tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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After monday TFA will have a better multiplier than HP8. Yay.
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4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
Aehm, you are aware about a lot of the members here are studying BO, background, the reasons for changes in the business and many more details partly since the '80? Do you really think we are not aware about r.g. population changes?
Again: don't try to pick one mosaic piece and assume to be able to xonclude out of that 2 pictures.thanks, mind bringing over Netherlands-Ven too....
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http://boards.theforce.net/threads/episode-vii-box-office-discussion.50024582/page-421#post-53034240
I have a comparison chart for TFA overseas between JW(1 bil), Titanic(1.5 bil), and Avatar (2 bil).
I cant seem to post the pictures here so I will link to where I posted them on another forum.
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9 hours ago, solaris said:
it will be interesting when we see actuals tomorrow. It seems like Disney has been lowballing everything, the 153.5 estimate give them the number 1 and number 10 weekend alltime. I think it goes up with actuals, the question is by how much? Either way 153.5 million is simply amazing.
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1 minute ago, solaris said:
This would have to start falling 50% weekly after the new year to miss $1bn. I think we're looking at $1.1bn at this stage.
not necessarily true.
I have it falling 38% next week,52% weekend 4
37% weekend 5
46% weekend 6
and 39% weekend 7
and it would sit at 937mil Feb 7, and is crawling at that point. It might finish with 960mil in this scenario.
To me it all comes down to monday 28 DEC. In this model I have it dropping 40% (about 30mil monday), I think it can do better, and if it want to do 1 million this is where it can alter the model to show a 1 bil total.
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6 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:
1 billion isn't a sure thing right now. Its likely if it continues to hold well in January, but definitely not locked yet imo.
yep. If next weekend is safely over 100 million then 1 billion will be a good shot. Right now we still need to see what how it holds next week. I feel really confident with 900 million, but 1 billion will need well above average holds (not Avatar, but not a typical December release either).
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Sunday's gross is not about the 2nd weekend record (it should be 1 million off or so). Its about putting the 2nd weekend record out of reach for the next decade +. TFA beat the OW record by 20% or so, it will beat the 2nd weekend record by 40-50%.....
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Just now, eXtacy said:
All RTH pretenders to be perma banned.
most places intentionally posting false information regardless of who they are impersonating is a permaban.
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Just now, VenomXXR said:
At this point I'd put it at 70%. It's definitely tracking towards $200 million, whether it gets there depends on the last little hold towards the end of January. $175 would be a lock.
seems UK and US are on same trajectory then. US is 800 mil locked, shot at 1 bil.
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Just now, VenomXXR said:
Yep. US pop is about 322 million, UK is 64 million. So $200 million in the UK would be $1 billion here.Ya I get there are more factors than pop to consider with this but still it should be comparable. So what chances does it have at making 200mil?
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5 minutes ago, shruth said:
RTH said "current tracking is at 59.5M-62.5M Sat"
where.
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1 minute ago, The Panda Menace said:
kh
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so UK has a good shot at 200mil right? 200mil in UK would be like 1 billion or close in the US base on population am I right?
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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Unless Ride Along 2 or 13 Hours opens 40+, I'd say at least 6. KFP3 probably knocks it off in its 7th weekend.
One thing to remember about Avatar is that it had close calls weekends 2 and 5 with Sherlock and Book of Eli. I do not see anyone challenging TFA until Ride Along 2. If it gets by Ride Along it will go until Kung Fu Panda 3 (trailer was pretty funny, got alot of laughs from Star Wars audience, its going to do very well).
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this 2nd weekend record will stand much longer than the 247 OW will IMO. I give the 247 5 years tops, I could see this 155 lasting a decade.
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Well if it comes in around the 57.3 number we have already beaten the current record for 2nd weekend..... Before Sunday....
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When TFA takes number one at the Alltime Box office will it the 1st timeDisney has ever had the record? Maybe Snow White until Gone with the Wind took it.
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8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
TFA had a Friday hold that was 73% of Avatar's. If it follows that today, it would increase 16% to about 57m
I think it possible we hit the hard cap on CMas business yesterday. While going to the movies is a popular thing to do on Cmas there are also a ton of people who flat out WONT go to the movies on Cmas. When we get number today it will show if this was true. If it is not true we should see a 10-15% rise, but if it is true we could see around 20% which would get us to about 60m, and we would cross 500m today.
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1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:
Titanic did $194m in China($44m+$150m)
BOM just said, 44mil. Where did the other 150 come from?
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3 hours ago, Vadermort said:
Some of them here predict 1.2bn-1.5bn overseas.... which is highly impossible.
Since TFA is not well known outside of USA and UK, a conservative prediction should be around 850m.....if it does that then it would be amazing.
I having a spreadsheet tracking all the Overseas gross compared to JW (1 Bil), Titanic (1.52 bil) and Avatar (2.02 bil).
TFA is tracking well over JW in most markets, just a few in South America look like it will be equal or fall just short. TFA is tracking at or above most countries for Titanic, however there are a few notables it will not even come come close to (Japan, Taiwan, Brazil being 3 big ones), but there are some markets where it could make up alot of ground (UK, Mexico, China, South Korea, Russia). The Key to beat Titanic is basically China perfoming at least JW (220 mil) and France and Germany get to at least 100 mil (would be 30 mil short a piece).
I agree Avatar OS is well out of reach, but Titanic OS is in play if a few things go its way.
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25 minutes ago, Jessie said:
That just tell me the young generation prefers jurassic Park to Star Wars and to be fair, Jurassic Park came out in 1993 so to people under 30, that was their childhood.
People 40 years and over Willenhall grown up with star wars and the chart shows.
We already knew that SW traditional demographic was male and over 25. Those are the people who showed up on the 17th and 18th in droves. I would Be more interested to see a breakdown starting the 19th and beyond.
That would tell us more about the legs TFA will have, and whether or not it is succeeding in reaching other demographics. I suspect that TFA is very successful with every demographic but females over the age of 25 (I still see situations where a dad brings his kids ages 8-16 to the movie but mom stays at home because she is not interested).
Basically I think Star Wars will never reach the Lifetime/Hallmark movie demographic. And I really hope they don't try....
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Now my question is does Rth sleep?
Conclusion. He is really a Droid. A box office Droid.
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3 minutes ago, Rth said:
From what DL recently put out TFA more like 49.4, DH 15.3,Alvin 3.5,H8 1.9, rest look in about right ranges
I think we are going to need more precision..... lol. I need it down to the dollar.
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9 minutes ago, Lizzy said:
so should we take this as an update to the estimate or stick with the Rth estimate. Deadline has been off with TFA quite a bit, but the fact it was updated after the movie closed for the day in the entire US makes me wonder if they have a more up to date sample. That said the size of the range tells me they DONT have a final data sample (at this hour you should be able to give a 2mil range as like I said no more future business is being done)
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Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!
in Numbers and Data
Posted
it could literally make 1/2 the next 7 days week over week and still be right under 700mil when we get the estimates next Sunday(the odds of this happening are slim to none). A snowball's chance in hell this does not pass Avatar. At this point the question is 900mil or 1bil. Right now I think it ends with 930-950mil. Maybe we can get a extended edition rerelease to get it over 1 billion.