hw64
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Everything posted by hw64
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It's not like movies were making 20x their opening weekend regularly in 1997, or 10x in 2009 — Titanic and Avatar both had objectively huge legs for really any time period in cinematic history, but moreover their legs were extreme outliers for the time periods in which they were released. I don't think anybody's expecting Avatar 2 to match Titanic or Avatar's legs — things have changed, as was the case between Titanic and Avatar — but there's certainly still plenty of room for big outlier performances in terms of legs as Maverick showed earlier this year. It's rare, but not impossible.
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Also agree with the idea that a sub-50% drop isn't anywhere near as hard as some people are suggesting. Christmas Eve on Saturday drops the gross for that day by about half, and if we weight each day as contributing the same amount to the weekend, that's half of a third i.e. a 1/6 = 16.7% drop over what the weekend would otherwise have been. Saturday is actually the biggest day, so let's call that 20%. Putting aside calendar issues, then, if you expect that Avatar 2 would drop 35% in a normal second weekend and make 65% of its first weekend gross, as a result of the calendar configuration its actual second weekend would be 0.65 * 0.8 = 52% of its first weekend gross, i.e. a 48% drop. A natural 35% drop is far from unachievable, especially considering that the previews for Avatar 2 will make up probably around 1/8th or so (12.5%) of the opening weekend gross, which is far less than most blockbusters that we're comparing it to — especially Rogue One, whose $29m previews make up nearly 1/5th of its $155m opening weekend gross. Maverick managed a 28.9% drop off of a slightly lower weekend, and that was coming off of a boosted holiday first weekend and its previews of $19.3m made up 15% of its opening weekend, which is probably higher than the same for Avatar 2.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
hw64 replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
This happened with the re-release of Avatar in China last year and it happened quite a bit with the global re-release a few months ago, too. There's definitely significant backloading — Saturday and Sunday are going to be very strong for this movie relative to Friday and especially Thursday. -
This month's Empire Magazine where a bunch of Hollywood A-listers pose questions to Cameron.
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More. Could go up to mid-$700s, likely to be the second biggest global opening ever.
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I don't want to disrespect the local experts but at current ticket prices, that would only be around 30% more tickets sold than the original Avatar, and less than the likes of The Fate of the Furious and Captain America: Civil War (I know superhero movies are especially popular in Mexico, but come on — Avatar was a top 4 all-time ticket seller in Mexico at the time of its release, and the highest-grossing LC film of all time). I have it significantly higher — my starting point is 1.3b LC, and I think even that's probably a bit conservative.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
hw64 replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Yes, but rapidly increasing now. -
If you look on reddit you'll find people still debating whether or not it's going to make $1 billion.
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
hw64 replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
Gotta say, the real-time data always makes it very interesting to follow a run in China, and after months and months of speculation about "will it or won't it" and the current state of the market, there's nothing much to lose here now that we've got a confirmed date, so this going to be a very fun one to follow. -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
hw64 replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
That is rough, man. My high-end estimate for the loss in the Europe big 5 is about $260m based on 80% of Avatar's ticket sales in the UK and Germany, 85% in France, and 75% in Italy and Spain, and my low-end is only around a $160-$170m loss. I've even gone pretty damn conservative on the ATPs - in LC, 10 in the UK, 12 in Germany, 9.5 in France, 8 in Italy and 7 in Spain. I guess we disagree quite a bit on what level of ticket sales we're expecting from Avatar 2. To compare: I'm not sure what territories EMEA covers exactly, but in Europe generally outside of the big 5 above, my low-end performance/high-end loss is about $70m. My high-end Japan-Australia loss is around $115-$125m, so I'm a bit higher than you there, at least on the low end of performance. The major LATAM countries I've modelled I'm seeing a $20m increase on the low-end. And APAC I think I'm generally in agreement with you, again on the low end of my performance estimates. That's about $1.5b adding up all my low-ends including India at 500 Cr, so if India is doing around 600 Cr or so, I'd expect $1.6b+. I've been pretty conservative on all my ATPs and exchange rates, too. In fact, having had a look, my Europe estimates are based off of dollar-euro parity whereas it's now about 1.03 dollars in a euro, so those could stand to go up. Anyway, nice to compare workings. -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
hw64 replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
I'm also gunning for about 600 Cr - more would be great, though. Aren't your overseas predictions quite low, though? How can you be on board with Avatar 2 targetting 580 Cr in India and still have it only making $1.1-$1.4b OS-C-R? If it's making that much in India then I've personally got it at $1.6, $1.7b+. -
It's over avatarbros... again....
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It's unironically hilarious how desperate you are with your concern trolling that you'd even entertain the remote possibility of Avatar 2 opening to something as low as $70m. You're an absolute vulture desperate for something to cling onto, and you'll probably disappear as soon as you're unable to spin this narrative of failure, which isn't rooted in any sort of reality. You're going to have a rude awakening in 25 days, friend.
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BUCKLE IN
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Is it time to buckle in for the concern trolling about Avatar 2's relatively low presales, or will they be good enough to assuage the hand-wringing do we think?
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The budget costs are frontloaded. The vast majority of the R&D for the sequels have been done already; everything's mapped out in terms of story, the technology is there, etc. etc. And I think when Cameron is referring to a $2b break-even point, he's including the full cost of both Avatar 2 and 3 in that assessment. The latter sequels should be far less expensive on an individual level than Avatar 2, and certainly far less expensive than the combined cost of Avatars 2 and 3, so regardless of whether there are going to be diminishing returns (debatable), I don't think there's any reason at all to be concerned about budget issues.
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Yes, correct, but it makes it significantly easier. This is my point.
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I had to laugh at this response. What do you mean "that won't matter"? Avatar 2 will have around 40% higher ticket prices than Avatar domestically, and this is an extremely significant factor in detemining box office gross that the other sequels you cite simply did not have over their predecessors. If Avatar 2 sells around 70% of the tickets as Avatar, it will make around the same amount in dollar gross; if it sells the same amount of tickets, it will make 40% more. These are unavoidable facts. Your reply is essentially the intellectual equivalent of putting your fingers in your ears and saying 'lalalala I can't hear you!!!'
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How many of those sequels came 13 years after their predecessor and had a 40%+ higher average ticket price across their run?
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Relatively little of Top Gun: Maverick's success was due to the pure nostalgia element. That might have gotten it its initial success out of the gate, but it was the quality of the movie itself as an experience and the resultant word of mouth that carried it to the heights that it reached, not the nostalgia element. I don't think Avatar 2 will be much of a nostalgia hit in the traditional sense, and it doesn't need to be, either: it just needs to be a good movie which gives people a great cinematic experience, which is a near-certainty. The only "nostalgia" that will come into play is not going to be for characters or brand, but for the cinematic experience that Avatar offered audiences.
