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hw64

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Everything posted by hw64

  1. Not sure if I'm reading the Maoyan app correctly, but presales for Avatar for Friday now look to be up to 2.015m yuan, or just over $300k. Can someone else confirm I'm reading that right?
  2. I completely agree. If you think the way box office legs have been trending in recent years is bad, with movies becoming more and more frontloaded to their opening weekends, then the "legs" for a premier access movie are even worse in comparison. From the data I've seen, movies released on streaming services tend to make 80-90% of their total gross in the first week, and very little thereafter. That's obviously a natural result of the distribution method: streaming removes almost all of the barriers to entry in comparison to watching a movie at the theaters, the result being that w
  3. Pretty much nothing. The film itself will almost certainly be finished well before December 2022. The only possible reason for another delay would be if cinemas aren't ready for Avatar 2 by then, which is extremely unlikely.
  4. Look at you all, a big bunch of drama queens writing cinema's obituary prematurely. This thread will be embarrassing to look back at in a few years.
  5. Don't think this has been posted yet: jonplandau Snapped this picture of Jim sharing concept art with the cast during our rehearsal period for the Avatar sequels.
  6. Zero. While we don't know the full details of the reorganization, common sense and the information that has been provided both suggest that the extent of the shift towards streaming is nowhere near that which would lead to Avatar 2 being sent to Disney+ rather than theaters. The reorganization is concerning for sure, but the extent of the shift is being heavily overstated by some: Disney are far, far from abandoning theatrical distribution entirely, and the only way a movie like Avatar 2 would end up on Disney+ is if Disney were doing just that (and even then I think Cameron would
  7. I'm aware, yes. Disney's operating income from studio entertainment was $2.7b in 2019 and $3.0b in 2018, compared to Netflix's $2.6b in 2019 and $1.6b in 2018. I wasn't try to make any broader of a statement than pointing out the conflation of revenue and profit. Certainly not disagreeing with the fact that DTC could easily surpass studio entertainment in profitability some years down the line. Disney certainly seems to think it can.
  8. $18b a year in revenue, not in profit. Netflix brought in about $20b in streaming subscription revenue in 2019; of that, around $1.9b was net profit. Of course, Disney's exploitation of its content vaults will lower expenses compared to Netflix, but still, there's a very big difference between $18b in revenue and $18b in profit.
  9. Avatar has never been re-released in China, unless you're talking about the 2010 extended edition release 5 months after it initially left theaters, which is an awful comparable for obvious reasons. Edit: as above, per @titanic2187, the 2010 extended edition was never released in China - BOM's data is inaccurate. If you want to look at potential comparables, you should be looking at how the recent Hollywood re-releases have been performing in China: the first Harry Potter, as one example, made over $27m in its re-release. If we compare this to the success of the original release, t
  10. $7.5m or so to go, plus any extra change added to Endgame's gross since Disney last reported. In other words, yes, almost certainly. The more important question is whether it can keep the lead after Endgame's expected re-release in China. I think it can do both.
  11. Your figures are way too high. 30% for Mulan is ridiculous, and 50%, even for Marvel or Star Wars, is similarly insane.
  12. I don't know which I want more: for Avatar 2 to be the first $3b movie, or for Avatar to do it through a rerelease. I guess Avatar becoming the first $3b movie and then Avatar 2 becoming the first initial-run $3b movie would be nice. Either way, I think $3b will have to wait until an official global rerelease, assuming one happens before Avatar 2. Hard to tell how much this one is going to make, too many unknowns.
  13. A bold prediction. A 2019 ticket price, exchange rate and market expansion-adjusted Avatar would hover around the $3.5b mark. $4.5b would be Titanic tier. The effects of ticket price inflation and market expansion since 2009 now significantly outweigh the exchange rate differences between today and 10 years ago. Given this, Avatar 2, if Jim can pull it off, has a very decent chance of becoming the highest-grossing film of all time in unadjusted gross; even if it's 15-20% less successful than the first, it will still comfortably surpass Endgame/Avatar 1. Still, I'm nowhe
  14. BOM's estimates of tickets sold shouldn't really be taken at face value for recent blockbusters. The methodology that BOM uses (dividing gross by yearly average ticket price) means that the admissions for pretty much all big blockbuster films after and including Avatar are overestimated by a chunky margin. Rather than 108m, I'd guess that TFA sold somewhere in the region of 95-97m tickets, which would put the ticket price average at ~$9.66-$9.86; for comparison, BOM, with its yearly ticket price averages, uses an average ticket price of ~$8.66. If you make the argument
  15. They're very similar performance-wise - TFA certainly wasn't massively bigger than TPM. Accounting for the effects of ticket price inflation and market expansion from 1999 to 2015, I'd say that TFA was at most 15-20% bigger than TPM worldwide.
  16. Would agree with this. I'd expect a 48-49% final domestic share.
  17. After that interview where Cameron said "it's a certainty" Avatar will re-take the box office crown from Endgame after a planned re-release, there are some trash sites that are taking the quote out of context and claiming it's about Avatar 2 instead. "James Cameron says 'Avatar 2' overtaking 'Avengers: Endgame' at the box office is 'a certainty'"
  18. It's still very unlikely, but not impossible. And yes, that kind of reasoning was extremely shortsighted to say the least.
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