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Porthos

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Everything posted by Porthos

  1. Alright, wanted to leave this as thoughts, but I will point out that if he was "just" an asshole, or hell, "just" creative differences, segments of the Entertainment Press/Internet are gonna flip out that a person who was both a minority and LGBTQ+ got fired where white male writers/show runners either weren't or were allowed to at least attend their premieres. That's what I was alluding to in a prior post. I know exactly how social media thinks nowadays. We all do. Unless something REAL BAD WENT DOWN SOMEWHERE (and, obviously I hope it didn't), a messy disrespectful breakup (and not inviting him to the premiere is pretty much the definition of disrespectful) is gonna be noted. And be a story in and of itself, no matter how irritating gossip story are to some. (and, anyway, Hollywood lives and breathes on gossip/disrespect stories and has literally since it became an industry 100 years ago so me pointing this out that this has a high chance of happening is like pointing out that the sun has a high chance of rising in the east tomorrow morning)
  2. Or a very messy breakup where they didn't trust him to go off script at the premiere. Which... well I have thoughts about but gonna leave them as thoughts for now. No two ways about it though, this is horrible press. Unless something is leaked* within the next three hours or so, Disney is due to have an excruciatingly terrible press cycle or three coming up. *Or much much more cynically, made up
  3. And, anyway, I'm more talking about the tracking component as I think that will start to show up Real Soon Now in regards to comps for GBFE unless Sony really pushes the marketing to compensate.
  4. But it isn't rotten/terrible, which is what the kneejerk reaction is when folks see a later review drop. Can see the overreactions on reddit in regards to KFP4, for instance. Now admittedly the social embargo is a tiny bit more of a red flag, but eh. Unless it's literally the day of release I tend to think folks read far too much into embargo lift dates, both negatively and positively.
  5. Yes, but this one wasn't even related to his acting career. Other stuff in the article as well. I mean, you're right in that many child actors have problems when they grow up. But this doesn't look to be one of them. Or rather, he did have problems, but not connected to him being an actor.
  6. *goes to post the DeVito "I started blasting" meme* *thinks* *two minutes of Googling later*
  7. For lack of a better place to put this... A sad, interesting, yet hopeful read. Pulling for him. Also a reminder that unless you are actually friends or family with someone, you never really know what's going on behind closed doors no matter how much they are in the public eye.
  8. re: The But ATP hikes are also gonna play a part sooner or later. Yes, as ticket prices rise, some folks will either get priced out or decide tickets are too costly. At the same time as purchasing power rises and memories fade about how much ticket used to cost, then it starts to ebb back. Or to put a different way, might just see the gap shift a bit as time moves on. Be interesting to look for at the macro level over the next three, four, five years.
  9. BTW. for folks who care about such things, looks like social/review embargo for GBFE will be the day before previews: Now, I know waaaaaaay too many folks overreact to this sort of thing (KP4 just had a review drop at a similar time and gee wiz, it did fairly well over at RT all things considered), but I mostly care about how it affects ticket purchase patterns. Like, this isn't gonna be getting a boost when many similar films will be. Maybe marketing will do the heavy lifting instead. But just something to keep an eye on as we start to get to T-8 to T-5 when various films will be getting social/review bumps and GBFE won't.
  10. I do worry a bit about the Musical Penalty, FWIW. Each of the last three releases that were pseudo stealth musicals all got hit with a penalty for not putting it in the marketing, with only Wonka really being able to overcome it via WOM. Not that I think it'll be a huge factor; but I do think it will be one. Especially if they're not upfront about the musical elements in the marketing. It's not so much I think there will be a revolt over it so much as a level of resistance. Mind, I also think there will be folks who will show up for the irony/incredulity of a "Joker musical" which will help offset it a bit. But the GA has still shown a... hesitancy to musicals lately and I think that should be factored in as a possible wildcard.
  11. Might be thinking of my post here: though keyser might have said something similar as I have to think the national stats are similar. NB: That's also at stop of tracking, so local stats would be even higher as it doesn't account for tickets bought after 4:30pm local time.
  12. Plus there's the whole "avoiding spoilers" situation. If you only watch, say, the first three episodes, and want to see how other people reacted? DODGEBALL TIME. Hell, just surfing at all will be problematic. Glad I'm not in the middle of a Fallout game run because, as one can imagine, searching for information about how to solve one particular quest or search YT for one particular vid will leave one up to the whims of The All Mighty Algorithm deciding to serve you up content about Fallout, the TV series. (yes, I'm STILL salty about having the ending to Jedi: Fallen Order ruined for me as I was looking for tips on how to solve a puzzle thanks to YT's oh-so-helpful algorithm of suggested videos on the side bar) People like to say, "oh just watch at your own pace", and that's true to an extent. Not nearly as true in practice if one actually cares about not being spoiled.
