tokila
-
Posts
358 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by tokila
-
-
Just now, kesleyk said:
Comes down to 200k to put down JW thursday...
Someone one needs to edit the Emperor meme.
Good Good Disney, let the fudge flow through you ...
Fudge is the path to the box office dark side.
-
1
-
-
To add, at 23mil on the dot it would an 18 percent drop or so. Avatar was 20%. Seems almost too good to be true. Number is very late, I think it holds pretty close.
-
1
-
-
awsome. YES!
and completely predictable that we would end up 200k less than JW.... lol.
Disney. You have been good about the fudge..... now is the time. Take the "calendar year" bragging rights.
-
9
-
-
gonna go with 21-22 for NY Eve.
-
8 minutes ago, Kalel009Shel said:
Amen ethan awakens is an abomination to OT. Though it does get some positive points for getting some things right.
scoreboard.
-
27 minutes ago, JohnnY said:
I was taking a look at past years' numbers and I found out that some movies actually increase on December 31st... Anyone knows why? I couldn't really see any similarities between the movies that increased in this date.
Edit: Ok, I came to the conclusion that movies that do well on December 31st are PG rated or Award Nominees... i'm don't really get though, are matinees for awards nominees usually strong?
day of the week can matter. if NY eve is Friday it should have a slight increase over previous day.
-
1
-
-
18 hours ago, Ball Lightning said:
Wednesday was $2.9m for a week total of $22.4m and a complete total of $60.95m.
If today can get around the same (it's looking like it), then the Monday-Thursday of SW's second week would be in the top 10 OW
is that US or AUS dollar?
-
4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
Avengers 3rd weekend drop was -46%, JW had a drop of -48.8%
= I think he meant that as a worst case see $82m
He seem to think it will be a better one, see his forecast of $89.82m. That is actually pretty near to what I have thought, but I put a higher one at the third weekend prediction threat for the reason of missing the milestone (but added a comment about it)
A-typical for here it is a betting thread for donations to help to bring up the needed money to run the forum
Not to push, but for to look into what ammounts who wrote down there
-39.8% was SW 7's 2nd weekend drop... but based on the OW incl. pre-views
Well for one TFA has a traditionally strong holiday weekend its 3rd weekend that should blunt the fall some. Also at least in JW's case weekend 2 had Fathers day (which was a really strong sunday for it, flat from saturday), and weekend 4 was sort of an in between weekend.
Also at what point do we stop looking at JW and TA for any guidance on how TFA trends. TFA has not been behaving like them at all...
-
3
-
-
22 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:
Ridley Scott has been riding off making Gladiator for 15 years now lol
most of his stuff is good. And to be fair its hard to top Gladiator, that film was amazing. I will say Robin Hood was boring as hell.
The Martian was a big comeback for him box office wise.
-
1
-
-
47 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:
Anyone else think some stuff needs to move out of February? First weekend we've got Dad's Army and Goosebumps, that I can live with. But week 2 has Deadpool, Zoolander, Pride Prejudice and Zombies, Point Break and the Chipmunks all going wide. Surely something there has to move.
47 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:Anyone else think some stuff needs to move out of February? First weekend we've got Dad's Army and Goosebumps, that I can live with. But week 2 has Deadpool, Zoolander, Pride Prejudice and Zombies, Point Break and the Chipmunks all going wide. Surely something there has to move.
Point break will be DOA. WoM should have reached UK by then....
The only 2 competitors I see are Zoolander and Deadpool. I guess it just depends on who is in the mood for action and who for comedy.
-
9 hours ago, Rth said:
don't have time whole admits/ inflation etc atm, yeah Heretic check at some point but Lumiere admits don't sound right, Avatar for starters had around 90% (3D/Imax) much much higher tkt average TFA for example around 40%. Whole lot factors regarding ratios adult/child, format, discounts etc. Of cuff example actual admits in Australia while Avatar BO was double Titanic in actual (not estimated) admits Titanic was around 500k more TFA will have much higher admits then Avatar.
These days however because 3D in particlular is dying in lot markets even with 3D titles the tkt average for those has come down a lot due to ratio among other things.
France which a lot may not know do not initially track BO at all its all admits the BO is fully estimated from admits they get, they don't get BO until the theatres submit their BO reports (end week thru end month) and film rental is calculated and then see how close the Est BO is to actual
Old titles total different landscape back then like 100% different lol
thanks super informative.
-
7 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:
It did happen to Avatar though. 17M sunday vs 19M monday.
Highly likely it happens again this week-end, since TFA doesn't hold like Avatar in most cases.
true, even I have this weekend at 37-41-30 which would have sunday lower than monday.
Thats 28% drop weekend. 3X avatar drop.
-
1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:
Avatar dropped less than 10% from its 2nd weekend to 3rd. If TFA did the same it would have a $135 million 3rd weekend. It's going to drop at least 25% from its 2nd to 3rd.
another way to look at it is TFA has consistently been dropping 17-22% week over week (if you take out previews Cmas only fell 20%). The only day it was worse than this Saturday the 27th(28%, we will never know how much weather affected that). So even if it accelerates this weekend to 28% falls we are still looking at 108 mil if it maintains its current decline rate this weekend we would be looking at 115mil(I even left a 28% sunday drop in the equation).
-
1 minute ago, lab276 said:
With Avatar's drops it gets to 110m.
depends how you look at. Going by dailies and %s ya about 110. Going by weekend drops.... it would be like 130 mil....
