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Daxtreme

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    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Wrath said:

    Was thinking about R1s early feeling of slowness and realized two things. First, GotG felt the exact same way. The problem was that the beginning was so exposition heavy it felt like you were swimming upstream to keep up and it isnt until they break out of the Kyln that the flow starts feeling comfortable. Second, it only happens in the first viewing. After that, you know whats what and the action doesnt feel slowed down while your brain figures out whats going on.

     

    Same issue in both movies.

     

    Maybe that explains why Guardians of the Galaxy is my favorite marvel movie, and Rogue One is inching very close into "favorite Star Wars movie" territory for me.

     

    I don't mind repeat viewings :redcapes:

    • Like 2

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, hw64 said:

     

    You don't understand at all what I'm saying. The effect is most of the reason for large multipliers in December. The fact that the effect doesn't apply to TFA and probably doesn't apply to Rogue One means that they'll have summer-esque multipliers.

     

    The December effect (low opening and similar total gross which leads to a much better multiplier) is seen in franchises like Mission Impossible as I mentioned before, and others. The absence of it is the whole point.

     

    That remains to be seen. Your sample size is 0 if RO and TFA are immune. There aren't any other big December openers that have summer legs.

     

    Not big enough :ph34r:

     

    You're totally entitled to your opinion though. But I'm done arguing because you just don't have the data size to back it up.

    • Like 4

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, hw64 said:

     

    You're not listening. I said TFA was immune from the December opening weekend lowering effect. It would have opened to around the same (probably slightly but insignificantly more), would have had a slightly lower multiplier due to lack of holidays and maybe due to competition (I doubt competition would have really had an effect on TFA in any case, given how huge it was and its WOM), and it would have grossed a bit less than in December.

     

    I'm listening very well. The problem with your reasoning and your "effect" is that the only movies that it seems to matter and apply to, are immune. Therefore, what use is there for your "effect" if it doesn't apply to any relevant movie before 2020?

     

    Anyway, the whole idea behind the discussion is that you're basically saying holidays don't guarantee legs for normal big openers, and I'm saying (as well as many others) that it does. 

     

    We'll see about that very soon! :wiggle:

    • Like 3

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, hw64 said:

     

    Yes, it does. There are example of franchises which have multiple movies opening at different times of the year - May, December, June etc. - and if you compare between summer months and December, you'll find that both the opening weekends are much lower in December and the movies gross about the same as they do in the summer.

     

    So Ep.7 would have opened to $312M in the summer, with a 3x multi that gets it to $936M

     

    Got it :ph34r:

     

    Actually, that would have been awesome

    • Like 5

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

     

    Simply not true. I've said this before, but 90% of the reason for the big multipliers in December is because movies released in December underperform in their opening weekends (due to proximity to Christmas/weather). There's plenty of evidence from franchise sequels that open in December that show this effect. TFA was immune, and the only reason it got a huge multiplier was because of the amazing WOM. Judging by the size of Rogue One's opening, it also looks to be mostly immune from this effect, so 90% of the reason for huge multipliers in December won't exist for Rogue One.

     

    So, the only movies that should suffer from this are the Christmas movies, but the only big enough movies that ever opened in December are 2 Star Wars movies, but they're... immune anyway?

     

    So what you're saying is, basically it should hit a phantom movie at some point in a very long future. No other event movie (other than Star Wars) is opening in December for a long while buddy.

     

    After the next 3 December Star Wars movies are "immune" to this "effect", I think we'll be able to say that after 5 out of 5 movies being immune to this "effect"...

     

    this "effect" doesn't exist. :ph34r:

    • Like 2

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

    R1 will be new territory for the box office. It's the first December movie opening to 130m+ that's not a giant phenomenon anomaly like TFA. So basically no one knows jack shit about what the multi could do. You can make just as strong of a case (if not stronger) for it performing like your typical 130m+ opener as you can for it performing like your typical sub 75m December opener. 

     

    Even giant openers in the summer like JW and The Avengers had to cope with the basic rules of how summer box office works.

     

    Summer box office works 1 way, Holiday box office works another way. Doesn't matter the size of the opening, although it does play into it a bit. Holiday box office WILL mean better legs, no matter what happens.

    • Like 1

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

     

    There's no prorated effect, I think. But if you go ahead and buy, it should be immediate. 

     

    Done. First gold ever!

     

    All this power, all those likes... I must not let the Dark Side of the Forums get a hold over me. I must stay strong-headed, immune to meltdowns, and mindful of the next Rth updates!

     

    I am a BOT member, like others before me.

    • Like 8

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Lestranger said:

    Just got back. Holy fucking shit. I am not even a huge star wars guy. Absolutely blown away. One the best blockbuster movies I have ever seen in my life. Some real deep shit in this movie. That being said, I think the high artistic quality of the writing will hurt the legs of this film. It is almost too literary for mass audiences and a lot of young children. Definitely made for adults. Fuck man I just wanna see it again.

     

    This movie rocks. One of the best Star Wars. I'm really proud of Lucasfilm and their decision-making in the process.

     

    Just proves that they know what they're doing and they're not in the business of making bad movies.

    • Like 9
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