Porthos

*double checks something* Hmmmmmm..... It's OW looks to be adjusting to around $148m, more or less. Still need another 22m, though. *checks something else* Anyone care to guess what Deadpool's OW is, adj'ed? At least according to the adjustment given currently by the-numbers?

Wellll, I said legs "can be all over the place" when it comes to anime, because.... they can be all over the place. Take The Boy and the Heron. That has something like 3.6x legs. That's also one of the most acclaimed anime films in recent memory. It also started from a low base. But it also shows the "oh, it's actually relatable to a Western audience that doesn't regularly consume any particular anime series good? Wow, okay, I'll check it out" factor that a lot of anime has to fight through. On the other hand, if it has more upfront interest, that could cut into that sort of WOM making it more "normal" as you say. I think it's gonna be the "initial hesitation"/"overcoming stigma of anime" which is the biggest unknown here. Once we get a gauge of that, then it becomes... Well, maybe not easier, but at least it sharpens the picture a bit.

According to the Never Wrong Wikipedia™: Okay, here's the problem in a nutshell. The next anime film that does more than 100m DOM will be the first one. The next anime film that doesn't have the word "Pokémon" in the title that does more than *50m* DOM will be the first one. Now it is true that after adjusting to inflation (using the-numbers), Pokémon: The First Movie adjusts to something like 65.8/181.8 (note: Wed opener). On the other hand, that was released around the height of the Pokémon craze in the US. 2024 is also a far far faaaaaaaar different movie going environment than it was in 1999 which makes inflation adjustments a rough cudgel even with the best of comps. If we must bring in The Clone Wars (which, again, is a terrible comp for a long list of reasons), that is currently adjusting to something like 21.9m OW/52.8 DOM. 22m OW isn't too far away from a couple of the more recent high profile anime films lately. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, for instance, opened at 21.1 back in 2022. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train opened up at 21.2, though that was one of the very first films to come back as theaters were re-opening so something an interesting dynamic of pent up demand to see ANYTHING versus limited theaters/seat restrictions (as can be seen by the other Demon Slayer releases not doing as well [though, yes, I KNOW it's more complicated than that]). Past those films it gets rough sledding, pretty fast. (BOM used since the-numbers doesn't have an easy chart reference for anime films [at least that I can find]) Or, to put it another way, WotR has to "prove it". Still, I think looking at 25m-35m OW might not be too bad as an optimistic viewpoint right now with 20m-25m as "default" range, sight unseen.

That's what I presumed as well. Perhaps useful as a range, but the very fact that it's self-selected from folks who install the extension injects problems, though perhaps just adding another layer of problems since the very concept of like:dislike is based on self-selected behavior in the first place. Perhaps best as a yardstick against similar projects. But then we comes to the bugaboo about just what is a similar project to this. In the end? In the end the trailer is very popular and well-liked. Determining how well liked is... probably a bit of a waste of time.

Probably a bit extreme, as there was several things going against that "film" that shouldn't be at play here and I do think the current box office environment is a bit better overall for such a project. But as a general setting of expectations range? Probably better to think to that end of the equation when it comes to box office, sure. I think it's the legs which is the bigger wildcard as that can be all over the place when it comes to anime. Or put more simply, how much will this "break out" of the crowd which is anime and anime-adjacent? I don't think we've seen a single frame of this yet, so it's still up in the air how weird stylized this will look. And like it or not, I do think "how it looks" will matter when it comes to the GA. Then there's just the "diminishing returns" aspect of something which is an off-shoot of a franchise. To wrap up all of this in a bow, could it take off? Sure. It's connected to the LotR brand (which is still very potent) and anime has been getting more popular in the US. This is the type of film that could be a breakthrough film. Could doesn't mean will, though. Might not even be likely, depending on how one defines "likely". Hard to really judge with lit-er-a-ly nothing to judge on.

Isn't that an estimate on dislikes? I seem to recall that we peons don't actually know what the actual like/dislike ratio is anymore. Not saying it isn't popular. Am saying we don't actually know to that level of precision.

HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO TELL YOU!!!! STOP USING THE MONKEY PAW WHEN MAKING A WISH!!!!

We still had one locally as late as 2020. Doing decently too, as a second run theater. The 'rona killed it and it never came back. I expect a lot of second run theaters died during the theater lockdown. Might be interesting to know just how many, if any, are still around. COVID might have hastened the inevitable collapse due to streaming, but I get the sense that second run theaters still had a tiny niche as a "good place for teenagers/college students to go and hang out and have a good time". Not nearly enough of them to make a thriving business model with multiple locations in a given market, but maybe enough to keep the lights on. A similar niche that drive-ins occupy, come to think of it, though drive-ins still usually show first-run content.

