bamajagala

Japan has been devaluing it's currency for 20+ years in an effort to combat a trade imbalance. Also has kept it's interest rates artificially low to promote growth. It's been a long deflationary period that has no end in sight.

I don't believe IW gets to 60 as Deadline projects with 15.5 Friday. They did the same last weekend and just rounded up to 120. It needs pretty strong jump on Saturday of 25.5 (+65%) and strong Sunday hold of 19 (-25%). Not impossible, but on the optimistic side. I know BP hade that mid 80% Sat jump, but I don't think it will come close to that.

720-750 is unrealistic now. More like 640-670.

Amazing numbers for AIW! I wish Disney's stock price would follow. As unmathced as Disney's IP in studio entertainment is, it just doesn't move the needle. Their biggest releases since the start of 2015, WW grosses IN BILLIONS: TFA: 2.068 AIW: est 2.3 AOU: 1.405 BP: est 1.35 TLJ: 1.332 BATB: 1.263 CW: 1.153 RO: 1.056 FD: 1.029 ZOOTOPIA: 1.024 TJB: .967 GOTG2: .864 INSIDE OUT: .857 THORRAG: .854 COCO: .800 DOCSTRANGE: .678 MOANA: .643 CINDERALLA: .543 TOTAL GROSS : est 20.186 BILLION This is just their top 18 grossers. None of these titles have done anything for share price. In almost 3.5 years, DIS stock has gone from 94/share to 99/share, basically nowhere in a bull market. Studio entertainment is only 16.3% of DIS revenue while parks/resorts and media networks account for almost 75% (consumer products is the lowest revenue category 9%). It seems all anybody cares about is ESPN and cord cutting as the major drivers. As much as I love box office and have followed it for 20 years, investing in a company based on box office perfomance is futile. That's not to say that DIS isn't thrilled by the studio perfomance over the course of the last 10 years, it just pales in comparison to other segments they own.

AIW is tearing up the evening shows in LA and NY. I wouldn't doubt that it reaches 30m today, in fact I would lean that way. Momentum should carry big time into weekend 2. I'm betting a 45% drop for 141m (40+54+47) or more. 850-875 final domestic tally. I'm not an MCU fan by any means and a big SW fan, but numbers are numbers and one shouldn't underestimate what this freight train is capable of.

I mean't TLJ, but it's consistently come under estimates, so who knows. But if I was a betting man right now I'd go with TLJ

It should win the 4 day based on mt and what I'm seeing

Disney's stock was the 25th ranked member of the DOW in 2017, up 3.2%, while the market was up 20%. Their revenue breakdown in the latest quarter: Media networks: 5.47b, parks and resorts: 4.67b, studio entertainment 1.43b, consumer products and interactive media: 1.22b. So studio is 11% of total revenue for latest quarter. As mentioned by another poster, their stock underperformance the last couple years has been driven by cord cutting with a particular focus on ESPN.

Amen. I've also had to disengage as well even though I want the numbers.

Rocking 10 am's? I'll give you flat on 10pm, but my checks have shown it doing well in afternoon shows into the evening, but pretty quiet in the morning. Tiny sample size on my end though, so anecdotal at best

If 19.5 is sat and we know 19.06 was Fri than Disney is projecting 13.8 for nye and 13.1 for nyd. That doesn't make much sense.

Last paragraph is true. No disagreements

It could pass it today. Weekdays will lag behind the TLJ but will probably win next weekend and an outside shot at this weekend. I understand context and budget and expectations. I too am a bit disappointed in TLJ performance, and impressed by jumanji. As a SW fan I was hoping it would beat Avatar and instead it'll end 640ish. No other franchise could do this well (640-650) and be described as disappointing. If this underperformance trickles down to SW9 then I would truly be disappointed. I liked TLJ but understand others frustration with RJ's take on it.

I guess expectations are everything. For a movie that's burned off 484m of demand and still beating a movie that's only burned off 137m on a daily basis, and calling one's performance "meh" or worse, and the other "amazing, is to me funny in a backwards sort of way. Sing was treated the same way against RO last year and The Revenant against TFA.

Jumanji is doing great in evening shows, possibly 18-20 . TLJ should increase, maybe 21-22. Gonna be a close weekend. I'm normally wrong, but we'll see

I didn't see a big difference in matinees, but my sample size is miniscule, so your probably right

Deadline might be onto something. My theater checks in LA/NY show matinees pretty much flat as are early evening shows. Looks like 7pm shows are a little ahead as are the late night ones. Should see an increase something in the ballpark of what a2knet is showing. Hope it's more

I appreciated it back then, but I really appreciate it now, one of the great box office runs of our lifetime

Forbes ceased to be a useful investment publication years ago and that goes for box office analysis as well. BOT has some of the best analysis compared to click bait crap like this.

You've been bang on the last couple of days, great job! My sample of 20 theaters in NY and LA (been tracking since TFA) we're stronger than Saturday's 29m right up until the 10pm showings, just like you were saying with your set of theaters. Everything just dried up at that hour.

Strong Christmas incoming for TLJ as expected. Theater checks in LA/NY show ~ 20% increase from Saturday 29.2= 34-35. Not quite a double from last night's 18, but it looks like walk-ups are stronger than usual.

Don't worry, they are. Disney's estimate for Sunday was 14.6 and it gets 17.9. 34 at least today.

Called 17 yesterday. 34-35 incoming today or more! 17 was supposed to be best case and it nearly gets 18, great start to Christmas run. NY and LA are strong today, better than 29m Saturday

20m

Exactly. I've followed the box office for 20 years and been a part time investment advisor for 10+ years and have found there to be 2 types of people when it comes to numbers: those who study the financials, technicals, and fundamentals and do their due diligence and those that don't.