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hw64

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Everything posted by hw64

  1. 3D revenue shares through MLK weekend: Domestic: 58% of $576m. International (without China): 54% of $1.13b. China: 99% of $224m.
  2. He's right. ATP for Avatar was around $10 compared to the Q4 2009 average of $7.61. Avatar 2's average ticket price is very likely $14+, so it'll end up at around 48 million admissions compared to Avatar's mid-70M tickets, say like 73-76.
  3. Not horrible, just not the exceptional late legs it'd need to get to $700m. Gross will be circa-$600m through Monday with the last 7 days (Tue-Mon) being around $29m. Weekly 25% drops from here gets it to 3x that number, so $87m, taking the total to $687m or so. Still not enough.
  4. What if Endgame made $600m dom off the back of Infinity War's $670m? Even The Last Jedi's $620m was considered pretty disappointing off the back of The Force Awakens's $936m. It's the old fallacy of "removing all context from a box office run to make it look better than it is". Expectations and context matter — an extremely financially successful movie which is one of the highest-grossing movies of all time can still nevertheless be a disappointment if it fails to meet reasonable pre-release expectations of its performance.
  5. The problem is that you're double-counting by adding in predicted Wednesday and Thursday grosses internationally and then adding in an international 3-day weekend which you've worked out based off of the $93m international weekend last week, which isn't a 3-day and which already includes some Wednesday and Thursday grosses in certain markets.
  6. International weekends are never 3-days, they're a sum of all the "weekends" in overseas territories, which is Fri-Sun in a lot of markets but Thu-Sun and Wed-Sun in some others. The actual international 3-day last week was probably around $80-$82m.
  7. You realize that $93m isn't a 3-day, right?
  8. Puss's 4-day was 17% ahead of Showman. If it has the same holds as Showman off the 4-day and holds at an average of 17% ahead for the rest of its run, then it literally makes $200.1m. This isn't an actual analysis of Puss's chances to hit $200m, I just thought it was funny to note.
  9. $39.8m over the 4-day with these updated estimates. Close enough that it could still cross $40m with actuals, but that $0.2m will basically need to come entirely from Monday, as the $32.5m 3-day is basically set in stone at this point.
  10. That $1.331b through Sunday international gross includes a gross of $211.8m through Sunday in China. The overseas total and the overseas market grosses on BOM are independent of each other; the overseas total is often fully up-to-date, but BOM is often slow to update the individual market totals. The fact that the overseas total is at $1.331b but the China gross on BOM is at $188m doesn't mean that the $1.331b overseas total only includes $188m from China — that $1.331b includes the most recently reported $211.8m through Sunday in China, it's just that the China gross on BOM, which is again independent from the overseas total, hasn't been updated yet.
  11. Wednesday and Thursday figures are rolled into the weekend in certain overseas markets where the box office "weekend" is defined as Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun. The international weekend gross of $88.6m isn't a Fri-Sun gross, it's a sum of the "weekend" grosses in each overseas market, so that's Fri-Sun in some markets, but Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun in some others.
  12. $1,223.6b was its overseas gross through Tuesday. The $18.7m comes from Wednesday and Thursday grosses in overseas markets where Wednesday and Thursday aren't counted as part of the weekend.
  13. Scream: No Way Home: Looks decently similar to me, especially in the 18-34 audience pull and the Latino/Hispanic draw. No Way Home drew far more kids, obviously, but there's a good amount of overlap here. In any case, regardless of the extent to which you think Scream was effective competition for No Way Home, I think it's pretty evident that it was, in any case, significantly more competition than Avatar 2 faced this weekend.
  14. All of the mentioned movies had significant new releases on their MLK weekends and then no new significant releases the week after. No Way Home and Sing 2 had Scream ($34m), Aquaman had Glass ($46m), Jumanji had Bad Boys ($73m) and Dolittle ($28m). Avatar 2 doesn't have anything on that level this MLK weekend.
  15. Very difficult for Avatar to make gains on Maverick on any given week going forward with those summer weekdays and with the quality of Maverick's holds. Avatar would need to significantly outperform Maverick on the weekends to make up for the weekday deficit, which is likely to be $4m+ per week through at least mid-February. Even on this holiday-boosted weekend it's only $32.4m compared to Maverick's $29.6m, which isn't a huge difference (with a normal weekend they'd basically be equal), and it'll only get more difficult to keep up with Maverick's weekend holds from here.
  16. Next weekend will drop the difference a lot, as Maverick pays back Avatar's holiday weekend advantage with a holiday weekend of its own. Avatar should be around $7m above Maverick on this 4-day weekend compared to Maverick's equivalent Fri-Mon, and Maverick made $32.3m on its own 4-day this weekend, so Avatar will have to make $25m+ over Fri-Mon this week to come out at net neutral over these two 4-days.
  17. There are no official dollar grosses for overseas territories outside of the studio ones. Plugging a local currency gross into a Google exchange rates calculator and getting a different figure from the studio estimates doesn't necessarily mean that the studio estimates are wrong, as we don't know how, when and at what rates the studio is converting the local currency figures.
  18. I see circa-$100m at absolute best. Literally figuratively impossible that it comes anywhere close to challenging Demon Slayer's $360m. Edit: and looking at Detective Pikachu's performing, even that's probably way too high as a ceiling. $60-$70m seems the likely max if it's very well-received in Japan.
  19. There's no need for this fanboy nonsense of trying to diminish the achievements of other movies to prop up Avatar 2. Top Gun's domestic success is no less impressive or relevant than Avatar 2's international success, and there'll be a good argument to be made that Maverick's overall run was more impressive than Avatar 2's given the context behind the two runs (higher ticket prices for Avatar 2, holiday vs. summer release, no competition vs. heavy competition, Avatar 2 having far higher pre-ordained levels of likely success as the sequel to the highest-grossing movie of all time, etc.)
  20. That may (or may not) be true, but the claim was made in the context of comparing Avatar and The Greatest Showman. Assuming Showman had an Avatar-ish ATP and there's no need to adjust up/down Avatar's opening, that's $77m compared to $9m or probably $12m+ with a regular Friday opening, so Avatar had around 6.5 to 8.5x the level of starting ticket demand. I don't think it's anywhere near true at those levels.
  21. Yeah I'm also incredibly dubious of the claim that it's harder to retain volume from a lower level of gross than it is is from a far higher one. Conventional wisdom says it's the complete opposite, and even without doing any number crunching there are far more examples of recent movies with lower grosses having huge multipliers/legs than there are examples of $100m openers with the same kinds of multipliers. You could make the argument that a lower gross makes it a bit harder to spread word of mouth, but that completely pales in comparison to how naturally more difficult it is to retain gross from an $100m+ starting point than it is from, say, a $10m starting point — like it's not even close. Look at what Puss is doing right with relative ease, for example — that's completely unreplicable for an $100m+ opener. I'm interested to know where you're coming from here, but to me that assertion is categorically and demonstrably false.
  22. Being generous given Cameron's track record, I'd say sub-20% at this point. Seems to be heading towards a mid-to-high $600m range.
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