tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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Just now, grey ghost said:
250 m OW + Avatar legs
Get ready ya'll.
forget avatar legs lol.
If it comes in at 38.2 or better it will have done better increase from 22nd to 23rd.
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if it comes in at lets say the middle of that 38m. I think this is its most impressive hold yet. Only does 2 million from Monday following a massive weekend.
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If it ends up rising it will be the only movie in the top 40 alltime domestic released after 1995 to not decrease its 1st Wed from 1st tues, except.... Titanic, and Finding Nemo...
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1 minute ago, The Futurist said:
Is that good ?
I don't know much about week days box office.
so good its unbelievable.
If it goes closer to the 39mil side of that estimate it would be 2X JW's 1st Wednesday.
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so Tele gonna lose the bet huh. Horrible f-ing bet man....
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Just now, Rth said:
I sense a server crash is going to happen
you only have yourself to blame.
37-39? And it could go better if the west coast over performs? Or did you factor in it overperforming again?????
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Just now, Rth said:
37-39 see how evening goes
WWUUWWUWUUWUUW
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Just now, redfirebird2008 said:
Go to sleep.
but he is online... just wait a little longer......
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Just now, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:
My wife doesn't go see movies a second time, and we're considering going again so she can see it in IMAX 3D.
its worth it. Me and my wife don't care for 3D but after her 2nd viewing which was 2D, then going back to 3D she said it was much better in 3D, and does not even want to see it in 2D again.
My viewings.
1st- IMAX 3D
2nd- 2D
3rd- IMAX 3D
Hers
1st- IMAX 3D
2nd- 2D
3rd- Regular 3D
Tonight I am going to a Titan XC 3D showing. She wants to see it in IMAX one more time. My min is now 5 and hers is 4. Its nuts.
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My wife never did repeat viewings of movies(unless I dragged her to one like TA) and is, or should I saw WAS not a star wars fan(she liked the movies somewhat). The now she has seen TFA 3 times, she loved it the 3rd. She just informed me she we should try to find a baby sitter to see it again because "she wants to see it so bad". I would have never seen this coming.
I am sure this is happening with people all across the country.-
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while we are waiting for some sort of an update anyone have any Wednesday anecdotes or sellout reports to share?
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so how are we looking today? Sellouts? Crowds? What are we seeing. I think attendence might be down from yesterday, but revenue could stay flatish (no more discounts).
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1 hour ago, mepal1 said:
.........that's true, BUT then again ticket prices are higher now than they were in 2009.
Unfortunately film box office comparison can never really be fair, as there are so many variables to take into account over time.
not by a ton Avatar did much of its business in 3D. which levels the inflation alot.
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1 minute ago, mepal1 said:
I agree.......i think after the Xmas period SWTFA boxoffice will slow down considerably in January, and in particular the non-English speaking regions of the world.
China is an unknown, but as you say the gross there would truly have to be monstrous for the film to have any chance of passing Avatar.
Incidently, if one were to take into account inflation adjusted boxoffice, then Avatar is actually over $3 billion, Gone with the Wind at $3.4 billion, and even the original Star Wars made an equivalent to $2.8 billion in figures adjusted for 2014.
yes but if we adjust for inflation AND Changes in exchange rates since 2009 Avatar actually goes down, I want to say to 2.5 billion. The dollar is much stronger now than in 2009.
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9 minutes ago, mepal1 said:
SWTFA maybe grossing insane amounts of money, but it was one of a very few films whose boxoffice was down on Tuesday in N.America.
Normally, Tuesday is a strong weekday for BO where most films see an increase over their Monday figures, but SWTFA was down 7%.
Will be interesting to see the figures for Wednesday, which is traditionally the weakest day BO wise in the N.American market.
this is very incorrect. Every movie in the top 25 DOM alltime has dropped its 1st tuesday from 1st monday. Except Titanic and finding Nemo. Please look at each movie, then look at dailes than look at drop % on 1st tuesday. at 6-7 % TFA is actually better than most.
The Avengers dropped the same % tuesday (6.5%), but well 66% compared to 33% for TFA Monday.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm
The tuesday rise seems to occur later in the runs for these bigger movies.
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37 minutes ago, CJ Ren said:
I am expecting a 15-20% drop today.
The 23rd typically preforms pretty well. I think TFA can maybe manage a 9% drop to around 34mil.
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so is Japan more of a slow burn market?
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5 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:
Hopefully it stuck around 38m. That would be great for it.
Tomorrow will be a larger decrease and I can already see the crumbling and flop jokes.
ya I am hoping for only a 9-10% dip tomorrow. That gets us around 33million and the Wednesday non-opener record.
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17 minutes ago, The Stingray said:
Anyone else feel the 900m and especially the 1b talk is a wee premature? Let's say around 650m by the end of New Years weekend, and another 200m after that (JW legs), which gives us 850m total.
Or are y'all expecting Avatar drops or something throughout its run?
Personally, I think it can do 900m, but 1b seems like a long shot.
my moderately conservate estimates have it at 530m This sunday. 600mil on the 30th(maybe 31st), and 700 on Jan 3(or next day). I think it will fall hard once we get past the holidays though. It still projects at that point with ok january holds (better than 50% week over week) to get to the mid 800s.
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Not really seeing a clear way it makes 1 billion I did a version of my model with what I see as best case scenarios while remaining realistic.
Week over week drops from previous, Fri-ThurWeek 2- 36%
Week 3- 41%
Week 4- 49%
Week 5- 25% (MLK)
Week 6- 53% (falloff from MLK bump)
Week 7- 37%
Too me those drops are super generous, especially in Jan when the weekends will have to be extra large to make up for smaller weekdays.
The end of week 7, Feb 4, the total would be at 943mil. I even assumed for feb 20% week over week drops and it still only got to about 965mil before it was making a negligible take.
The only way I see it making 1 billion is we get over 160 million this weekend and next week's drop % from the weekend are similar to this weeks. If that happens and January acts like this scenario, we may be in Puerto Rico range in late Feb.
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TFA should break the non-opening Wednesday record. Unless it drops by more than 20%. Currently Transformers(in its 2nd day) has this at 29 million.
Wednesday overall record totally out of reach. 68m mil by Twilight: Eclipse opening day.
For frame of reference, JW dropped 18% from its 1st tues to 1 wed.
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so somewhere between 5-7% drop. Tells me admissions we probably higher tuesday, total revenue down due to discounts.
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RTH taking a little extra time to make sure those numbers look good
I wonder if there is an app that I can get to notify me when RTH makes a post... lol.
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3 minutes ago, maryksinger said:
900M is locked
to me that depends on the monday hold on 28 Dec. I do agree Avatar is locked, probably 800m. That happened with this monday hold. The Jan 4 hold will determine if it can make 1 billion or not.
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Wednesday Star Wars TFA ACTUALS - 38,022,183
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by tokila
The big winner (besides Disney) is Fandango(and other online presale sites). Not only did they rake in a ton of cash with all the presales, but now many people liked how convenient it was and will do it more often in the future. Many of them would not have tried it if not for the "if you want a seat better pre buy" Hype for TFA.
I say this because the theater was packed tonight, but the box office line was small. That tells me people are still pre buying, the difference is now it is just a day prior once they lock in plans with people.