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George Parr

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  1. I find these sort of comparison to be completely lacking, because they completely ignore what that split is about. It compares one market (well. two) to the rest of the world. There really are just two markets who can make a difference in terms of the split, and those are the domestic market and China. Everything else is meaningless for the average movie (talking about Hollywood here, foreign productions will obviously behave completely different). If a minor market, or even a decently big one, is bigger than expected for a movie, it still won't make a difference, because the additional money is not a whole lot when compared to the entire total. But if it so happens that the domestic market is a huge outlier, than the whole thing will automatically shift towards the domestic side, regardless of whether the other markets are also slightly elevated. That is, unless for some miraculous reason the domestic market and China happen to be two outliers. You also get the opposite side of the coin when the domestic market is weak, or China is simply way bigger than usual. The whole setup of one market versus the others makes comparing the shares useless as soon as that one market is a huge outlier. Looking at the shares turns the entire thing on its head. You need to look at the money, not the shares. If a movies makes 900m domestically, then that doesn't somehow mean that it should do an additional 1.8b internationally. Otherwise you would try to create what the average performance should be out of a single data-point, and that leads nowhere. You would make the outlier the reference point for everything else. The intake defines the share, the shares do not define the intake!
  2. What a useless thing to ask for. This is the third Star Wars trilogy, it would obviously follow different trends than the first trilogy of a franchise, especially since the majority of franchises didn't start off with one of the biggest movies of alltime, like the ST did. And going further with that, it is even more absurd to expect a trilogy to NOT drop drastically when the first movie is the size of a Star Wars, TPM, TFA, or something like Jurassic Park. These kind of movies are the cream of the crop in terms of box office. Keeping such a large audience around is a much much tougher task than doing the same from just a regular hit. It is indeed virtually impossible, as you managed to reach an audience that normally wouldn't bother to see such a movie. It seems rather unlikely that the next Avegners movie will come particularly close to Endgame. Not because people won't like it, or because so many of them they didn't like Endgame, but because there are plenty of people who were just caught up in the hype. Just like they were caught up in the hype with the return of Star Wars in 1999, and in 2015. If you are going with the domestic side, there are quite a few franchises that dropped a ton. Jurassic Park, obviously, Back to the Future, Jaws, Beverly Hills Cop, Matrix rising and then dropping like a rock. Batman would be another case, though it rose with part 3 before it dropped with big time with the 4th one. Worldwide comparisons to other trilogies are largely useless, because they depend highly on the circumstances. A movie can make more money due to far better exchange rates than its predecessor (or other effects like the rise of 3D) even if its audience numbers have tumbled. Just look at POTC, the 4th one has easily the highest international total, and came very close to making the most money worldwide, yet if you look at the actual figures in all the nations, you quickly realise that it didn't come remotely close to matching, much less besting, part 2 or 3. Instead it saw a significant decline that got hidden by certain effects mentioned above, before the 5th one tumbled even further. Is it good if a franchise drops so much over three movies? No. But there are plenty of reasons as for why this unique case developed how it did. A nostalgia-driven boost caused by the unexpected return of not only the franchise itself but also the characters who made it popular in the first place, that made the movie explode in its core markets, at times going way beyond what the franchise had shown in the past. This in turn created interest in the newer markets that didn't really know about the franchise before. That is the recipe for success. That's not something you repeat. Especially when the movie (and the entire lore connected to it) don't really work out in the newer markets, and you drop five movies in five years when before you had never more than one every three. Both TLJ and TROS have roughly been were the franchise had been in the past as well. In some places it went beyond the others (mostly TLJ), in some it was a bit below, but the general level wasn't different from what part 2s and 3s had done in the past. That doesn't mean that you couldn't have asked for TLJ to maybe do slighly better, or for TROS to be more around TLJ instead of failing to best Rogue One, but trying to measure the success by comparing it to a gigantic outlier like TFA, which had everything going its way, simply doesn't make a lot of sense. It seems rather clear that recent events haven't exactly created more excitement for the franchise, and a divided opinion about something never really helps out either. But at the same time, the numbers don't spell doom for the franchise either. edit: sorry for the wall of text
  3. How did they "stop caring about the traitor"? This whole thing followed up right on the heels of TFA. They were in the business of hunting down the resistance and taking over the galaxy. Compared to that, Finn is irrelevant. Not to mention that according to their knowledge he was injured severely by Kylo Ren, so either he would be dead, or he would be on the resistance ship they were busy hunting down. How the First Order dealt with him was perfectly fine. When they stumbled upon him, they tried to execute him in a rather brutal fashion. Now, the movie in general probably could have benefitted from keeping in the scene in which Finn confronts Phasma over how she lowered the shield of Starkiller Base, followed by Phasma taking down the stormtroopers who could hear it. Legendary hero - and son of Anakin Skywalker - who was the essential figure in destroying the Empire. Him stepping in and saving the remaining resistance by facing an entire army on his own is exactly the kind of stuff legends and hope are build upon. A miracle tends to be experienced by only few people, who then spread the word about it, turning it into a huge story.
  4. I don't see any issues with the lore-building in TLJ. There was more to it than in TFA, especially in regards to the force, and it also felt (at least to me) the closest to the prequels out of all the sequels, which might have to do with Johnson being a whole lot more positive about the prequels than Abrams, There weren't a ton of different new worlds, but even that area was a whole lot more creative than in its predecessor. I really don't understand this idea that TLJ somehow wasn't something for hardcore fans. That seems like trying to present one view as the view of the fans, and that simply doesn't work. Just because some hardcore fans didn't like it, doesn't mean that they stand for hardcore fans, or fans in general. Star Wars has always been about real-world politics. It was about that in the OT, it was that in the PT, and it still was about that with the ST. The sequels didn't do anything that prior movies didn't do in more obvious or even harsher points.
