tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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1 hour ago, sgchn40 said:
Fully agree with tupek. In fact, I feel that subsequent viewing online of SW7 will kill SW8.
yet they loved F7. I guess explosions and car chases are universally enjoyed, while different types of drama and dialoge dont translate well.
But ya. The main reason F7 had a big bump from 6 in the US was whole dead actor thing. People tend to run out an see a movie that has a tragic event associated with it, Paul Walker's death in this case, same thing happened with TDK.
Movie had a stupid plot and poor acting(I despise Michelle Rodriguez's character), but again. More boom boom boom.
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9 minutes ago, Telemachos said:
When it reaches $910m, TFA will have beaten AVATAR by the same amount AVATAR beat TITANIC (more or less). That seems like a nice target.
and a realistic one.
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seeing all the other actuals it appears TFA's drops are pretty much in line with the other movies. GG wins helped soften Revenant's drop more than the rest.
Its a great number for Rev, but a "fine" drop for TFA.
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16 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Wow! Is that a right angle?
The 1st thing I noticed is the blue line is already well above the red line.
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College Football Championship probably took out a chunk. Will be interesting to see how it rebounds today.
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15 minutes ago, MonstersandRoy said:
"They?" You are generalising a wee bit there with the Chinese audience. I wouldn't be surprised if more than half it's audience have even seen SW: ANH.
ya its a pretty dumb comment considering the main issue with China is few have actually even seen the OT. That should be the least of Disney's worries there is whether or not people will feel it is too similar to ANH. lol. And from what I have read the SW fans they do have there tend to prefer the PT.
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2 hours ago, Daxtreme said:
Alright! Well, at least the weekdays are better? lol
So hopefully that means it's not behaving exactly like Hobbit 3?
The optimist in me believes that these small friday drops were caused by the already way-too-large numbers we're seeing, but... heh, I'm probably wrong.
TFA is not behaving like any movie ever. People keep trying to find examples of other movies to compare it to. Each time it has failed. One week it looked like Avatar on weekdays, causing everyone to way over predict the weekend. Then people tried ROTK it worked for one week then failed. Now people are looking at the above 50% drop weekend 4 and are using Hobbit 3. Even though nothing it has done so far is anything like what the Hobbit 3 did.
Applying specific examples to TFA will only lead to failure. After last week's monday number I stated it was aiming for a 41-43 mil weekend. Several people basically said I was an idiot and did not even know what BOM was (implying that looking there would show me how other movies had performed).
Some people just want to make sense of TFA and feel like they have some idea where its heading so they use historical trendlines. (which work with many other movies)
Good luck finding a movie that pulled a 40m+ weekend while number 1 all time. We are in uncharted territory.
Could it continue dropping hard because he already burnt through 812 million of demand? Very possible
Could it find a sweet spot where it see lower week over week drops ones it gets down to a level where it can sustain that? Also very possible
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4 hours ago, MonstersandRoy said:
JJ Abrams can say what he likes, but it's by no means a standalone, it's just the start of a new chapter. Perhaps works more as a standalone in the west where even people who have not seen Star Wars, kind of know about the characters & elements. If you saw the film(TFA) and read the opening title scrawl, it is full of references to characters from the previous 3 films. I mean the first words
is instantly a connection to the previous 3.
Nostalgia is important to Star Wars, like it is with many beloved series in different countries. If that connection isn't there in a country with the 7th in a series, then it's sure the dampen the experience. TFA is a well made film, and a huge critical success (94% RT), unlike the prequels which were not, but they were still Star Wars. The nostalgia in those film's didn't blind audiences in the west.
There is a difference between a stand alone film and a film that stands on its own. I recall JJ saying he believe the film stands well on its own. I think his right. Obviously the film is better if you have seen the OT, and EP8 and EP9 will add to this film by flushing out the story. But, you can watch TFA without any previous knowledge and enjoy it. You just wont enjoy it as much.
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12.2 is very good.
Might be right a 42mil weekend. Or about 14 mil ahead of JW's 4rd weekend which was a holiday weekend.
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not to worried about TFA losing many screens. Point Break, Joy, Alvin, MJ2, and few other holdovers will make room for RA2, 13 Hours, and other weekly releases.
I dont think we will see TFA losing theaters until feb. KFP3 may take some premium screens though.
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DH might make it into the top 25 "Movies that never hit number 1" list.
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5 minutes ago, Baumer said:
I don't see how Ride Along 2 isn't number one next weekend. This site always under estimates films with a strong black audience. Ride Along had a 3.25X and that is rather unusual for a this kind of film. Plus you have MLK weekend, so I see no reason why RA2 doesn't win the weekend with about 35-40 million.
yep.
Ride Along 2 would have to be epically bad(sub 20% RT) to not get number 1 next weekend. This does not bother me at all. I think 95% of us predicted from the beginning that RA2 would be the movie to knock off TFA from number 1.
I wont see RA2 in theaters, but if it decent I will definitely watch it on the playstation network in a few months. I enjoyed the 1st one, did not think it was great, but definitely gave me a few hard laughs. (The Call of Duty parody was great)
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23 minutes ago, Baumer said:
Yes, it is true. Are you saying that SW isn't jumping EXACTLY what others films are? No film jumps exactly the same amount but you can look at other similar films with built in fanbases that appeal to kids and families as well as adults and you will see similar jumps.
Hobbit BOFA: Friday +80%....Sat +72%
ROTK: 122% Friday....75% Saturday
TTT: 143% friday...70% Saturday
The comparisons are there if you are willing to accept that no two films are going to behave exactly the same.
yes, you can find example where the jumps % wise are comparable. The problem with trying to use historical examples with TFA is that is none.
