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About hw64

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    Indie Sensation

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  1. BOM's estimates of tickets sold shouldn't really be taken at face value for recent blockbusters. The methodology that BOM uses (dividing gross by yearly average ticket price) means that the admissions for pretty much all big blockbuster films after and including Avatar are overestimated by a chunky margin. Rather than 108m, I'd guess that TFA sold somewhere in the region of 95-97m tickets, which would put the ticket price average at ~$9.66-$9.86; for comparison, BOM, with its yearly ticket price averages, uses an average ticket price of ~$8.66. If you make the argument that pre-3D yearly averages are far closer to the actual average ticket price for a given blockbuster in that year (which I do), then a good estimate for TPM, which made $431,088,295 in its initial theatrical run with an average ticket price of $5.08 in 1999, would be ~84.86m tickets sold. So by any estimate, TFA was bigger than TPM and the biggest ticket seller since Titanic, but I wouldn't agree that it was leagues ahead of Episode I.
  2. They're very similar performance-wise - TFA certainly wasn't massively bigger than TPM. Accounting for the effects of ticket price inflation and market expansion from 1999 to 2015, I'd say that TFA was at most 15-20% bigger than TPM worldwide.
  3. Would agree with this. I'd expect a 48-49% final domestic share.
  4. It's still very unlikely, but not impossible. And yes, that kind of reasoning was extremely shortsighted to say the least.
  5. Overseas predictions in this thread from December 2017 onwards, prior to the film's release: $850m $950m $800m-$850m $900m $800m $850m $800m+ "Over $768m" "I think it clears $800m OS at least." $750m $750m max The majority of people had it at the $800-$900m mark. It's underperformed worse domestically than overseas, but to say most people projected $700-$750m is objectively wrong - pretty much nobody predicted an overseas gross as low as $710m. And a bomb in China wasn't expected, either. It was looking likely to do worse than Rogue One, but not as low as $40m.
  6. Completely impossible. Would have to drop 20% week on week every single week for the rest of its run to even equal The Last Jedi's total, without Japan that is. Without putting too much work into this, it's pretty clear that Jumanji's overseas total will be under $550m.
  7. $9.9m weekend, including about $0.9m in China, so $9m overseas minus China for the weekend. $17m week, including about $1.8m in China, so $15.2m overseas minus China for the week.
  8. As absurd of a notion as it is, Avatar 2 is the first film since Avatar that has a non-zero chance of toppling Avatar's $2.79b. Even though its chance may be 0.1%, that's still greater than the chance every other film released since 2009 has had to topple Avatar, put together.
  9. Have you not seen all the "I'm sure Disney are wiping their tears with their millions" posts, the revisionist "everyone's expectations were too high - a less than 3x multiplier in December was supposed to happen"/"it was always going to bomb in China" type posts, all the circlejerk-y "oh no, only the Xth highest-grossing film of all time, what a disappointment" posts? I'm not talking about in this thread specifically right now, but there has been a lot of that going about. Perpetuated by the same few people, perhaps, but still, there definitely are people saying it.
  10. I'm talking specifically of the people who claim that The Last Jedi isn't a disappointment, that it made what it was supposed to make, and that everyone's pre-release predictions were just too high.
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