  5. That's not the case at all. The plot was clearly structured andthe characters followed a clear line of development as well. That kind of stuff gets posted after every new Star Wars movie, and I really don't know why. The franchise isn't any different than it has been in the past. It hasn't been a dominant franchise internationally for decades now, and even domestically it only dominated occasionally, with the rest of the movie being "merely" among the best. The only real change has been the rise of the asian markets, and Star Wars lack of success there. Which means more movies can perfom at a similar or better level worldwide than in the past. But even without those Star Wars was only ever among the best, not the clear cut number one whenever something new came out (e.g. TPM couldn't beat Jurassic Park worldwide, or come remotely close to Titanic, and neither AOTC nor ROTS were number one worldwide in their years of release, much less anywhere near as strong as LOTR or Harry Potter internationally). So, all in all, Star Wars is right where it has been for a very long time: among the best, not the dominant franchise in the world.
  6. I don't think it makes much of a difference at all. People still need to go and see the movie, they don't just appear at a theater and get forced to watch a specific movie that they don't get to choose. There might be a very small benefit due to having more expensive shows available, but that is pretty negligible compared to the gross as a whole.
  7. Second trend is up, Jumanji jumped up a bit, while Star Wars dropped, otherwise no changes: #1 SW9 275k #2 Knives Out 195k #3 Frozen 2 160k #4 Jumanji 2 145k #5 Zauberhafte Schwestern 110k #6 Kaninchen 100k #7 Geheimnis 90k #8 Spione Undercover 60k #9 The Grudge 55k #10 Queen & Slim 32.5k
  8. What's kind of funny is how TROS and ROTS compare at this specific point in time: ROTS: 612k 3rd weekend, 4.368m total TROS: 610k 3rd weekend, 4.372m total Just 2k apart on the weekend, and less than 4k in total. What are the odds of that? ROTS should move ahead over the next few weeks though.
  9. That sounds rather pessimistic to me. The movie is heading for 140-150m domestically at the very least. That means to reach your number the international total would only be 110-120m. The movie might already reach the lower end of that range from the holdovers alone. I think 130m internationally should be possible, if not more, depending on the legs.
  10. It's opening in Germany this weekend, and it might add another $7m there, maybe more if it develops great legs. There are also some smaller European markets opening as well, so maybe that could make it 10m if you add it on the German total. That leaves Japan, where it will open late January. I have absolutely no idea how it will fare there. Maybe that's another 10-15m or so based on how Murder on the Orient Express did there? Not sure if the holdovers have enough steam to make up the gap to 300m, unless the domestic total goes quite a bit beyond 150m or Japan really surprises.
  11. The setup was just fine, in fact, it allowed for something entirely different than in the past. Snoke got killed because having Kylo Ren as main villain would have been far more interesting than repeating ROTJ, which is what the setup would have been if Snoke had stayed alive. Rey not being from any particular background was perfectly fine as well. Apart from the Skywalkers we hadn't seen any Jedi coming from any sort of special lineage, so why would it supposed to be oh so important that Rey is from one? I have no idea why this needs to be constantly repeated, but Rey was pushed back the entire time in TFA, before eventually besting a severely wounded Kylo Ren who shouldn't even have been alive at that point, much less fighting someone. TLJ then proved that they were equals. So yes, he was more than enough of a threat. Especially with a superior military on his side. There wasn't much of an indication that the Emperor was stronger than Yoda, and their battle showed that he wasn't, yet that fight still had everything you needed. The eventual outcome is known anyway. Having the two main characters also BE the defining characters for each side was something that we didn't have before. Removing Snoke granted much more freedom for the story than keeping him alive would have. So much for not leaving anything to work with... There was nothing dubious about the way Luke died. And who cares whether something has a precedent or not. The movies have constantly shown new stuff about the force, including different capabilities. This whole thing already existed in other Star Wars material, so it was hardly something you could consider out of line. And it was indeed the logical approach to take. Because if Luke is still alive, you are having an even bigger issue on how to use him in the story. If anything, TLJ allowed Luke to play a key role in the whole story, and it offered a great setup when it came to Luke, as his act is what revives hope in the galaxy, only for Abrams to completely ignore the whole thing in TROS. Just because you don't like the story or cannot see a path from where to take things doesn't mean that Johnson acted selfishly or didn't think about what could follow. There were plenty of interesting paths set up, which could be taken in multiple directions as well. It didn't exactly offer the world's best cliffhanger ever, but acting as if you couldn't tell an amazing story from what was left is just absurd.
  12. No, because all you need to do is look at where it jumped from. Corpse already explained that well enough. All you really need to do is look at how the past week went: Frozen made 90m on Monday, 105m on Tuesday, 195m on Wednesday, 170m on Thursday and 180m on Friday. In other words: last week saw a giant boost happening right from Wednesday on. The first two weekdays were a whole lot smaller than the last three weekdays. This means that there is plenty of room to jump on Monday or Tuesday, while not so much growth the rest of the week, simply because the point of comparison is much larger to begin with.
  13. That weekend was also the last time we had this exact holiday schedule. Kind of fitting actually.
  14. The Hobbit also increased 77% on christmas day, while TROS only managed to increase about 59%. I don't see much of a reason to assume that this will be different this time around. The numbers are quite a bit larger, so the increases should be worse.
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