  13. I agree with all of that, FWIW. The original reason why I... Hmmm, "playfully teased a bit" about the range all those months ago is I felt the numbers were a bit too... arbitrary isn't quite the right word so instead I'll say: a bit too inflexible/ironclad. As it is, I personally prefer the soft range that you're discussing here and agree with it 100% (or maybe 99.9999% as there's always room for comment after all). ... At the same time soft fuzzy ranges that are more like transition states make for terrible memes, so who am I to judge? 😛 (still, have to admit, will be HILARIOUS when Wonka just misses 225. 😉)
  14. Was thinking about TLM as well, at least for the start. So already in the mix, as it were. Minions 2 will be good at the very end, but absolutely terribad at the beginning. Like, "WOW, Inside Out 2 gonna break Endgame's OW!!!! " level terribad. To show you what I mean, here are the beginning sales of AtSV and Minions 2 side by side. Minions 2: [10.75] Spider-Verse 2 [17.35] T-24: 68 T-24: 1019 T-23: 53 T-23: 253 T-22: 38 T-22: 87 T-21: 39 T-21: 101 T-20: 37 T-20: 99 T-19: 22 T-19: 42 T-18: 36 T-18: 81 T-17: 24 T-17: 60 T-16: 28 T-16: 79 T-15: 29 T-15: 71 T-14: 12 T-14: 94 T-13: 33 T-13: 83 T-12: 34 T-12: 85 T-11: 85 T-11: 93 T-10: 24 T-10: 154 One of those is not like the other. 👍
  15. That is, SMB was an All Day release, and while we do have a couple of people who tracked it (those brave brave souls), All Day Releases are just a different animal than preview releases, if only because of the added matinee/early bird showings.
  16. AtSV comes into play, perhaps? Depending on the level of up front interest, which should be pretty high, think that could be the most natural if there is a Big First Day. ETA::: Talking sales pattern not so much sales level here, BTW.
  17. Pity I won't have dailies for it. However, "knowing" that Sonic 2 is still a decent comp (and that Minions 2 will be good at the very end) helps at least somewhat. (the real Trump Card for me at least is GBA ATP'd. Love that I decided to do the dailies for that one as it still ticks all sorts of "ehhhh, maaaaaybe" boxes 2.3 years down the road)
  18. Wonka just claimed that crown. At 217.7m right now. Does look like the $225m line is safe though (and I unironically note that this is another win for @M37 if a very close for comfort one). Should top out at, what, 221m? 220m to 222m? Something like that at any rate (unless it gets some late late legs thanks to Dune: Part Two).
  19. The visual language of the trailer is perhaps an underrated point. The designs of the emotions themselves are pretty accurate (and funny/appealing) characters of the emotion in question. As are the tones/inflections of the voices of the emotions. Is the actual story all that new? Well, no. But very few stories are new. It's the execution which matters.
  20. Having just seen the Inside Out 2 trailer this does actually make me wonder where to place IO2 on the spectrum of family skewed animated movies. On the one hand, IO2 should be targeting a younger demo than KP4. On the other hand, nostalgia for IO is gonna be off the charts (at least before WOM/reviews kicks in). On the third hand this is more aimed at teenagers than the Elementals and Migrations of the world. I do have Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 from waaaaaaaay back in the day. But I consider those to be pretty much not worth much of anything nowadays. Movie landscape, both locally and nationally, is just too damn different to glean useful info out of any comps (or rather, I'd be massaging them so much that I might as well be looking at pig entrails for information). Alluded to the problems with Lightyear the last couple of days, and besides that looks to be broadly pointing to a similar PSM to Elemental, so might as well use the one I'm more confident in. So... I dunno. Plenty of time to think about it, but it does seem to me to be closer to the Sonic 2s and KP4s of the world than the Elementals. How much closer, I'm not as sure. Anyone have any thoughts on that now that we're getting verifiable data on KP4?
  21. Just watched the trailer. It's gonna make bank. Why? Coz it is super super super relatable. "that's not gonna haunt us for the rest of our lives at all" "Well, THAT'S a preview of the next 10 years" Perfectly captures the angst that is teenagedom. And "fear of the future" as well as not fitting in in new surroundings/situations, which is the subtext of the entire trailer, is relatable to people of all ages. As for any supposed inconsistencies in world building? Witty writing and strong performances can paper over a lot of so-called sins. Might not make as much bank in today's landscape as it would pre-COVID, but consider me sold that this should do well.
  22. Huh. Guess I should have gone with those three comps instead of Elemental/Lightyear Plus A Little More. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Well live and (don't) learn! ==== Is actually interesting that Minions 2 nearly nailed it. But I just thought that GentleMinions put too much of a thumb on the scale. Probably should have looked more at Sonic 2 as well, but I will admit that Elemental and Wish played a strong hand in my ATP thoughts here. Ah well, Q&Ds are Q&Ds for a reason. Should have a better baseline for the next plausibly more-adult-skewing animated family movie.
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