So you have chosen death pedantry. Fair enough. I said "production team" because folks involved are saying different things to different people. But beyond that, their actual actions when it comes to promotional materials bely their more equivocal comments. Actions being louder than words. I know faaaaaaar more people are gonna see the trailers/posters than any hedge setting comments by the director or others (though more on this later). How to market this film poses a rather interesting puzzle/dilemma. For one, there is a stigma, fair or not, that musicals are unpopular right now. And I use the word "stigma" to note that it is the prevailing wisdom and not necessarily true. On the other hand, there is also a perception that folks will resent not being told that an upcoming film is a musical, even if they figure it out for themselves. Whether this is actually true or not isn't really the point. Both of the above are probably thought to hold strong sway over some of the core demos of the film. Now they could just tell these folks to put on their big boy pants and get over themselves. They could point out that there are almost certainly films that they love that are in fact musicals, even if they don't immediately think of them as a musical. Or they could talk about how varied the genre of musical really is, and that perhaps their fears are unfounded. Or they could do what they've been doing and downplay some of the musical aspects in some interviews but yell at the top of their lungs that this IS a musical in their trailer. There is something a danger of them being a bit too cute or clever by half as I do agree with your implicit statement that word from folks involved in production will filter out to the GA on some level. And if that contradicts what they're actually saying in their trailers and TV spots and posters and whatever else, a disconnect on expectations could form. On the other hand, this could be their way of saying "Don't worry it's not like THAT type of musical" without going too deeply into what "THAT type" actually means and let the audience draw their own conclusions that it won't be the type of musical they they don't like and how Joker 2 isn't really that type of film. All I can tell you is if I didn't know a single thing about Joker: Folie a Deux and I saw that trailer, I'd come to the conclusion it was in fact a musical. So, no, I can't say I agree with you about them "not promoting it as a musical" because that trailer most certainly did.

They are absolutely are. Yes, there is the occasional comments from various members of the production team, but actions speak louder than words. And that trailer blared to the high heavens that this is gonna be a musical. (and before anyone feels like being pedantic, "musical" is a very diverse genre with many different types of musicals)

Dare say that the chaos energy of such a decision is fairly Joker-esque.

THAT JUST PROVES THAT MASKETTEA MAN IS REALLY KEVIN FEIGE IN DISGUISE DOING A FALSE FLAG!!!! HOW ELSE DID HE KNOW THE TITLE CHANGE AHEAD OF TIME!!!! I'M ON TO YOU MASKETTA MAN!!!!

@Masketta Man when he sees the new title of the movie.

Got your new profile pic ready for you, @DAJK. 👍

You are a good judge of character! (or at least can read/look for tells 😉) Finding primary sources on this is difficult, but I can confirm that when he was first signed to pro ball in Japan, he had his mother oversee his finances: that part is relatively easy to source (it's from a biography about him). How long his mother kept control of his finances while he played in Japan is less clear, but I get the impression he had her control it for a very long stretch of time, if not his entire playing career there. Spent some time trying to chase down actual verifiable info that doesn't look to be just sloppy regurgitation of the above but didn't come up with much that I could actually track down and verify. Now he was 16 at the time when that arrangement started, so that does make sense. And once an arrangement starts, it's easy to keep it going simply due to inertia (plus family ties in this case). But, yes, the read that he'd just as well prefer that someone else take care of money issues seems to be well founded.

Believe it or not, I am actually trying to restrain my commentary here. (okay, not succeeding at it, but am in fact trying! 😛) having slept on it and seen some other commentary plus having something pointed out to me, gonna go FULL BLOWN SPOILER under this box: So, I think still a 9.5/10 for me overall. There were a couple of narrative shortcuts that I wasn't in love with at the very beginning Couple of other minor things here and there where the structure of the show didn't quite gel/flow for me. What they excelled at was nailing the tone, vibe, and yes, humor of the series. Not funny haha but in dark dark satire. Though I will admit for laughing out loud for a minute straight or so about Also meant it when I said the show stopped to make one think. For instance, it examined one of the classic Fallout themes of Cynicism vs Idealism... without actually genuinely taking a side. I think. There's a lot of meat on the bone of this series, in other words. Hope it finds the opportunity to be chewed on.

Oh my: Trust sure is an... interesting phenomenon at times. This sounds insane. No, it is insane. But it's also a pretty good example of how modern society will often just go with the flow if everything on the surface looks fine. Or an example of Douglas Adams' Somebody Else's Problem Field in action. Everything seemed fine, so why go the extra mile and add in your own interpreters? This is gonna make a crazy movie/miniseries one day.