I have it at 108. Just enough to beat the old 2nd weekend record on the 3rd weekend. which is exactly like something TFA would do... lol.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, Luiz Nando said:
Weekend Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens', 'The Hateful Eight' & 'Daddy’s Home'
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 98m / Total: 751m
2. The Hateful Eight - 25m / Total: 42.7m
3. Daddy's Home - 23m / Total: 87.5m
4. Sisters - 12.7m / Total: 63m
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip - 12m / Total: 67.3m
too low. They are essentially predicting TFA to be Monday through Wed+ 8 mil or so. That would have to be like a 34-40-24 weekend. Not seeing sunday lower than this monday. Lets make Sunday = to monday (last week it was +3 despite a massive storm), lets give friday (a holiday) a measly 23% boost over Tuesday(worse than last weeks boost). So 37-44-30.... Thats not overly generous and it gets us to 111 million. (and it passes Avatar likely on Sunday)
-
I think mine makes so much more sense. The big thing to remember. After ANH in 1977 during Carter's presidency the US went through several years of double digit inflation. It seems that Star Wars and prior me and BOM line up pretty close. Its after that where I think BOMs method is flawed.
I will add the reason my method actually has Avatar higher than BOM is because inflation has outpaced ticket prices and not vice versa like it had the 25+ years prior.
Edit 3- Also note every movie above Titanic was released before the VCR was in every household. Its spectacular that Titanic was able to even get close.Its seems pretty clear that the VCR was the single biggest change to the movie landscape, digital may be taking another bit out of the Box office.
-
ya disney finally let TFA squeeze by a number without falling a fraction short.
Titanic's Original Run- $600,788,188
TFA- $600,949,526
-
4
-
-
8 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said:
About 271M. Funny thing, that number continues to increase on a daily basis. I just don't see how it misses 1B.
Going to keep increasing. Earliest I see it lining up is mid next week, should still gain a little next week total. It wont really start cutting into the gap much until after MLK. But at that point we should be past 900 mil(or very close to it).
-
3
-
-
13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
Older movies had much smaller population to draw from as well. But all in all it is a more difficult market than 20-30 years ago, that is for sure. Netflix and other streaming services, the Internet in general, a billion cable TV channels, great home theater quality, annoying moviegoers (cell phones, etc.), higher ticket prices, and ridiculously high concession prices all make it less desirable to attend a movie now than the 1990's or earlier.
yes. just take total gross times inflation (not ticket price inflation). Leave ticket sales out of the equation. Just to many variables with ticket sales to properly valuate them in time. I guess I am saying we should go with the real dollar value of a movie (based on current value of dollar in relation to where it was).
Then only real issue in comparing is the relative size of the industry (compared to its relative size in the past) this is also driven by population and accessibility this is mainly is offset by higher competition.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, DamienRoc said:
If we're talking first runs, Titanic definitely sold more tickets than ANH. I believe it's something like 128m to 99m. The several subsequent releases push ANH up over that, but Titanic remains the best single run for a film in history.
When Titanic broke the box office record, it did so by topping the previous record holder (ET) by 66%. TFA will have to get to 1.25b to do the same.
This isn't to say that TFA's run isn't impressive. It looks like it'll be the only film besides Titanic and ET to sell 100m tickets in a single run. And like Titanic, it's going to best the previous record holder by $200m. This is an astoundingly successful box office run, and it's definitely top five in history.
Yes but Titanic topped a movie that had 15 years of inflation against it. Where as TFA is blowing past a movie with 6 years of inflation against it. If TFA had inflation of 2024 and assuming no one else could pass Avatar it would beat Avatar by more than Titanic beat ET.
That aside I find adjusting based on ticket price to be f-ing stupid. Here is why. Movie ticket prices have outpaced inflation since 1997(and prior). Meaning that declining ticket sales can be attributed the fact(among other factors) that a movie ticket is relatively more expensive in 2015 than it was in 1997. If you were to take Ticket prices in 1997 and then raise the price in 2015 to match inflation across the board, tickets would be cheaper, and with cheaper tickets you sell more. Also by doing this you would lower the "adjusted" totals.
Basically my main point is adjusting simply based on the current price of tickets X tickets sold is not fair to a modern movie which sell a ticket a relatively higher price. You are giving the older movies the benefit they had in being relatively cheaper when they were released(thus higher volumes) with the $ advantage of the higher premiums now.
-
2
-
-
3 minutes ago, RogueLeader said:
Dude, that would be sweet, if true.I am gonna keep my fingers and toes crossed!
I will add my model has been consistently low except for Sunday the 27th. (I had it at 47, and it came in at 43.5)
-
3 minutes ago, RogueLeader said:
BRO! Thanks for sharing that.
More good news!
This films is holding up really well. I just have to wonder how much it will drop this coming weekend. Is a 30% drop too much to hope for?
I feel my model could be off, but based on tomorrow remaining flat, a 23% drop NE eve, and a 73% increase for NY Day (which is a friday) I have the weekend at 110-115 which is like a 22-25% drop. Sounds to go to be true, but the increase based on the dailies say this.
edit. I will add this, if you take out Dec 17 previews, last week was only a 22% drop. And NY weekend is typically better for box office.
-
Lol. Rth called this 7+ hours ago..... He said. 28.5-29.6, dropped the mic and went to bed.
All praise Rth.
-
3
-
-
we can argue about using adjusted ticket prices and how they relate era to era until we are blue in the face, but there is one thing we can agree. Dec 17-Jan 3 will be the greatest 17 days by any movie in the history of the box office. Each Day in that frame looks like and opening weekend number from a blockbuster caliber movie.
Titanic had the greatest 5 month run. Star Wars had the greatest 2 year run. GWTW had the greatest popularity over a decade, but for the modern box office what TFA is doing is the equivalent.-
6
-
RTH Thursday SW around 23 (celebration!!)
in Numbers and Data
Posted