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bamajagala

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About bamajagala

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  1. I don't believe IW gets to 60 as Deadline projects with 15.5 Friday. They did the same last weekend and just rounded up to 120. It needs pretty strong jump on Saturday of 25.5 (+65%) and strong Sunday hold of 19 (-25%). Not impossible, but on the optimistic side. I know BP hade that mid 80% Sat jump, but I don't think it will come close to that.
  2. Amazing numbers for AIW! I wish Disney's stock price would follow. As unmathced as Disney's IP in studio entertainment is, it just doesn't move the needle. Their biggest releases since the start of 2015, WW grosses IN BILLIONS: TFA: 2.068 AIW: est 2.3 AOU: 1.405 BP: est 1.35 TLJ: 1.332 BATB: 1.263 CW: 1.153 RO: 1.056 FD: 1.029 ZOOTOPIA: 1.024 TJB: .967 GOTG2: .864 INSIDE OUT: .857 THORRAG: .854 COCO: .800 DOCSTRANGE: .678 MOANA: .643 CINDERALLA: .543 TOTAL GROSS : est 20.186 BILLION This is just their top 18 grossers. None of these titles have done anything for share price. In almost 3.5 years, DIS stock has gone from 94/share to 99/share, basically nowhere in a bull market. Studio entertainment is only 16.3% of DIS revenue while parks/resorts and media networks account for almost 75% (consumer products is the lowest revenue category 9%). It seems all anybody cares about is ESPN and cord cutting as the major drivers. As much as I love box office and have followed it for 20 years, investing in a company based on box office perfomance is futile. That's not to say that DIS isn't thrilled by the studio perfomance over the course of the last 10 years, it just pales in comparison to other segments they own.
  3. AIW is tearing up the evening shows in LA and NY. I wouldn't doubt that it reaches 30m today, in fact I would lean that way. Momentum should carry big time into weekend 2. I'm betting a 45% drop for 141m (40+54+47) or more. 850-875 final domestic tally. I'm not an MCU fan by any means and a big SW fan, but numbers are numbers and one shouldn't underestimate what this freight train is capable of.
  4. I mean't TLJ, but it's consistently come under estimates, so who knows. But if I was a betting man right now I'd go with TLJ
  5. Disney's stock was the 25th ranked member of the DOW in 2017, up 3.2%, while the market was up 20%. Their revenue breakdown in the latest quarter: Media networks: 5.47b, parks and resorts: 4.67b, studio entertainment 1.43b, consumer products and interactive media: 1.22b. So studio is 11% of total revenue for latest quarter. As mentioned by another poster, their stock underperformance the last couple years has been driven by cord cutting with a particular focus on ESPN.
  6. Rocking 10 am's? I'll give you flat on 10pm, but my checks have shown it doing well in afternoon shows into the evening, but pretty quiet in the morning. Tiny sample size on my end though, so anecdotal at best
  7. If 19.5 is sat and we know 19.06 was Fri than Disney is projecting 13.8 for nye and 13.1 for nyd. That doesn't make much sense.
  8. It could pass it today. Weekdays will lag behind the TLJ but will probably win next weekend and an outside shot at this weekend. I understand context and budget and expectations. I too am a bit disappointed in TLJ performance, and impressed by jumanji. As a SW fan I was hoping it would beat Avatar and instead it'll end 640ish. No other franchise could do this well (640-650) and be described as disappointing. If this underperformance trickles down to SW9 then I would truly be disappointed. I liked TLJ but understand others frustration with RJ's take on it.
  9. I guess expectations are everything. For a movie that's burned off 484m of demand and still beating a movie that's only burned off 137m on a daily basis, and calling one's performance "meh" or worse, and the other "amazing, is to me funny in a backwards sort of way. Sing was treated the same way against RO last year and The Revenant against TFA.
  10. Jumanji is doing great in evening shows, possibly 18-20 . TLJ should increase, maybe 21-22. Gonna be a close weekend. I'm normally wrong, but we'll see
  11. I didn't see a big difference in matinees, but my sample size is miniscule, so your probably right
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