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XXR vs XXR

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Everything posted by XXR vs XXR

  1. Now that we have a better idea of China's restrictions, I'm going with $1.6-1.7B OS total.
  2. Curious what it’ll peak at. As best as I recall (without looking it up), Endgame has the record for a non-Chinese film at ~1.7M.
  3. We will see how it goes. If legs are going to be 4x then I'd say 55% 2nd weekend drop and 20% 3rd weekend. If legs are going to be 5x, I'd say 45-50% 2nd weekend and sub 10% 3rd weekend.
  4. Won't happen. Even with a $200M OW, 2nd weekend Saturday is Christmas Eve which is basically the worst possible day for it. My hope is it's less than 55%.
  5. As Harry Stamper (Bruce Willis) said in Armageddon, "It's not a choice it's a lack of options."
  6. I’m probably retiring from full time competition after this year. Gonna go out like Mike in 93’ 😌
  7. Hmm, 5 weeks left for me to hold on and repeat as Derby Champion.
  8. Why? Apple and Disney aren't in the same space except for Apple TV+ which has negligible market share.
  9. That's good news. Unfortunately I have no idea how to gauge the Chinese market anymore with the lockdown/restrictions and all of that. I feel like $600M+ would happen without restrictions but no clue with them.
  10. Maybe but here's my thinking. Avatar's OS total minus China and Russia ~$1.76B OS. Between France, Germany, UK, Spain and Italy I'm modeling a $300-350M combined loss for A2. The rest of the EMEA (as per Box Office Mojo) will lose another $100-120M or so. Japan and Australia will drop at least $100M combined. LATAM should be roughly flat. APAC minus the countries mentioned above will increase by about $100-125M overall (this includes India). All in all, this leaves the OS-C-R market right in the $1.3-1.35B range.
  11. That would be about 580 crore at current exchange rates. Seems like a good target. I'm hoping for more like 700 though.
  12. There are positive inclinations that it will be release, but no it's not confirmed.
  13. Wouldn’t really qualify as a merger. More of an acquisition since Apple is 10x the size of Disney.
  14. No. PLF is a specific format and you can’t just convert a regular screen or auditorium into one on a whim.
  15. Not necessarily, just that capacity will be reduced to those levels.
  16. Best trailer so far but they seem to be avoiding/obscuring any major action pieces.
  17. Since we all know A2 will be a WOM movie, I think it's clear that The Batman is the correct comp.
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