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Aristis

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Posts posted by Aristis

  1. 38 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

     

    My cinema plays 2 4DX shows a day for Tenet, both are "selling out" until Sunday with about 25 seats/show, TP is €19,-- (about US$ 22,40). Standard TP is €12,50 for the weekend, that's about US$14,70  - it's the running time, even without 3D those are not cheap tickets.

    19€ is insane :blink: My ticket cost 11€ - I could imagine around that being the ATP so the 10,5$ could be way to low. I thought 2D wouldn't be that expensive though... Still, $3M OW should be around the prediction for now, shouldn't it?

  2. 53 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

    Both germany and france come in above 8m each? that was even higher than interstellar opening number

    Not the OW! MarkG, as I said, predicted 200k (4-day) and 250k (5-day). That may be $3M 5-day OW. It could go higher of course but that's far from certain. Where do those high predictions come from just yet?

     

    $11M would be lifetime number for now

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  3. It's just the last few days that my interest in BO began after a long time again. I hope Tenet can do good business to have me interested even more again.

     

    If german cinemas die that's not my fault, in the last 6 weeks I've been to movies 5 times (first Inception [I didn't see it in cinemas when it first came out], then LOTR 1-3 extended :wub: and yesterday Tenet). I really hope that it reignites the BO.

     

    MarkG predicts 200k (4-day) and 250k (5-day) so between $2,1M and $2,5M 4-day/$2,6M and $2,8M 5-day. I hope it'll be more but that seems like a safe first bet.

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  4. Last WE drive ins in Germany reached 100k+ admissions. With the first federal states opening cinemas on May 18th, that might have been the peak already, after many weeks of huge increases.

     

    On the InsideKino forum the rough numbers of admissions in drive ins have been shared, some of them are:

    Joker 32k admissions (3rd biggest release)

    BB3 22k (5th)

    F3 18k (6th)

    Bohemian 12k (8th)

    http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=5078

     

    As for Joker that means ~4,17M total and that it is the biggest DC movie in Germany (topping Superman (79) 4,15M)

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  5. 7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

    I am not a fan, but you must admit that their response to this outbreak (in their own country no less) has been vastly superior to the one in Europe. Mentioning the beautiful freedoms of European people "not accepting things" (except a complete lockdown I guess) is a non sequitur, it has nothing to do with the criminal incompetence of their leaders.

     

    And you can't dismiss South Korea either because it is somehow not "comparable" (?). Biology and medicine guided their actions, they are the same everywhere. There is a very easy comparison to make, it is another country where the response has been much better.

    China did better, cause they have more options as the whole systems and peoples rights are different. Still, would they have been more open about the issue and wouldn't people be afraid to have bad news for higher authorities, things might be different - though western countries may still be hit hard...

     

    People would not have accepted full lockdowns a month ago.

     

    And I'll say it for the third time: It would have been great to have had a response more like SK, but I don't know if that would have been possible. There would have been the need of testing and some shut downs very early on - which people here maybe would not have accepted. SK is different from Europe even though they are a democracy too. They are eastern which means less individualism (sometimes not that bad) and had an outbreak not that long ago...

     

    ... Germany acted awfully when it comes to prevention which is why acting like SK became impossible. All that I want say is that when the outbreak occurred they finally didn't do that bad and there actions were guided by science too.

    7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

    No we must not. The instant popularity of the concept in the case of the coronavirus is very suspect, and probably linked (again) to the desire to restart the economy and save the stock market rather than human lives. The priority must be to save as many lives as possible, Merely "flattening the curve" still means that ~1% of the population will die, just over many months.

     

    Maybe a vaccine will be found sooner than expected, maybe the wide use of masks will help, maybe a treatment will be available in a few months... Either way, it is a novel virus and it is way too early to just give up and decide to let 70% of the entire population get infected. A lockdown or semi-lockdown should remain for much longer than the minimum required to "flatten the curve".

    As I said: The failure in prevention made it impossible to act like SK. They had small clusters whereas in Germany and Europe it's already spread. I think flattening the curve is the only possibility now.

     

    And for the economy it would have been much better to have a SK response. They still have shops open. Flattening the curve is probably the worst you can do for your economy as it means a long shut down or at least closure of unesential business. As soon as you reopen big, the curve won't be flattened.

     

    So, to sum up: Suppression would have been the best way. I think that would have required better prevention though. Most leaders failed at that, not taking the virus seriously just soon enough, so maybe we just have to live with flattening the curve (which probably kills less than 1% of the population given the death rate with good health care, but is still more than would haven been necessary).

