tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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5 minutes ago, Rth said:
Bulk of College out this week and a lot next, others this week small %(majority are out monday, return tues,wed)
any sense of how the matinees looked today? That seems to me where most of the drops would come front this week compared to last.
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Just now, spazz91 said:
Some people just like to know the number of tickets sold. It's impossible to accommodate all environmental factors in the time period each movie is released in to get a perfect comparison, so we have various methods we can measure (e.g. total gross, est tickets, gross adj for inflation). None are perfect and each may tend to favor a different portion of history.
my rants are more directed at http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm
than at people want to know total tickets sales.
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2 minutes ago, spizzer said:
I agree somewhat with your stance, but your example isn't a perfect comparison. Firstly, the difference in the # of IMAX screens and the popularity of IMAX in the m
I think it makes more a lot more sense to compare admissions and apply context like reasonably knowledgeable people, rather than double count expensive tickets. Actually I think that latter scenario is completely illogical.
The install base would be those who go to movies. The screens would be available retailers. With gaming now pretty much everything is available digital so essentially there is no constraint on availability. For movies some places dont have good access to a movie theater, the same areas also might be more limited with internet access.
I was just simply making a point using a fairly over the top example. Maybe it would have been better to say cheaper digital game on the PS4 sells 3 million at 9.99, and a full priced game sells 1.5 million on 5X the budget.
And with Spiderman example, again yes it did not have the advantage that TFA has in IMAX screens, but it had other advantage. Like at the time hi-speed internet was not wipespead, this lowered piracy and the option people had to stream digital, also people did not have affordable 60 inch LED tvs in their houses, so seeing it in normal 2D then was a massive gap between waiting to see it on DVD (or VHS for many people at that point still). I am not discrediting SM, I am just saying you can't take properly adjust the advantages each era has over each other. That is what you are doing when you discredit an IMAX ticket sale as a simple ticket sale.
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16 minutes ago, spazz91 said:
If IMAX existed back in the 70s and 80s then those movies would have gotten a monetary boost as well. This is trying to compensate for that to an as close to apples-to-apples comparison. Nothing will be perfect though.
you can't penalize newer movies for technological advance. The same way you cant penalize old movies because of the advantages they had (less competition at box office, no digital steaming, less piracy, no VCRs, etc and etc).
using ticket sales as the only criteria removes all the advantages modern movies do have, and and highlights the advantages older movies did have.
I think best example of a movie that breaks the whole ticket sales method. 10 Commandments. It made 56 million in 1956 which magically adjust is you use the ticket price method to 1.1 billion. 56 million dollars adjust to 488 million in 2015(based on CPI). CLEARLY tickets were much cheaper than the market price for that movie. Maybe since it was a Bible movie they made it cheaper or churches got discounts for their congregations to go see it. I don't know why. But the amount of money it made in 1956 compared to the amount of tickets it sold does not line up at all. It is just completely wrong to have have movie as number 6 all time. TDK is a more successful movie by a large measure compared to 10 Commandment going by adjusting gross by inflation instead of ticket sales by the increases in ticket price.
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1 minute ago, Telemachos said:
They don't, though.
yes I know.
That is why I said it should. And it just shows how flawed going by tickets sold is. Does not accurately show one movies relative success to another.
Crappy iOS videogame sells 50 million at 99 cents a pop. AAA video game sells 10 million at 60 dollars a pop. Clearly one is better than the other, but it would like arguing the one did better because it sold more.
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6 minutes ago, spizzer said:
No 3D splits yet, but we got an IMAX gross through 17 days of ~98M which is 13%. RealD 3D share can't have fallen as low as 20% yet, it would have had to collapse to ~16% outside of the OW in order to be at 20% for the full 17 days, and that doesn't make sense given that 3D share decline is typically more gradual. It should be sitting in the low 20s outside of OW, so overall I'm guessing roughly 25% (hopefully we get an update from BOM/DHD/Gitesh after it passes Avatar's gross this week).
Through 17 days, it's sitting at ~72M tickets (record). It'll pass TDK's admissions (73.5M) on Tuesday and Avatar's admissions (75-76M) by Thursday or Friday. TPM will fall sometime next week (again, depends on the 3D share) and then its the march to 100M tickets.
shouldn't IMAX ticket count twice as much as a 2D ticket. They cost 2X as much and show people are willing to pay more to see this particular movie, but yet when you just go by a simple tickets sold you strip away one thing that set this movie apart. People are willing to pay more to see it.
This is why simple ticket counts as dumb.
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I could see 8 million today.
JW made 17million its 3rd Sunday, TFA made around 21.5 its 3rd sunday.
JW fell to 6.5 million despite it being the summer.
Part of me thinks Sunday was somewhat depressed by people not wanting to go to a movie the last day of holiday break, so we already had a portion of the drop. That is how I see 9-10 million, but if it falls like JW (or worse since its Jan), I could easily see 7-8 mil.
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1 minute ago, terrestrial said:
BoxOffice
@BoxOffice vor 11 SekundenSTAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS took in $90.24M this weekend and has grossed $742.21M to date domestically.
#TheForceAwakens
nice.
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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:
Plenty of sequels outgross the previous/first. Admissions is not very common but has still happened. A well liked mega hit always has its work cut out for it with the sequels living up to it. And then there can be a sort of law of diminishing returns with a lot of sequels.
the simple answer would be that Sequels are somewhat limited by the audience they saw the 1st. You could say the pool of people going to see EP 8 is the people who went to see TFA. TFA even though a sequel was designed to be accessible to everyone, even at that there are alot of people who did not go to TFA because they had not seen Star Wars before. The sequels that do better than the originals tend to be movies that the original was unknown and grew in popularity after it left the theater. Bad Boys, Terminator fall into that category.
