tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:
Someone slept during maths class.
ya this is outperforming even typical December drops. Avatar made more in Jan of 2010 than it did in DEC of 09. That is where TFA will lose ground. But it will be so far ahead before we get to Jan that it will not matter.
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8 minutes ago, Jessie said:
no, a lot of us knew it could be done. Big Star wars fans aren't going to miss this opening weekend because of its December release, just like the 'fast' franchise proved a film could open big in April, or hunger games proved it in march. Highly anticipated films can open big in any month.
you missed my caveat at the end.
Mainstream Box office reporters and analyst.
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4 minutes ago, Jessie said:
There hasn't been a big opener in December to compare with because studios were too dumb to realise that December was perfectly fine to have movies open big. Its run is following box office patterns, here's my prediction from the 7th of December. I wouldn't have been a ble to predict the gross of say Avatar or Titanic, but this has been pretty easy so far. Sat is the only day I got completely wrong.
even you had a 40 mil Monday based off of a 260+ mil weekend. Your predictions were great. But also highlight how unique TFA has been performing.
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4 minutes ago, Jessie said:
40m Monday was pretty obvious imo, its not an unpredictable box office run by any means. It is simply just a massive opener with typical drops.
yea. After the upward revision of Sunday it seemed Plausible. . Even with Avatar holds it would have been in the upper 30s, not 40ish. After seeing the Saturday totals no one would have predicted a 40m Monday. No one. Sunday gave us hope. Even then the hope became a 35 mil monday.
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15 minutes ago, Jessie said:
no, no films run can replicate theirs, this is just a massive opener with typical December drops.
yes. which to me is equally impressive.
No one thought you could do a summer like opening, let alone take the record in December. Once TFA did that, people started to assume it would behave more like a summer movie. Now it is showing it is not. When I say people I am referring to mainstream box office reporters/analyst.
This movie has HP8 front loading with Return of the King Legs(or better).
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2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:
The movie will have a breaking point we won't expect.
I could see this. It will hit a wall where everone that wants to see it will have. But I dont see it coming before 2nd week of January. By that point Avatar will be danger close. Right now I dont see this falling below 800mil. 1 bil is still going to need a special run from here on out.
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3 minutes ago, somebody85 said:
I'm wondering the same thing!
AND! Goodwill for the film will be through the rough. AOTC DID NOT have that going for it safe to say.
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9 minutes ago, spizzer said:
I had TPM admissions estimated at 860-880M with TFA's current splits (remember its been running at a bit above 10 bucks a ticket so far, and it needs 84-85M admissions, though 3D should gradually decline so could go lower). But I think that's looking pretty done as well.
EDIT: Avatar admissions should be topped at 760-780M depending on 3D splits.
this was the best 3D non CGI film I have ever seen. Yes Avatar and maybe a few of the Pixar films had better 3D, but not for live action.
All of my repeat viewings will be in 3D. I saw it in 2D my 2nd timeit felt like a step down and it is really for me the 1st film since Avatar I prefer to see in 3D. I believe others feel the same way. I think WOM of will be "you should see this in 3D"
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Just now, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:
So it's 1977 all over again. SW destroying records at an unheard-of rate.
ya its 2015's version of 1977. It looks much deferent, but the effect is essentially the same.
Trends TFA will start.
1. Return to practical effects, less CGI (god bless TFA for this)
2. Studious experimenting with launching tentpoles outside of traditional months.
3. Bunch of scifi movies just got greenlit.
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Just now, The Futurist said:
Yep, October & November 2015 were abysmal in America.
People were waiting for Star Wars, I am convinced now it s true.
TFA is to box office what Starkiller base is to near by stars.
Sucks it dry.
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2 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:
I bet Tuesday will stay flat due to discounts anyways. Maybe an uptick.
we will see. Most massive opening movies fall on 1st tuesday from Monday (even the leg master Avatar). Also I am not sure how much of this massive monday was spillover.
Anything over 35 million and I will be ecstatic. Anything over 32 I am happy with.
Avatar like drop we are looking at 38-39 million.
Return of the king drop we are looking at 36-37 million.
That said TFA had better monday holds than either of those 2 movies.
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Oh so in 4 days its JJ Abrams biggest movie by about 20 freaking million.
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Just now, Tubes said:
By Christmas, all these records will be broken.
all but Thursday. CMAS eve will prevent this. I am thinking 24-25 mil for CMAS eve.
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AOTC unadjusted will fall tomorrow.40 mill puts us at 288 or so. It would just need 22 million for this. I think worst case tomorrow is a 20% drop (this is assuming monday was bolster by massive spillover which I am not sure of) that would be 32 million. I am think it will be closer to an 8% drop. which gets us 37mil.
FYI. Avatar was operating at a much lower level (16 million monday) and it still dropped 1.8%-
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3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Holy shit you guys: I just realized the high end of the range gives it A BETTER FIRST MONDAY HOLD THAN FUCKING AVATAR.
IMPOSSIBRO
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if it goes for the middle of that (40mil) it will have beaten the old Monday record (which was set on a major moviegoing holiday) by about 32-33%.
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YES!
Freaking amazing. Deadspin's 160mil weekend 2 is "deadon" now.
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38 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:
Increase. Discount Tuesday and more people off from school and work as we near holiday. Wed decrease from Tues but even to or greater than Monday.
Not sure about that. Here on Hawaii I am already seeing a some sellouts for Wed, but none for tuesday. Granted, Tuesday will be more for walkup to get the best prices. Reserved seating is about 50% sold (all the best seats) for our one theater that does that.
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Just now, K1Rey said:
No because I always feel like the glasses would bother me and the whole aspect of 3D would bother me from actually seeing the movie. I guess it's a first time for anything, here goes nothing......though I don't feel better about it being at my taunton theater.....place is poo, though they did redo the seats to make them recline so I guess there's something to look forward too.
I have gone to IMAX 3D 2 times and a regular 2D once so far for TFA. I feel 3D adds alot, particularly during the
Spoilerdual, the snowflakes really give depth to the scene.
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STAR WARS TFA MONDAY ACTUAL - 40.1M, THE FORCE IS STRONGER THAN AVATAR! (pg48)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
how are things looking for today? Yesterday we had reports of long lines building and sellouts. More of that?
Personally think Tuesday will be down 10% or so.