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George Parr

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About George Parr

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  1. We've seen two movies so far, I don't see how that is enough to say that they "play it safe". For all we know, TLJ could be anything but safe. TFA played it safe, Rogue One had some elements of nostalgia but in general played it anything but safe. Han Solo was the project Lawrence Kasdan choose, taking the matters a bit out of the studios hand. It's not like the decisions are directly made by Disney anyway. Knights of the Old Republic would be awesome, and my choice as well. Though I don't think that you could fit the story into one movie, it would probably be a better fit for a two-parter or a mini-series with 10-12 episodes.
  2. If Han Solo hadn't been put in that spot, something else would have moved there. Leaving it open wouldn't have given Infinity Wars another week, if anything more movies would have moved there because there would no longer be a Star Wars movie to compete with. It's not like Infinity Wars needs more of an opening. It has three weeks until Han Solo arrives, likely four weeks for plenty of international markets. With the relative frondloadedness of these kind of movies, most of the money will already have been made at that point. The money you lose out by having Han Solo as competition is probably made up by Han Solo keeping all movies away between the two releases. That isn't to say that putting it into another slot wouldn't be better for Han Solo itself.
  3. Most people online - and most sites as well - don't even deal with speculation or rumours. There is little reason to assume that the bits and pieces here and there had much impact at all on online chatter. The few sites who even mention this sort of stuff have a tiny reach when it comes to the general size of the fandom or the internet.
  4. You are talking about this as if predictions were some sort of group consensus. Plenty of people offer plenty of different predictions, there isn't really anything anyone "should" do. So far we have no real numbers whatsoever. The only thing we do know is that the movie is selling a lot better than Rogue One, while having started presales a whole lot earlier. Without having any actual numbers - and even the ones we might get in a month or so won't truly matter, you have to wait for closer to the release for that - and with presales only making up a fraction of what a movie finishes with, there isn't really any reason for someone to change his prediction. We know that TFA had presales that exceeded 100m, I think the last reports were talking about 120-130m or so. That's still a small number compared to the 936m the movie finished with. Seeing how presales weren't just for the OW, it wasn't even half of what TFA made on opening weekend. On top of not knowing any real numbers, we also don't know anything about what people will do before the release. Maybe interest is quite a bit lower in general, maybe there isn't as big of a rush to get tickets right away but huge numbers when the movie gets closer. There are plenty of possible options. It's far too early to draw any conclusions about the total - or any number - yet.
  5. There was nothing unnecessary about Rogue One. It was an attempt to try something beyond the episodes, and it worked out just fine, in terms of reception as well as financially. The idea that Rogue One has somehow hurt the franchise or makes the hype for TLJ less sounds rather absurd. Those who are so into Star Wars that they watch anything that comes out don't care one bit, and those who didn't care enough about Rogue One that they wouldn't watch it, aren't impacted by the existence of that movie. Of course the hype doesn't match TFA's, but that would have happened regardless of whether there was a Rogue One in between or not. Comparisons to how much ESB dropped from ANH are rather moot, because there is no way to properly judge that. ANH got re-releases in 1978 and 1979, with the former basically starting before the original run had ended everywhere. Which of these numbers do you use? Do you also add the 1981 re-release, and if yes, what about the 1981 and 1982 re-releases of ESB? Purely from the original releases, ESB dropped a bit below 20%. The 30% drop happens when you take all re-releases into account, minus the special editions.
  6. That doesn't make any sense to me. Rogue One was a spin-off. In itself it doesn't say anything about how a regular episode would fare. The only thing Rogue One has shown, is that spin-offs do not behave in the same way as episodes do. That's it. It is not possible to draw any conclusions about episodes from that spin-off. Well, I take that back, you can draw the conclusion that a regular episode will do a whole lot better than that. You haven't shown any reason why it should drop to the numbers you mentioned earlier. As I have shown, your 650m number would mean basically 50% drops in all of the core markets. That is simply unrealistic, especially when some of these markets only dropped that much for Rogue One. Now you are suddenly at 700m and even mentioning 800m, which is worlds apart from the number you mentioned before. 750-850m is a realistic drop that could happen, that's basically down 25 to 35%. 650m is not, because at that point core markets would have to behave like they did for Rogue One, and that isn't going to happen. All one needs to do, is to check how episodes tend to start and how Rogue One started. TFA is more or less in line with admission numbers the prequels had in their starts, in some cases exceeding them, but still very much in the same area. Rogue One was in a completely different region. In Germany, the prequels started with 1.79m, 1.85m, and 1.96m admissions. TFA opened with 2.14m. Rogue One with 1m. You can find more or less the same thing in France, the UK, Australia, etc. as well. Rogue One is outside the norm, it has little to do with what an episode will do. Even if the totals may drop, the starts will be very much in line with what episodes usually start with. That alone already means that you are dealing with completely different numbers.