So not only is Shohei Ohtani's former interpreter and very much ex-best friend Ippei Mizuhara the World's Worst Degenerate Gambler, he apparently isn't very bright, either: Brah. Bro. Just... All part of an indictment that came down from Feds today that accuses Ippei of stealing *16 million dollars over three years*. Indictment can be read here: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24542204-usa-v-mizuhara-complaint === Does really seem that Ohtani really is "for real innocent" to use Shawshank terminology. As I've opined (though maybe not here) wouldn't be the first rich person to get conned out of a lot of money by a trusted person and certainly won't be the last. BTW. Just how much of a Degenerate Gambler was Ippei? Allegedly, of course. This much: Bets ran in the range from the small to the... not so small: NYT broke a story last night that Ippei is (or at least was attempting to) negotiating a guilty plea over all of this and I... Yeah, I can see why he might be given the copious amount of evidence the Feds are bringing down here. @TwoMisfits @4815162342 @cannastop @BoxOfficeFangrl @Webslinger @Inceptionzq (plus various others who might be interested in this)

Alright. Hmmm. *casually checks Twitter* A-yep. Thought so. For folks who are casually checking this thread out but haven't watched all the episodes yet and actually care about spoilers, I have one suggestion: Get off the net *NOW* until you've actually seen the entire show as this show did not pull any punches. At all. *reflects* Okay think I'm gonna give this some dual thoughts. This was some damn compelling TV. I wasn't planning on binging it all the way through, but I kept having to see what happened next. Was some small sloppy bits of storytelling at the very very beginning, but over all as a piece of Prestige TV this was around 9.5/10 or so. Very well made. And as a casual semi-fan of the property (ultra casual might be the best term), I have to say it was VERY Fallout-y. Themes, style of story. Fallout through and through. With one notable fandom observation, which I will put in spoilers, followed by much more in-depth thoughts in another nested spoiler box Switching back to non-spoilery/review mode. I've been a part of many many many fandoms over the decades and I can see this being fairly controversial. Hence the suggestion to unplug if one cares at all about spoilers. Which is something of a shame as this was an exquisitely crafted series with a lot of deep themes to explore, along with a few unanswered questions. It really is some compelling TV that makes one stop and think about various things. Sadly I strongly suspect a likely fan war over this series might very well overshadow just about everything else. Why? Well, to coin a phrase: Fandom... Fandom Never Changes.

No spoilers, but... I think that qualifies as a WHAM SHOT at the very very end.

@4815162342 Open the spoiler box ONLY after watching Ep 5:

Okay, this Main Quest line just keeps getting weirder and weirder, even for Fallout.

Late-ish episode one spoiler [???] commentary/quip (from about the 58 min mark or so) Edited a few minutes later

I'm not saying this is the case, but this would not be the first time of: Person helps create an awesome show but is ABSOLUTE HELL to work with. Remember the fallout from Mo Ryan's Burn it Down expose? Only some of it was the salacious bits of unrestrained racism and sexism. A decent chunk of it was about the absolute hellish conditions of some of these productions. Now I personally doubt that Disney is enlightened enough to throw someone overboard if it was (and there's nothing 'just' about it, but I'll throw in scare quotes as a compromise) "just" a toxic work environment. On the other hand, could be some ticking time bomb that none of us know about. Or maybe whoever his boss is woke up on the wrong side of the bed one day and he's totes innocent in all of this. Could be that as well. === All of the above being said, massive praise has a way of covering up the sins of even the most... vexing of workspaces. So, yeah, he might be back even if something was medium or even serious level bad as long as it wasn't "lawsuit impending/make Twitter turn on him" level bad. ... Mind, Twitter turning on someone isn't exactly hard, but I think the gist of what I'm getting at here is clear.

Would probably be best for the thread if you didn't/. 😉 === Not "hating", but speaking of the pre-announcement trailer, after thinking about it, the laughing in the raining shot is about the only part of the trailer that didn't work for me. Can't quite put my finger on it. Wasn't gratuitous, per se. Wasn't even "try hard", though if I felt like being edgy, I'd use it as an example. Just... Sticks out like a sore thumb to practically everything else. If it worked for whoever is reading this post, great for you. And maybe in the context of the film, it's fantastic. But I have to tell you that was the ONE shot in practically the entire trailer that I felt was waaaaaaaaay too stereotypical. Maybe too "on the nose". Ah hell, let's just go with excessive. If everything else felt like a breath of fresh air, or at least something interesting and intriguing that was just a big barrel of blah for me.