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  6. 2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

    The point is that the response in Europe has been absolutely dreadful, this isn't about how much you love freedom or hate communism. There is nothing about democracy or human rights that prevented competence in this crisis, especially for rich countries. If the obvious superiority of the Chinese response bothers you so much, then look at South Korea (who had to deal with a significant outbreak and share a border with China), Taiwan or New Zealand.

    The point is though that measueres like this haven't been taken since at least WW2. Europe isn't like China were you can do things like that out of a sudden. Those measures would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. People slowly learned how bad of a threat this crisis is and that these things have to be done. Of course that is an disadvantage compared to a totalitarian dictatorship where people accept things. So ultimately it is about the european love of freedom.

     

    You assume too much in your comment. I don't hate communism (even though sadly I don't think it works). I just don't like the chinese system. The thing is, we will never know how big this obvious superiority of chinese response really was... And, as I said, things are easy if you can do anything. But as you seem to be a fan of the chinese system this discussion is probably useless.

     

    I never said Germany our Europe (which is hard to see as one) had a great response, especially in prevention. And I said that Germany should have acted more like South Korea. But even if that country is a democracy it's not really comparable to Europe (there have been many discussions about differences between western and eastern people here).

     

    Europe could and should have done better but people just didn't realize soon enough how bad this is. Next time hopefully it'll be better.

    2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

    If 70% of people get infected then the vulnerable won't be saved.

    If the curve is flattened and the health care system won't be overwhelmed more of the vulnerable will be saved than if nothing happened. And as I said, it would have been better to stop the outbreak rather than to slow it. But they probably where too late for this and therefore we must live with flatten the curve.

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  7. 3 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

    She mentioned that it would probably happen and then didn't immediately shut down the entire country (or strongly suggested it to local authorities). It shows that she was taking into account other factors in this crisis, economical or political. Saving lives by containing the virus wasn't the #1 priority.

     

    People have rightly mocked Boris Johnson and his "herd immunity strategy", but it seems it was implicitly the mainstream European strategy after containment failed, for a couple of weeks at least - before the death toll exploded in Italy then Spain.

    The goal always was to slow down the outbreak so that the health care won't be overwhelmed. And as numbers grew bigger more and more parts of the daily life have been shut down. It still is a mitigation policy and not suppression, so either 70% of the population will be infected in the next years or there will be a vaccination. I would have prefered to do it more like SK but the government really was far too sleepy for that to happen - as I said, they did awful in prevention and the could have done better facing the outbreak.

     

    I don't think her handeling of this crisis is in any way comparable to BJ. When they had to shut down they did. It just isn't possible to do things as fast as in China. He didn't want to shut down things until he was forced to.

     

    3 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

    But the pandemic condition is to lock everyone in their homes, it isn't a great time to celebrate the great European freedoms.

    Competent doctors and critics were also been "silenced"/ignored in European media, the stock market was more important than saving lives (and perhaps still is). It doesn't get worse than the current situation given the wealth of these countries, or what has been achieved elsewhere. It is a systemic failure of historic proportions.

    These lock downs are temporary. Freedom ends where someone elses begins. People can be free again when this is over, but most here think it's the right thing to safe the vulnerable.

     

    I think doctors being "silenced" (and especially ignored) here is very different from there.

     

    Things are by no means perfect here. Some may be better elsewhere. But europe has some advantages and I'm happy to live here.

     

    As a side note, what I find funny is that things China was accused for a few months or weeks ago (drones monitoring crowds, lockdowns...) are done here now. Doesn't change my post though.

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  8. 46 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

    The Futurist's rants are not a good source of information, in general but especially not in this thread.

     

    I wouldn't put Germany in the group of countries who handled it "pretty well", the number of cases and deaths speak for itself: the pandemic isn't contained. Merkel has been about as bad as other European leaders, at one point she was open to the idea of letting ~70% of the population get infected. And I don't know if the end of the lockdown would be easier to manage there, they have the same problem as everyone else: how to prevent another major outbreak?

     

    Germany may be the most competent of the big European countries but that is not a very high bar. It also isn't clear if the lower numbers are not mainly for geographical reasons, as the parts of Europe worst hit at first were west and south-west; East European countries have an even better record (for now at least).

     

    And living in Chinese conditions doesn't so bad at the moment when it comes to pandemics measures, at least they are allowed to leave their houses.

    Merkels 70% thing was just about R0 getting <1 if 2/3 of the population got it and thus are (hopefully) immune. That is what scientists told her and not what she wanted for Germany. Without vaccination that's what happens over time.

