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hw64

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Everything posted by hw64

  1. As someone who's hooked up to a feed of pretty much every Avatar-related tweet, I can tell you that there have been a lot of tweets over the past few hours from people who have now been sold on Avatar 2 after these reactions, which are near-universally being reported as raves or close to raves throughout the media.
  2. Totally agree with @NCsoft here — the repeated praise of the third act is an especially important takeaway from these reactions.
  3. I'm currently at around $2.6b, so very close to Avatar's overall performance.
  4. Yep — the exchange rates are that poor right now, such that they pretty much entirely cancel out ticketprice inflation and market expansion. $1.8b overseas-minus-China would be roughly an Avatar-level performance adjusted up for today's ticket prices, exchange rates and market sizes. Add that to an Avatar-equivalent (in ticket sales) $1.05b domestic, and you still don't get to $3b worldwide outside of China.
  5. Absolutely, but that's already priced in to my predictions. I'm on board with you for $3b+ worldwide definitely, maybe even without China if Avatar 2 totally maxes out (it's highly unlikely in my opinion as it would require a better-than-Avatar performance, but I can't rule it out entirely). But $4b+ worldwide? Jim can do miracles at the box office, but he can't bend reality, and the market conditions in China, plus the very likely chance of government interference if Avatar 2 gets anywhere close to Changjin, makes that effectively impossible. And if you're thinking of $4b worldwide with a sub-$800m gross in China, anything above $3.2b worldwide for Avatar 2 outside of China puts you very close to Titanic territory, which is very, very shaky ground to be on. That being said, don't let me stop you from dreaming — this is just my rationalist viewpoint.
  6. I knew you'd say that haha, but the China bit is your real problem here Jimbo, irrespective of how you think it's going to perform elsewhere. As I say, not only the market conditions which already make it near-impossible to make $800m+, but also the idea of the government allowing Avatar 2 to surpass Changjin.
  7. It's impossible. Not only would it need a significantly-bigger-than-Avatar performance globally (and that's after adjustment for market expansion etc.), but it would also need a gross in China above Changjin, which is not only pretty much impossible under the current market conditions but the government simply wouldn't allow it even if the market conditions were there.
  8. For those unaware, Jim revealed in a talk with Empire yesterday that the marketing is deliberately misleading and/or revealing very little about the plot. Something to the effect of "You shouldn't expect the movie to go the way the marketing has suggested".
  9. Can't really glean much from any of those. Cast - obviously it's their literal job and livelihood to promote the movie. Del Toro - close personal friend of Jim. Talk show hosts - again, it's their job to promote the movie and Cameron was quite literally in the room with them, so they were always going to say positive things. Even the reactions from the premiere tonight are going to be biased, although much less so than the above.
  10. I am, but even so, relative to some of your other maximums like $1.05b domestically which would be pretty much equivalent to the original's ticket sales or slightly lower depending on where you put the average ticket price (and that's in one of Avatar's weakest markets, whereas Europe in general is one of its strongest regions), I still personally think it's low. Compared to the near-100% of Avatar's ticket sales domestically that $1.05b would represent, $850m in EMEA would be around 85% of Avatar's ticket sales at reasonable ATPs for Avatar 2, maybe slightly less with more bullish ATPs and obviously slightly more with more conservative ATPs.
  11. Good effort. Your overall OS-C theoretrical maximum gross of $1.73b is definitely too low, though, in my opinion. I've been conservative on ATPs and my EMEA maximum would be well above $900m. What level of ticket sales relative to Avatar is this maximum based on? Is this whole analysis based more on feeling and intuition, or on a per-market analysis of exchange rates, ticket price inflation, market expansion etc.? (I assume definitely not)
  12. Thank fuck it's not Swift - can't stand her or her rabid fanbase. Also she's always struck me as a bit of a local act, a much bigger deal in the US than she is anywhere else, much like Beyonce.
  13. There are press screenings which are going on right now. The world premiere is on Tueday 6th next week, which is when the social media embargo lifts. The actual review embargo lifts a week later, on the 13th. So while a lot of press will have already seen the movie a few hours from now, we're not getting any reactions until Tuesday, unless we get some leaks.
  14. I'm aware, but I don't think it's relevant to the question. I don't think anybody's trying to make an apples-to-apples comparison here — the question asked was whether Avatar 2 will open above Infinity War's global opening of $640m, and I think it's pretty likely.
  15. Yeah you're probably right here actually, but again, it's both. Leo had a lot of fans prior to Titanic, too, and I think you can attribute his post-Titanic rise to stardom just as much to his real-life attributes (young, attractive, charismatic) and simply being the co-lead in the biggest movie of all time as you can to the objective merits of Titanic as a movie like the writing behind Jack or the script, but they're both intertwined anyway so you can't really pick them apart. In any case, I don't think the rise to stardom of any particular actor or actress in a movie necessarily speaks to the objective merits of that movie; there have been plenty of shit movies that people have shot to stardom off of.
  16. To an extent it's a function of both, but primarily the content drought, in my opinion. There are characters in Avatar like Neytiri and Quaritch where there's definitely something there and who I'm sure would have exploded in popularity if they'd have been kept in the public consciousness and explored further, and the fact that they haven't is almost entirely a result of the lack of Avatar content. Jake isn't necessarily one of those (yet), but Avatar was an experiential movie that deliberately put less focus on the story and characters, so let's see what Cameron can do with him in the sequels. The actors' real-life fanbases are largely irrelevant — young Leonardo Dicaprio built his fanbase primarily off the back of his youth, attractiveness and charisma rather than off of the merits of any particular character he played, and Sam Worthington in 2009 was not young Leo by any stretch.
  17. Domestically, I'd say around 10%. Overseas, it'll vary significantly between markets.
  18. >"Who asked for this?" >tracking for a $150m+ opening weekend in one of the worst markets for the original Probably those tens of millions of people, I would imagine. Jesus christ. Remember when journalism used to mean something, rather than simply parroting bad internet arguments pushed by people with an agenda which were only able to be pushed due to the complete 13-year content vacuum between Avatar and Avatar 2 which meant that there (very naturally) wasn't any measurable interest in the series, and which people disingenously (and very wrongly) used to conclude that the interest didn't exist at all? The "nobody cares about Avatar"/"nobody asked for Avatar 2" thing was always a ridiculous claim that anyone with any sense could instantly see through, but to be making that claim now, at the precipice of Avatar 2's release and in the face of the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, is simply embarrassing and completely out of touch with reality. And again, on "cultural impact", Avatar's perceived lack of it (the long-lasting kind at least, it had a tremendous amount when it was first released) is largely a function of — firstly — the movie being a standalone product with a very neatly wrapped up story with no outstanding plot threads, sequel hooks, or other things to speculate about, and secondly the complete lack of further content for 13 years. Not only is Avatar's perceived lack of cultural impact near-completely irrelevant to the interest in, and success of, its sequel (as we're already seeing — it's simply undeniable), but a massive hole is about to be blown into the argument merely as a result of another movie in the series being released with new characters, new ideas and an ongoing story for people to get their teeth stuck into. It pretty much proves that the argument was completely vacuous in the first place and only the result of a set of very specific circumstances and not necessarily a result of the merits (or lack thereof) of the movie itself, which is the real reason the argument was pushed in the first place due to the critical and financial unassailability of the original movie.
  19. It's laughable how backloaded these presales are across the opening weekend.
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