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hw64

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  1. hw64
    Is that based on a feeling or have you seen similar data for previous releases? Because we know Avatar 2 have been behaving in a very backloaded fashion in a lot of overseas markets, and it's not at all out of the realm of possibility that this is another sign of that kind of backloading.
  2. hw64
    The domestic prediction I agree with even if a lot of people here don't, but the overseas and China grosses are way too low. For me, it's a $650-$720m global opening if COVID hesistancy in China doesn't affect the opening weekend too much (big question mark at the moment).
  3. hw64
    Deadline are awful at predicting overseas openings. The $250m overseas outside of China is a big lowball as well.
  4. hw64
    https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/ From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).
  5. hw64
    As we've seen from some of the posts over the past hour or so, there are a lot of people absolutely waiting to pounce on any perceived sign of weakness from this movie to affirm their own deep-seated beliefs.
  6. hw64
    Cloud scalability is hardly a foreign concept nowadays -- RT seemingly just doesn't care.
  7. hw64
    Vultures coming in to feast prematurely as usual.
  8. hw64
    What happened to that endless well of confidence about Avatar 2 Jimbo? Chin up, now's not the time to falter!
  9. hw64
    I thought this might be the case. A brigaded early rating wouldn't surprise me.
  10. hw64
    It would be an objective financial success but yet still a disappointment, and that's not a contradiction. A financially successful movie can still be a disappointment if the movie underperforms reasonable expectations of what it could have achieved — people really need to reconcile that idea with themselves. Case in point: Batman v. Superman was financially successful, but nobody would ever call that movie's box office performance anything other than a big disappointment. $2 billion would be barely over half the relative success of the original Avatar, coming from the director who's made the two biggest movies of the past 40 years at least — one of which is arguably the biggest movie of all time — back to back. Of course it'd be disappointing — Avatar 2 can realistically achieve much, much more than just $2b.
  11. hw64
    For me, it tops Infinity War and falls between $650m and $720m or so.
  12. hw64
    Definitely not, in my opinion - it's quite a conservative prediction overseas depends on how things play out in China. IW easily in danger here.
  13. hw64
    This is an international prediction, so everywhere but domestic.
  14. hw64
    I don't think that Avatar 2 is getting close to a $200m opening weekend, but I don't agree at all that TG:M not having a bigger opening precludes Avatar 2 from having a very high IM — they're very different films. That's not it at all — far from being dampened by them, I just simply don't agree with some of the conclusions that are being thrown around. I'd only be dampened by them if I believed them to be unequivocally 100% correct, which I don't (and nobody should, in my opinion).
  15. hw64
    Which is all absolutely fine, but just let people make up their own minds on the data available to them, rather than suggesting that they mold their predictions to someone else's interpretation/extrapolation of the data. That's the only part I take issue with.
  16. hw64
    I've definitely been critical of some predictions, sure, perhaps even dismissively so on a couple of occasions over the past few days for which I'd apologise to those affected, but there's a big difference between being critical and essentially softly suggesting that everyone molds their predictions to a range that you've deemed to be appropriate. Some humility is needed here. The tracking thread is incredible, but the data is still largely limited to Thursday previews, and it tells us very little about how backloaded the movie is going to be over its opening weekend or how heavy the walk-ups will be. If any movie is likely to behave unusually and break precedent, it is Avatar 2, so it's simply unwise to rely on the idea that Avatar 2 will behave within established parameters in terms of backloading/walk-ups.
  17. hw64
    You also had the re-release at under $10m domestically prior to release, though. I don't think it's necessary, nor is it anyone's place really, to try and lord over people's predictions like this, especially for such a volatile release. There's still plenty of plausible opening weekend range outside of $140-$170m that could easily come to pass. I'm personally sticking at $175-$180m.
  18. hw64
    I think the backloading that everyone's expecting is backloading across the opening weekend itself (i.e. an incredible previews multiplier), not backloading in the pace of the presales (and Thursday night preview presales at that). The pace of the Thursday preview presales has very little to do with backloading across the opening weekend, and similarly little to do with walkups. And I'd also point out that the post I was referring to had a near-20% adjustment in opening weekend predictions based on a few days of presales data, which I think is absolutely insane generally.
  19. hw64
    That's a kneejerk if I ever saw one. A day or two of presales data from a few select markets, some of which I'm not sure is being interpreted correctly, isn't anywhere near sufficient to tell us where this is headed — rationally, you'd need at least a few more days of data before making any adjustments, and even then any adjustments would need to be well-measured. One or two days is not a trend. Now you're very likely to have to adjust back up again by the end of the week, when you could have instead stuck and made a potentially smaller correction if necessary over the next few days.
  20. hw64
    Really all depends on China. $750 should be enough, but even $700m domestic is potentially sufficient if China does very well (circa $700m). I would say $650, but such a relative domestic underperformance would make me question if there was something intrinsically about the film that'd make it play worse than expected everywhere, not just domestically.
  21. hw64
    Tuesday.
  22. hw64
    The Avatar re-release in China behaved very similarly, and there are 150,000 screenings of Avatar 2 on opening Friday. No other re-release in 2021 behaved similarly to the Avatar re-release, nor have I see any other movie behave similarly to how Avatar 2 is behaving recently. I don't think this has anything significantly to do with seating capacity at all, it's far more just Avatar's naturally backloaded nature showing up again.
  23. hw64
    Sure it's not likely, I was just answering your question on whether it'd even happened before, which it indeed has.
  24. hw64
    The Last Jedi: $450m opening (without China) to $1,290m final (without China), so 2.87x legs. And that's with a way smaller global opening than Avatar 2 will have. I'm playing devil's advocate a bit here, of course, as I'm on the $3b train and I think Avatar 2 will have around a 4x multiplier off of its global opening weekend, but it is theoretically possible to have an under 3x global multiplier at Christmas, yes.
  25. hw64
    I didn't say that, I said: I might have been slightly overzealous on this claim — with a relative domestic underperformance, 23/77 is possible, maybe 22/78 at a stretch, but I stand by what I said about 20/80. It's extremely unlikely even with a domestic underperformance, and if you're not looking at a domestic underperformance — if you're looking at $800m+ domestically — then anywhere close to 20/80 is effectively impossible.
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