tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
Thank you!
I formulated a haphazard theory about TFA's final domestic total. I was looking back on various big openers and compared their 1st Mondays. If my theory holds water, the total for TFA should be about $889 million. It's size and month of release where tricky to extrapolate though since this movie is sort of an outlier lol889 when? End of run?
If today comes in it 39million I have it at 898mil on 7 FEB. making 5.8 mil the weekend of 5-7 FEB, and beween 850k-950k on weekdays. I have not extended the model out past the 7th, but if it is doing that then I would assume another 30 million. So 930mil total.
For me for this to make one billion domestic it needs to do over 165 mil this weekend, and then have 10% softer drops week over week than i currently project.
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anything better than a 50% drop weekend 2 we should be happy with. 40% would be epic.
If today comes in at 39 million, i project a 38% drop which is 154mil. Which would be the number 10 alltime weekend (knocking THG out).
It would be a week 2 record that would last over a well decade.
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3 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:
I have sensed a disturbance in the force and its that its post Holiday legs will be not as good we think.
Avatar is done though.
I used ROTK January performance for my model. Which means solid, but not Avatar.
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you know for all this arguing about counting previews, I am pretty sure that if you took them away TFA is still number 1. It fell 1 mill short true friday, and sat, but made up 3 mil sunday. Also if they both just did midnight launches TFA would have benefited more. So I dont see what the argument is.
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2 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:
#StarWars
may break another record - best TUE gross ever. Heading to high 30s tonight. Shd beat $35M TUE opening day of 2012 Spidey.
woot. Sounds like its trending up from 36-38.... I mean to be 36 or 37 is mid 30s, not high. So is the range now 37-39?
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8 minutes ago, B J said:
Amazing, even frozen fell on its first tuesday
by a minuscule .2% but ya it fell.... add in the fact it fell by 85% Sunday to Monday and ya, TFA is freaking impressive.
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4 minutes ago, mepal1 said:
Please read the posts carefully, before commenting, as you completely mis-understood my post, which i was replying to someone else who had misunderstood the previous posters comments. Yes of course WOM is important, BUT its not the only reason why people are going to see the film.
I was referring to the idea that WOM was irrelevant. Which is simply false.
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3 minutes ago, DarthWalker said:
All movies increase on Tuesday
no they dont.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm
click into all of the top movies and select daily box office. Look at 1st tuesday. All I checked (about 25) except Titanic drop from their 1st Monday to 1st Tuesday. Then factor in that TFA is operating at the highest level ever and you quickly realize it would have been world shattering for it to even drop by 1 or 2%. Going up like Titanic would spell a domestic tragetory way over 1.5 billion.
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Just now, DarthWalker said:
Drop on discount Tuesday
Not good36-38 million on a tuesday is not good? Huh. Must be the worst single day record ever broken.
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Just now, mepal1 said:
No, i don't think they meant that, its just that there has been so much hype for the film, and a pent up demand after 10 years to go and see a reinvigorated SW franchise (which includes the main original cast)..........then people will be going to see the film regardless, to check it out for themselves, well that is the reason i will be going to see the film.
btw:- what bothers me is if you all are going to the cinemas to see SW7, then that means you havn't got around to buying me a xmas present?
Disagree. I know people who were planning on passing on going but now plan to see it because everyone is telling them how awesome it is. Its actually quite a few people I know. So yes the WOM is making a difference.
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question. New here. is RTH's early number ever high?
Sunday and Monday he lowballed it, but I don't know if it is just the way it is playing, or he is just playing it safe because he does not want meltdowns if the final number drops.
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Just now, redfirebird2008 said:
You must not have paid attention during JW's opening. There was a ton of speculation and discussion about it. Besides, you don't calculate the Saturday number based on previews plus Friday. You do it based on the pure Friday number only.
I do strip out previews when trying to project 2nd weekend. Because, you know the movie wont be able to add thursday numbers to 2nd weekend totals.
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well yesterday's update at this hour was 35-37. So maybe we will see the same increase today and get a 40-42 late night update
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is his post invisible to me? all I saw was the PED reference.
edit now I see it. I was looking before her post lol.
So how good? is it really 36-38? 35-37? 37-39!?
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36-38 would be great. It would say that some of Monday was spillover, but bodes well for the weekend. Like I predicted earlier. aa 37mil Tuesday sets my model up for a 900m total amount.
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5 minutes ago, #ED2-D2 said:
Yeah. It's not increasing today fellas. I would hope it stays above 35M.
even if it does what Avatar did that is 39.5 mil or so. 35M would be great that would be an 11-12% drop. I am hoping for just 6-7% so I am going with 37m.
a JW drop gets us 38.5 or so. (4%)
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1 minute ago, Maxmoser3 said:
Star Wars should have a north of 40 million Tuesday. Then a 36 million Wednesday, then a 37.1 million Thursday.
my bet is
37mil tues, 34mil wed, 24mil CMAS eve, 50+cmas.
I will say that Wed could be a tad better than this guess simply because many people are off CMAS eve and it will be like a normal friday to them.
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Just now, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:
There is no consistent time. Usually Deadline and the trades don't give reports on early weekday matinees -- yesterday was an exception. If we're lucky, Rth or Gitesh will drop an estimate sometime this evening.
I live in Hawaii so it is kinda nice getting numbers before my normal bedtime : ).
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2 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:
We will start a Tuesday thread when info comes in.
what time do the very early reports come in? I thought yesterday we had a matinee report by now
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will there be a Tuesday thread? Or will this thread change to Tuesday once we start getting come info.
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out. 42% down. About a 144mil weekend 2.
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4 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:
btw, Rth just reported that Australia's Tuesday is slightly higher than its Monday. Another record over there... bodes well for North America.
what was AUS Sunday and Monday drop %. I recall it being similar to US. Maybe we can use % in AUS to give us an idea of what US will look like. Maybe there is a decent correlation.
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2 minutes ago, B J said:
18 sellouts so far today
bwha, discount tuesday yowhat did you have yesterday?
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10 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:
4 2d sellouts today at my theater today
how does that compare with monday?
I noticed there are more showings today than yesterday.
Star Wars Tuesday - 37.3M (Tele/baumer bet for Wednesday drop is on page 24...much to learn one of them still has)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I agree. It wont hit a "wall" but it will look like one statistically. Basically I see this currently teir we are on. At some point we are going to see a sharp downward correction, it will fall, but it will still be doing great numbers compared to other movies. Just not compared to what it was doing.
The key is when it hits that point. If it can make it through the new years weekend riding high and then have a sharp downturn that 1st week of January we have a shot at 1 bil. If it happens the week after CMAS we will be between 800 and 900 mil. If it happens next week it will be less noticeable, but will lead to larger lost sales.