That is what was so amazing about TLOTR. Each gotten better and better results with each movie.
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18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
I think next saturday is the first day Avatar outpaces TFA, then he does so everyday for the rest of TFA's run. I think we will be finishing just under 1b
What total gross are we on right now?
Avatar made 330 million after Jan 10. TFA will likely be 180 million away from 1 billion. It could be outpaced by over around 90% at that point and still get a billion. The key for TFA to make 1 billion is a sub 50% drop next weekend (low 40s would help alot).
The following weekend is a holiday weekend so the drops should be blunted. I expect to be around 870 after MLK 4 day. The question become can TFA mainstain steady drops to get 13 million of Jan 17. JW made 120 million after its 32nd day. So it just need to hold a tad better that point in its run.
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TFA box office is really sinking today.
Sinking Titanic.
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2 hours ago, RogueLeader said:
You still think that 1 billion is still feasible? Seems substantially less likely.
A 40% drop next weekend would be too much for the film to get to 1 billion. How would the math even work?
In my model simply changing next week to a 41% drop affects the trajectory of the following weeks. Doing this sets the model to 963 mil on Feb 7 and still making solid money. (1 mil weekdays, 6 mil weekend total). If it is at 963 feb 7 and still making a decent take it would likely crawl past 1 billion. Probably end up like 1.025 bil or so.
A 50% drop next weekend and we are looking a 915 mil on the same day, but only making 6-700k a day and 4-5 mil on weekend. In this case it would crawl to 950mil.
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5 minutes ago, Caladbolg said:
34.2m puts on track now for $89-91m. Awesome for a 3rd weekend.
its only 40-45 million about JW's 3rd weekend, this is a serious issue.......
or not.
That said the 1 billion dream is going to relying on TFA finding a point where its drops stabilize soon. A 40% drop next weekend and 25% drop (MLK) the next should be enough to keep it on a path to 1 bil.
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Just now, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:
Rth *is* the connections. I'm being serious, he does not have sources that give him estimates, he has access to the real-time raw data and extrapolates from that, same as the other sources that give estimates to Deadline or Variety. Plus he's been doing this for quite awhile, and really knows what he's doing. Why, you might even think he could make a career doing this.
right that was category 1. I guess should have said connections/access. Either way, he has data and he knows how to use it.
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From being a here a short time I have concluded that Rth either has a really large sample (and thus has alot of connections). Or he is freaking amazing a extrapolating a smaller sample that he has access to.
You just aren't that accurate without one of the 2 being true.
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only a 55% increase seems kinda low. Weren't they really off last week on Cmas day? Are we getting numbers from the B team again maybe?
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12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
@Baumer Fett Perhaps a ritual sacrifice is needed to appease @Rth
Who here is willing? Who amongst you will fall for the betterment of the forums?!?how about that sagemode guy? Or would the might Rth reject that sacrifice?
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maybe the numbers are so bad that Rth is too depressed to post them.
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1 minute ago, CJohn said:
Not even drunk interns from THR and DHD are giving us numbers like in Christmas.
they have all given up guessing what TFA will do next.
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3 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:
Hey guys....any numbers?
HAHAHAHA
did he say he was not giving numbers? what led you to believe that?
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I am going with 37-38 mil friday. Thats about a 65% rise. TFA has been exceeding expectations all along on weekdays (maybe with the only except of Wed dec 30) however its weekends have fallen a little under what we expected after the thursday previews. While logically the weekend increase should take it a little over 40, I think it stays a little lower than that. I think we see a slight bump saturday to maybe 39.5, then a hardish fall sunday to about 28mil. That would be able a 105 mil weekend and a 30% drop from last weekend.
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49 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Holy shit, it just doesn't stop! $23m on new years eve is absolutely ludicrous.
Avatar made 14.7m on this new eve, then increased 71% to Friday. Star Wars has been out pacing it so lets say 75%, then if we take this number with the original 23m we hit very close to $40m, by the end of the weekend star wars will hit just under 800m. After the 3rd week Avatar had made only 40% of it's total gross, it's safe to say Star Wars is following this trend which means it will hit 1.8B DOM by the end of this run, now if we do the same for Star Wars over seas run and mutliply in the BB8 factor we can evalutate that it will make something close to 23 trillion dollars.
Maybe 1 or 2 people would have fallen for your sarcasm if not for you Avatar profile pic.
Avatar. Few care about it anymore. Star Wars. 38 years and counting. Come talk to me in 2047 when Avatar: The Navii Awaken crushes all domestic box office records. I supposed at that point Avatar will be simply "Gone With the Wind".
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Have to wonder what Disney must be thinking. They spent half a decade building up their Marvel Universe to the culminating event of the Avengers in 2012. It was huge. But their shiny new IP called Star Wars beat that in 13 days.
I just hope they realize the value in Star Wars is less=more. I am fine with as many spinoffs as they think they can sell (especially if they start broadening the galaxy with them), but keep the Saga trilogies at once a decade at a min.
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well deadline said 27.1 to 27.9 yesterday and we got 28.3. There is still hope.
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Weekend Actuals: The Force Awakens - 90.2M !!!
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by tokila
Michael Bay Directing Star Wars Spinoff in 2020. Tentatively titled "The Force Unleashed".
It promises high intense Jedi vrs Robot action, Jedi have become so powerful they can use the force to fly and teleport. The Darkside Joins the Light to battle an invasion of extra-galactic Robot warriors. the great great great granddaughter of Rey will lead the light, and Kylo Ren's great great great grandson will lead the dark. The movie will have a massive asteriod destroying a planet, and robots leg humping. The Rock will star as a Darkside uses and Rohnda Rousey as the light. We will no longer have a classical soundtrack, but instead it will be Europunk. Its gonna be great.