  7. The drops ifor Rogue One in China, the Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia were either in line with or even better than what other international markets showed. Though Japan, Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea did fall rather sharply. There is little reason to treat asia as one entity. It's not like Asia matters much when it comes to Star Wars. It did deliver only 280m out of 1.134b for TFA. Have TLJ run exactly like Rogue One - which is extremely unrealistic, especially due to Japan - and that lowers the intake from 1.134b to a handful of millions below 1b. That means you would need to see drastic drops everywhere to come even close to just 500m (650m minus asia). You are talking about a drop of around 50% everywhere.
  8. That's not really a reasonable assumption. Rogue One didn't run like a regular episode in international markets, it showed a completely different behaviour. While the domestic market was down significantly from TFA as well, it was still an outlier towards the top. Domestically, the drop from TFA to Rogue One was -43%, internationally it was -53%, -55% if you ignore China. The domestic market simply cared less about Rogue One being a spin off than the rest of the world did. In addition to that, the ratio comes from the numbers made, not the other way round. You can't just pick one ratio and apply it to completely different numbers, because the numbers are the very thing that create the ratio in the first place. TFA made over 1b internationally without China. Even with just 624m domestically, for TLJ to come in below BatB worldwide, you are looking at a similar performance internationally as Rogue One, and that isn't going to happen.
  9. His words had nothing to do with whether this is standard in the franchise or not, in fact, they were about something else entirely. And no, your point doesn't stand, because there aren't just "a few exceptions". A few exceptions means that it is virtually the same all the time, with hardly any deviations. But that isn't the case at all. At best it is roughly a 60-40 split, which makes it anything but a clear situation. ROTS alone already has Obi Wan and Anakin to the right of Grievous, Mace and his other Jedi to the right of Palpatine, Obi Wan standing to the right of Anakin, and Yoda standing to the right of Palpatine. Compared to Anakin and Obi Wan standing on the left of Dooku, and Obi Wan facing Grievous from the left. If there was a clear rule for which side the good guy(s) are coming from, you wouldn't have movies where the opposite is happening more often. Nor would you find plenty examples for the very opposite happening in every single movie. And no, I can't be bothered to go through every single scene, I already listed enough to prove that your theory is wrong, I don't have the time to spend on irrelevant stuff like that. Not to mention that this is hardly the right place to discuss minute details of Star Wars itself.
  10. You have to take the competition into account though. This Monday the box office stood at 15m, with Tuesday likely higher. When TFA started to sell tickets, Monday did half of that. Tuesday will probably be the same, so you have twice the regular competition right now. Also, TLJ started yet a week earlier than TFA did. In the end, percentages don't say much at all. A huge share of a small total can be lower than a worse share of a higher total. Not that it is in any way likely that TLJ is outselling TFA, but the percentages from MT don't really say much about the gap.
  11. This is the X-Wings approaching the Death star, what follows is a swing that shows them coming from the right: They couldn't come any clearer from the right. What follows is the move to the Death Star itself, with the DS on the left and the X-Wings coming from the right again. And just like that, when the TIEs enter the battle, they come from the left. You can't just pick and choose the bits that fit your view. Either the good guys come from the left or they don't. It wouldn't have been one bit of a problem to change the approach so that the good guys would come in from the left. There is no clear cut direction the good guys are coming from. There never was one and it is unlikely for there to ever be one.
  12. Again, that's not how it works. The rebels approached the Death Star from the right, not the left. How they went into the trench is irrelevant, you could just as well point out that the TIE Fighter came from the left. The clones came at times from the left and at times from the right. When Luke was facing Vader in his vision, Luke was on the right, when he faced Vader later on, he was on the left, but the view switched around multiple times. When the battle started in ROTJ, Luke was on the right and Vader and the Emperor on the left. There simply is no clear cut choice as where the good guys are coming from. Trying to read anything into where the walkers are coming from is absurd to say the least.
  13. I don't think that is really the case. When the rebels attacked the Death Star in ANH, they came into picture from the right. In TPM you had the Trade federation on the right and the Gungans on the left, in AOTC you had the droid army on the left and the clones on the right, same with the clones entering combat while Obi Wan was facing General Grievous in ROTS. Now, one could say that the clones ended up not being the good guys due to the nature of them serving the Emperor, but at the point of time seen in the movies they were the good guys, and the seperatists clearly weren't. There isn't much of a clear picture of where the good guys come from.
  14. I don't see that at all. When "character trains with master" is already enough to make it a copy of ESB, you are really stretching things. I'm not quite sure where you are seeing things go south for the rest of the good guys either. All that can be seen in the trailer are some big battles. You could pick similar images from Return of the Jedi, and things hardly went south for the good guys in that one. The only real similarities seen so far are "Jedi-training", which doesn't have to be remotely similar to what happened in ESB, and a battle with huge walkers. That being said, it is the mid point of the trilogy, the very point in which the good guys usually have to overcome the biggest odds to prevail. That is basic story-telling, but it doesn't mean it is a copy of ESB.
  15. That's only the price for the fan event, is it not? The regular shows shouldn't be quite as expensive.

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