     

    Germany didn't do good in prevention. But I think since the outbreak really hit us the government did rather well, though I'm sure we're lucky not to be hit too hard.

     

    And I really don't think living in chinese conditions would do anything better really. That's a big part of what led to this crisis - covering up things, silencing doctors and critics (and that isn't meant to be an excuse for the awful corona prevention policy). Not everythings perfect living in a european country but there shouldn't be a doubt that it's better living here than in a totalitarian country.

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  9. 33 minutes ago, MadJosh said:

    Most people will recover with no lasting effects (80%) is what i read. Most respiratory diseases in which hospital assistance is required tend to cause lasting damage to our lungs. Its not like Coronavirus is unique to that

    But most respiratory diseases don't have such a broad spread, right? So trying to reach herd immunity would cause many of those cases.

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  10. In this whole herd-immunity discussion: What is about possible long term consequences for health?

     

    I heard about the possibility of lung fibrosis and reduced lung volume even among "mild" cases (not clear yet wether permanent or not). Or I've read about the virus attacking the testicles and therefore maybe leading to infertility.

    (I don't know where I've read both of this and my questions are more about the fundamental lack of talk about possible consequences)

     

    So does anyone know about such consequences and why the aren't addressed? And how much of a threat the are?

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  11. According to this article the ICU with ventilators are up to 30,000 from 20,000 in Germany now. There are 7,000 hospitalized Corona patients, among them 1,500 in ICU of which 1,100 need ventilators.

     

    https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/coronavirus-news-trump-befuerchtet-100-000-tote-in-den-usa-nrw-plant-epidemie-gesetz_id_11576018.html

     

    And the "cure not worse than the virus"-calls are increasing here too. The government tries stop them with statements that the measures are not to be discussed until 20 April...

     

    https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/diskussion-massnahmen-corona-101.html

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  12. 35 minutes ago, AndyK said:

    I heard that Germany doesn't record death cause as CoV if they die of an underlying health condition, they record the health condition itself even if CoV is present, is that true?

    I read that it isn't strictly determined, some do and some don't. Doesn't make it easier, especially because I didn't find any clue which is the prevalent way...

  13. So it seems german government wants to change its Testing policy to be a bit more like South Korea (which they are pretty late for...). It's annoying we don't have the numbers of tests done here but it seems that at the moment Germany does (or at least is capable of) 300,000 to 500,00 per week. Until mid-April 100,000 per day shall be possible and 200,000 per day until the end of April.

     

    According to the german health minister atm we test to confirm but we shall test to be ahead.

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  14. With things getting more and more unclear, after last weeks Känguru there's another german "hope" opening, Narziss und Goldmund. What I read, the movie cost around €10M. The InsideKino prediction is 80k WE and 250k total - it'll be a huge flop...

     

    If really all cinemas close (which in three cities already happened it seems) and stay closed for quite some time, I fear this year could be the first time ever to stay below 100M admissions...

     

    There have been 6 deaths yet and we're probably close to 3000 infected. I fear the german reaction to all this isn't very strict. Hopefully the low death count indicates that it isn't that bad...

  15. Weekend Estimates:

     

    #1 Känguru 320k (4-day), 375k (i.P.) - 3rd biggest OW of the year

    #2 Onward 157,5k (4-day), 185k (i.P.) - 9th biggest OW of the year

     

    #3 Sonic 110k (-43%) 1,115M

    #4 Nightlife 110k (-35%) 1,025M - 4th 1M+ movie of the year

    #5 Invisible Man 100k (-16%) 245k

    #6 Gentlemen 65k (-26%/-40%) 205k

    #7 Bloodshot 57,5k (i.P.)

    #8 Parasite 47,5k (-39%) 937,5k - great drop considering the DVD release was last Thursday

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  16. 5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

    700 cases in Germany and will reach 1000 tomm. How come there is no impact at all?

    There were some surveys saying that people in Germany don't really fear the virus that much, which is a bit surprising to me too... The only thing that changed seem to be some panic buyings.

    Maybe it is because many people trust the government. Especially the health ministers image greatly improved since the beginning of the spreading virus.

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  17. 27 minutes ago, john2000 said:

    guys it will probably be  dumb question, but i have read,heard from doctors t from the articles online, that a way that the virus could end would be that it affects enough people that they become immune and the spread stops or something like that, could anyone explain it to me :)

    I've read that too, and it seems that if you had been infected you're immune at least temporarily. And with 2/3 of people being immune  spread of the virus will be less than one per person and therefore it'll start to vanish.

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