While not as easy to prognosticate, you would have to look more at concert demand than actual ticket sales to gauge the theatrical release because unlike with concerts, there won’t be a restricted supply on availability.
We will see how things play out but I don’t see a way for Renaissance to make 35-40% of Eras even with higher prices. Maybe 25%.
I don’t think release dates matter too much. Yes, certain time frames can help legs but for the most part, a film is going to make what it’s going to make no matter when it comes out.
Yea that's what I mean. You've got Renaissance @ 94 tickets sold for day 2 which would imply 168 for Eras but your post from Sept 1st was 921 tickets sold just between 8AM and 4PM. From your evening 8/31 to evening 9/1 update was nearly 2000 tickets sold.
I don’t think the math is mathing. Your day 2 Eras numbers for this comp 921 sold (or 654 sold, not sure which you’re using for this) but neither of those comp against 94 tickets @ 55.9%.
Looks like a much heavier over-index at AMC than Eras had. Also…..
“We understand that on Fandango, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour tickets outsold Beyonce 7-to-1.”
Looking at all the data in the tracking thread, I’d estimate Renaissance first day presales at ~$6M through AMC and $8-9M combined with Regal and Cinemark.
Renaissance first day previews + OD ticket sales at MTC1 = 115K.
If we comp that against Eras first day OD + Saturday (since Friday is playing like previews) which was 695K, then adjust it upwards by 24% for higher ATP we get first day presales at MTC1 in the $5-6M range vs $26M for Eras.
Obviously the comp would be more accurate if we had the first 2 weekends worth of sales for both but this should work fairly well.
The overall disparity won’t be as bad as the Sacto disparity but I can see MTC1 having a heavy over-index. It’s full Friday might approach 30% of TET Friday but all other theaters may only be 15-20%.
In line with my expectations. Your 6 hours TET MTC1 Friday update was 330676 tickets sold. This is 83304 after 10-11 hours. By ATP, it’s at 31% of TET (going by the above referenced timeframe.)