for pre-sales so unless the pre-sales absolutely do not correlate with the attendance (i.e. walk up numbers are much smaller), it seems odd it would only be an increase of 25% from Monday when most films increase more like 40%. Not to mention a much smaller portion of people were off Monday compared to Friday for X-Mas.
I know it kind of sounds crazy because last Friday was, what, $62M without previews? But $55M Christmas day does seem possible. It's less crazy when you remember that a lot of people who badly wanted to see it did see it during previews, so the afternoon showings weren't as crazy as they could be on a day off a week later. The night showings may perform a bit weaker but given the apparent demand and it being a big moviegoing day, it seems possible.
all good points. The only negative way to spin the Cmas presales would be to say people made specific Cmas day plans to see TFA with family so they went ahead and preordered.
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4 minutes ago, Rey said:
Okay, but what if today, it drops to like $25M because course correction for the splendid run so far, and then, it surges to a $70M Christmas day just because it can. And then, Saturday, it upticks to $75M. And then, Sunday is like $65M. YAS or YAS? Over or under TA and JW?!?!? Is this what everyone meant when they said it wouldn't beat either cause Christmas holidays???
25 mil would not be a course correction. Thats a 34% drop for Cmas eve. Avatar was 32% with Cmas eve falling on a thursday too. Titanic fell 40% but its CMas eve was a Wed.
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10 minutes ago, peludo said:
We could start to talk too about beating Avatar WW with today exchange rates, which is about 2.3 billion.
lol. I like that(because I totally agree, all things being equal TFA would have a nice shot at Avatar). But that is pretty close to Titanic WW w/ 3d rerelease. I doubt that will get many headlines. I mean we never seen major media articles about adjusted grosses why would we see one with adjusted for currency exchange rates grosses.
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Just now, vc2002 said:
Goal 1 is not a goal. Worldwide SW7 just needs to make 200m more than JW to get it, and yet SW7 DOM alone will be 200m bigger than JW DOM.
ya, I get you. But it still should be a big deal.
No non-Cameron film has ever grossed 1.67 bil WW. I just dont want TFA getting around 2.3 bil to be diminished.
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15 minutes ago, Rey said:
You all...my mom actually actually wants to see The Force Awakens... She actually wants to leave the house to see a movie... She wants to sit in a theater for more than 2 hours to see a Space Epic... She wants to see all the films before though...
$1.25B domestic confirmed.
to make your life easier try to convince her she only needs to see the OT (which is true minus about 2 references in the movie)
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We should stop with this beating Avatar WW stuff.
Realize this with me. No film except for Avatar has beaten Titanic's initial run WW gross (1.8 bil). JW is closest with 1.67 bil.
Goal 1. Beat Titanic original run WW. 1.8 Bil.
Goal 2. Beat Titanic including 3D rerelease. 2.186 Bil.
After those 2 things happen then we should start talking about Avatar WW.
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1 minute ago, pepsa said:
This is an amazing Wednesday hold now the sky is the limit. I do expect it to fall off at some point. I mean everything above 1B is totaly insane. I guess 2.5B Dom is the celling cause then every american/canadian would have seen the movie
(Even the litle babys)
ya. The Euro being 30% weaker now than in 2009 will probably prevent TFA from taking out Avatar WW.
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guys, I am nervous. Can TFA take the record for best Cmas eve ever????? It currently sits at 11 mil with Avatar(correct me if wrong).
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5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
$800 million seems comfortably in the bag, barring an epic collapse that would defy all that we know about box office.
If it does a billion, i cannot even comprehend it.
it would be like Star Wars was to Jaws I would reckon.
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2 minutes ago, Clef Ment said:
I am a bit worried about China.
It won't bomb by any means, but it might not to extraordinary numbers.
Star War is the USA's epic (like I saw someone else note). The fact other countries love it too is just gravy.
I would love it to be number 1 WW, but just dont see it happening.
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3 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:
For me personally this is the most excited I have been following box office since I started posting on the forums back in 2002. Avatars Run was fun but I was never emotionally invested in that movie. But this run 6 days into it is just a pic. It's going to be so incredibly intense and fun following it over the next two months.
I feel you on this. Avatar was fun just do to how weird it was, and the fact no one had come close to Titanic in 13 years at that point. I liked it, but I was not personally invested in it.
I have loved Star Wars since I was a kid. Seeing a movie of the franchise I love doing this is so much more gratifying. It also has that feel of a return to a rightful place. Star Wars started it. Now TFA is taking it back. Add in the fact this is going to add another 20 years (all the new kids falling in love with it) to the franchises lifespan makes it even more sweet.
I also love the lack of pressure here. Barring a epic collapse it will take out Avatar. Its so much more fun when it becomes a simply how high can it go debate.
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Oh. I feel like I should add that even the might Titanic fell on CMas eve by 40%. Anything over 23 million tomorrow would be wonderful IMO.
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its probably that TFA's 1st sub 20million dollar day will be New Years eve.... If not that than Monday Jan 4.
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since no further updates, I guess no change. IMO good news. Worst case seems be no drop best case is 5% increase. I WILL TAKE IT.
(Even the litle babys)
Wednesday Star Wars TFA ACTUALS - 38,022,183
in Numbers and Data
Posted
28 million is amazing. I have been looking over Cmas eve drops on BOM and nothing comes close to this. For frame of reference that is over 10mil more than JW posted on a summer Thursday 1st week. We are looking at about a 5% better hold than Avatar on the same day of its run operating at 2.5 times its level.