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Everything posted by Aristis

  1. The ATP was a (bad) guess of mine The prediction is $3M to $3,5M then...
  2. 19€ is insane My ticket cost 11€ - I could imagine around that being the ATP so the 10,5$ could be way to low. I thought 2D wouldn't be that expensive though... Still, $3M OW should be around the prediction for now, shouldn't it?
  3. Not the OW! MarkG, as I said, predicted 200k (4-day) and 250k (5-day). That may be $3M 5-day OW. It could go higher of course but that's far from certain. Where do those high predictions come from just yet? $11M would be lifetime number for now
  4. It's just the last few days that my interest in BO began after a long time again. I hope Tenet can do good business to have me interested even more again. If german cinemas die that's not my fault, in the last 6 weeks I've been to movies 5 times (first Inception [I didn't see it in cinemas when it first came out], then LOTR 1-3 extended and yesterday Tenet). I really hope that it reignites the BO. MarkG predicts 200k (4-day) and 250k (5-day) so between $2,1M and $2,5M 4-day/$2,6M and $2,8M 5-day. I hope it'll be more but that seems like a safe first bet.
  5. I'm pretty sure that TP will be above 10$ (I'd say around 10,50$ is likely). MarkG expects 1,05M total so around $11M total for now.
  6. Last WE drive ins in Germany reached 100k+ admissions. With the first federal states opening cinemas on May 18th, that might have been the peak already, after many weeks of huge increases. On the InsideKino forum the rough numbers of admissions in drive ins have been shared, some of them are: Joker 32k admissions (3rd biggest release) BB3 22k (5th) F3 18k (6th) Bohemian 12k (8th) http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=5078 As for Joker that means ~4,17M total and that it is the biggest DC movie in Germany (topping Superman (79)
  7. China did better, cause they have more options as the whole systems and peoples rights are different. Still, would they have been more open about the issue and wouldn't people be afraid to have bad news for higher authorities, things might be different - though western countries may still be hit hard... People would not have accepted full lockdowns a month ago. And I'll say it for the third time: It would have been great to have had a response more like SK, but I don't know if that would have been possible. There would have been the need of testing and some shut downs v
  8. The point is though that measueres like this haven't been taken since at least WW2. Europe isn't like China were you can do things like that out of a sudden. Those measures would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. People slowly learned how bad of a threat this crisis is and that these things have to be done. Of course that is an disadvantage compared to a totalitarian dictatorship where people accept things. So ultimately it is about the european love of freedom. You assume too much in your comment. I don't hate communism (even though sadly I don't think it works). I just don't
  9. The goal always was to slow down the outbreak so that the health care won't be overwhelmed. And as numbers grew bigger more and more parts of the daily life have been shut down. It still is a mitigation policy and not suppression, so either 70% of the population will be infected in the next years or there will be a vaccination. I would have prefered to do it more like SK but the government really was far too sleepy for that to happen - as I said, they did awful in prevention and the could have done better facing the outbreak. I don't think her handeling of this crisis is in any way
  10. Merkels 70% thing was just about R0 getting <1 if 2/3 of the population got it and thus are (hopefully) immune. That is what scientists told her and not what she wanted for Germany. Without vaccination that's what happens over time. Germany didn't do good in prevention. But I think since the outbreak really hit us the government did rather well, though I'm sure we're lucky not to be hit too hard. And I really don't think living in chinese conditions would do anything better really. That's a big part of what led to this crisis - covering up things, silencing doctors a
  11. But most respiratory diseases don't have such a broad spread, right? So trying to reach herd immunity would cause many of those cases.
  12. In this whole herd-immunity discussion: What is about possible long term consequences for health? I heard about the possibility of lung fibrosis and reduced lung volume even among "mild" cases (not clear yet wether permanent or not). Or I've read about the virus attacking the testicles and therefore maybe leading to infertility. (I don't know where I've read both of this and my questions are more about the fundamental lack of talk about possible consequences) So does anyone know about such consequences and why the aren't addressed? And how much of a threat the are?
  13. According to this article the ICU with ventilators are up to 30,000 from 20,000 in Germany now. There are 7,000 hospitalized Corona patients, among them 1,500 in ICU of which 1,100 need ventilators. https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/coronavirus-news-trump-befuerchtet-100-000-tote-in-den-usa-nrw-plant-epidemie-gesetz_id_11576018.html And the "cure not worse than the virus"-calls are increasing here too. The government tries stop them with statements that the measures are not to be discussed until 20 April... https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/diskussion-mass
  14. I read that it isn't strictly determined, some do and some don't. Doesn't make it easier, especially because I didn't find any clue which is the prevalent way...
  15. So it seems german government wants to change its Testing policy to be a bit more like South Korea (which they are pretty late for...). It's annoying we don't have the numbers of tests done here but it seems that at the moment Germany does (or at least is capable of) 300,000 to 500,00 per week. Until mid-April 100,000 per day shall be possible and 200,000 per day until the end of April. According to the german health minister atm we test to confirm but we shall test to be ahead.
  16. So there are only two cinemas still playing in Germany, two drive-ins that had 1,892 admissions combined last WE. I wonder why there aren't more drive-ins still holding shows...
  17. Do you have a different calendar? Is it possible you confused the months or is it in future perfect?
  18. So as Taruseth expected, the 1st Trend was too optimistic... Känguru 85k (-74%/-77%) Invisible 40k (-60%) My Spy 37,5k (i.P.) Onward 35k (-78%/-81%) Lady Business 27,5k (i.P.)
  19. 1st Trend: With the uncertainity this might be pessimistic (or not): Känguru 110k (-66%/-71%) Onward 50k (-68%/-73%) Everything else below 50k
  20. Thursday numbers: #1 Känguru 18k (-49%) €154k / $172k #2 Invisible 6,4k (-36%) €54k / $60k #3 Nightlife 6,4k (-33%) €54k / $60k #4 Gentlemen 5,3k (-41%) €45k / $50k #5 Narziss&Goldmund 5,1k (-) €43k / $48k
  21. With things getting more and more unclear, after last weeks Känguru there's another german "hope" opening, Narziss und Goldmund. What I read, the movie cost around €10M. The InsideKino prediction is 80k WE and 250k total - it'll be a huge flop... If really all cinemas close (which in three cities already happened it seems) and stay closed for quite some time, I fear this year could be the first time ever to stay below 100M admissions... There have been 6 deaths yet and we're probably close to 3000 infected. I fear the german reaction to all this isn't very strict. Hopef
  22. Weekend Estimates: #1 Känguru 320k (4-day), 375k (i.P.) - 3rd biggest OW of the year #2 Onward 157,5k (4-day), 185k (i.P.) - 9th biggest OW of the year #3 Sonic 110k (-43%) 1,115M #4 Nightlife 110k (-35%) 1,025M - 4th 1M+ movie of the year #5 Invisible Man 100k (-16%) 245k #6 Gentlemen 65k (-26%/-40%) 205k #7 Bloodshot 57,5k (i.P.) #8 Parasite 47,5k (-39%) 937,5k - great drop considering the DVD release was last Thursday
  23. There were some surveys saying that people in Germany don't really fear the virus that much, which is a bit surprising to me too... The only thing that changed seem to be some panic buyings. Maybe it is because many people trust the government. Especially the health ministers image greatly improved since the beginning of the spreading virus.
  24. I've read that too, and it seems that if you had been infected you're immune at least temporarily. And with 2/3 of people being immune spread of the virus will be less than one per person and therefore it'll start to vanish.
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