With Hobbit 3 you are comparing a 4 mil Satuday with a potential 19 mil.
Rotk with a 6.5 versus a 19, and TTT a 6.6 versus a 19m.
Obviously the biggest difference is the expended demand. TFA burnt off 780 mil+ of demand before weekend 4. The highest of your examples(ROTK) was just hitting 300 mil prior to 4th weekend.
In order to properly predict TFA we should avoid direct comparisons with historical trends. TFA is making its own trend.
Patterns I have seen so far
1. Weekdays are very very strong.
2. Even on 2 specific days that evenings are weak TFA well over performed (CMas Eve and NY Eve)
3. Weekends increases over weekdays grosses under performs (every weekend people have over estimated TFA)
4. Every weekday people have under estimated TFA
My deduction. TFA is playing like a crazy hybid of a summer blockbuster and a holiday family movie. It had the massive opening weekend of a blockbuster, and daily holds of a family holiday movie (18DEC-3JAN). Moving into January it has changed its form. It no longer can maintain weekday holds of a summer movie, but still has a stronger weekday draw than a typical out of season movie on weekdays. Because its a family film it really kills it when people are off all day (the entire holiday season, and now Sat, maybe sun).
The problem people have predicting it is they base their holds of a typical January for a holiday movie. The problem with that is Holiday movies typically do not open like a summer blockbuster.
All said we are right at 800million today. Literally uncharted territory, especially for a movie that is likely pulling a 40 million weekend.
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I dont know who edits the subject lines. But they always seem to make it look like TFA is doing awful, then I come in here and its doing great. What is up with that?
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35 minutes ago, Fake said:
No bizarre occurence............ movies typically jump 70-75% on January Saturday.
not true IMO.
The only movie ever that was operating(non opening weekend) near the level TFA is in January was Avatar. And it had a 60% sat bump the same day (it did have a better friday bump). Most of the bumps I saw that were better than 70% were like 1.2 mil to 2.2 mil. That is not comparable.
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15 minutes ago, Fake said:
From here on, every Saturday will have big jumps until summer. Because now everybody is back to work/school/college.
I have been looking through some other movies' sat bumps and if this 19m holds it will be one of the best I have seen. I am sure there are better, but a 77% increase is crazy good.
Its almost like a kids movie hold (matinee heavy). Its not totally you look at Frozen in January and it was having 100% increase Sat over Fri. But its somewhere in between frozen and a typical blockbuster.
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25 minutes ago, a2knet said:
15m Sat gives Rev a 24% jump from non-preview Friday.
seems there was a very specific group of people who were excited to see this. I think it runs well though. The initial drop was because Leo's fanbase came out day one. Should play well because its quality and awards hype.
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46 minutes ago, Rth said:
Quick stop by
sat looking at TFA 19,rev 15
holy crap.
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4 hours ago, Cynosure said:
Ah Deadline and their ability to find a record anywhere.
'Biggest opening for a 1h45 minute movie opening on a rainy day during the first half of January in a leap year.'
biggest saturday ever is a pretty big deal. Its not like they are grasping for straws. TFA does not have biggest saturday ever in US for instance (yes day 2 versus day 1, but still).
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13 minutes ago, FranMan said:
Even for the uninitiated, Jurassic World is much easier to get into. Cloned dinosaurs, rampaging monsters, people running away and being eaten by said monsters, even a low-level morality tale about the perils of trying to create life and play god -- it's all spelled out.
The world building is murkier in TFA. Han Solo is legendary because of his exploits in the OT. For the same people, they're told he's legendary, rather than discovering for themselves in the movie.
Disney's goal with TFA was to re interest people who already liked Star Wars and gain as many new fans as possible. If China goes on to do 150-200 million that is a huge increase in SW expose in China.
I would not be surprised if China is the only market in the world where Rogue One does better than TFA,
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2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Avatar made $50m on this weekend, TFA on track for 45m
ok so. At that point TFA will be 50 million ahead of Avatar's lifetime gross. So what is your point?
TFA has accomplished more in 3 weeks than Avatar did its lifetime.
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I have said many times this week that TFA does not get the weekend boost we all project (using other movies NONE of which are good comparisons to TFA).
Yet people insisted on using ROTK or Avatar Thu-Fri bumps in their projects.
40mil for 4th weekend is amazing. Just leave it at that. Yes it will not beat Avatar this weekend, but its going to be 50 million of ahead of its lifetime gross so who gives a F.
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14 minutes ago, kswiston said:
Beijing is +8 GMT correct?
11-EST+1 DAY
I live in Hawaii so it is simply 6 hours behind 1 day ahead for me.
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15 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
yep, first trend from insidekino:
#1: SW7 - 475k admissions (-45%, ouch - crosses 7,5mil)
#2: Revenant - 360k, yeah!
#3: ibdmw - 165k (-40%, crosses 1mil)
After the holidays, steep drops across the board ... let's hope we consolidate from now on
how is 45% ouch coming off of a holiday weekend? That is pretty much the target here in the US, and the ibdwm dropped 40% from a much lower volume.
China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
in China At The Box Office
Posted
that is sad.
A movie with no future
(boat sank)
. Or a possible new franchise in the country.
I have never cared for Titanic, but I respect its success. I just don't get routing against a movie.
If you are Chinese SW getting big would mean more investment in your country from Disney. Seems short sighted to want it to fail.