hw64
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Everything posted by hw64
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It's over avatarbros, we got too cocky...
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Mexico's box office market was around double the size in yearly admissions when Black Panther came out in 2018 as compared to when Avatar released in 2009. Avatar was the 4th biggest ticket seller in Mexico at the time of its release, only behind Titanic, Ice Age 3 and (very narrowly) Shrek 2, whereas Black Panther was the 24th biggest ticket seller at the time of its release. Forget higher ticket prices giving Avatar the win, I don't expect it to be close in admissions, either.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
hw64 replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
With respect, this is extremely inaccurate — even Avatar with its very favorable 2009/10 exchange rates is not even anywhere close (nor will it get anywhere close) to suffering a $1b ER loss with current exchange rates, let alone a movie from 3 years ago. This is easily provable. The yuan hasn't depreciated against the dollar by any significant amount since mid-2019, so Avatar 2's gross in China with 2019 exchange rates will be roughly equivalent to its actual gross; this means that pretty much all of the exchange rate loss will have to come from outside of China. So putting China aside, how much would currencies need to depreciate against the dollar for a $1b exchange rate loss for Avatar 2 from 2019 rates? Well, if you were expecting Avatar 2 to make $2b overseas outside of China with 2019 exchange rates, then a $1b exchange rate loss would give you $1b with December 2022 exchange rates, a 50% loss in dollar value. For that to happen, every currency in the world would need to depreciate in value by 50% against the dollar from 2019 rates. The pound, trading at around $1.25 in mid-2019, would need to drop to $0.62 (currently $1.12); the euro, trading at around $1.12 in mid-2019, would need to drop to $0.56 (currently $0.98), and the same for every other currency in the world. Exchange rates are likely to get worse than they currently are in the next few months, but this is clearly absurd and impossible. And it gets even more extreme if you're predicting a lower OS-C gross for Avatar 2. If you were expecting a $1.5b overseas-minus-China gross for Avatar 2 with 2019 exchange rates, then a $1b ER loss would mean $500m OS-C with December 2022 exchange rates. That's a 66% loss, which again would mean that every currency in the world would need to depreciate by 66% against the dollar from 2019 values — the pound, trading at around $1.25 in mid-2019, would need to drop to $0.42; the euro, trading at around $1.12 in mid-2019, would need to drop to $0.37. Even more absurd than the above, and not an inch more possible. Haven't done any formal calculations on this, but the exchange rate loss from 3 years ago for Avatar 2 is likely to be a couple of hundred million dollars, probably up to $300m at the very most if — as is likely — exchange rates get quite a bit worse by December. A $1b ER loss from 2019 ERs isn't even remotely plausible unless Avatar 2 makes something like $4b OS-C this December. -
Avatar had an ATP in France of around €8.35; Avatar 2 will likely have an ATP in France of around €10 or more (the re-release on opening weekend had an ATP of around €13, for comparison). It doesn't make up all of the difference, but that ticket price inflation would add an extra $24.2m to Avatar's gross in France, offsetting the exchange rate loss by around half. It's a similar story in pretty much every other country, and indeed certain countries have seen far higher ticket price inflation — Avatar 2's ATP in places like India and Brazil will likely be double that of Avatar, and in extreme examples like Argentina which has seen massive inflation over the past decade or more, Avatar 2's ATP will likely be 30-35x that of Avatar. These kind of levels of ticket price inflation are why adjusting for exchange rates alone is an extremely inaccurate representation of how much Avatar's gross would suffer in today's market conditions. I've done the calculations myself for every relevant box office market, and Avatar gains hundreds of millions from ticket price inflation which partially, but certainly not fully, offsets the exchange rate differences. Add in market expansion, and Avatar 2 is in a better position than Avatar with regard to unadjusted dollar gross, i.e. Avatar 2 can be significantly less successful in real terms (market expansion-adjusted ticket sales) than Avatar and still make more in unadjusted dollar gross.
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A $90-$100m opening weekend for Avatar 2 would mean fewer tickets sold than Avatar's $77m opening weekend in 2009. It's honestly completely out of the realm of possibility for Avatar 2 to have a lower opening weekend than Avatar's ticket price inflation-adjusted opening; the awareness, hype and interest will unavoidably be far higher this time around.
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Avatar's ATP for the weekend estimated by EntTelligence at $15.51 — expectedly very high given the nature of the release.
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Would reiterate at this point that the focus on presales, and especially Friday presales, will mean that people are going to underpredict this rerelease. Domestically, presales are excellent on Saturday and Sunday and even through early next week; we saw similar with the rerelease in China last year where there was significant backloading over the first weekend and across a large part of the run. When you've got a movie like this with great presales throughout the weekend and the potential for significantly larger than usual walkups, Friday presales make up only a small part of the overall picture.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
hw64 replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
With just under 40k admissions in France on opening day, that's an ATP of around €13. I know it's opening day and I know this is a re-release which is focused on premium screens, but that's very, very high for France. Avatar's ATP in France was around €8.30 and I had Avatar 2's ATP in France at €9.50 which is around 5-10% higher than other recent blockbusters, but I might need to up that significantly. -
Yep, 2-week extension and very good performances in places like India, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico will be necessary for $3b, and even then it's an outside chance (although still entirely possible). Still, I think the movie is being underpredicted based on presales, domestically in particular. Not only are the presales for Friday nowhere near as mediocre as has been portrayed, but I'm also seeing signs of backloading in that presales for Saturday and Sunday are not too far off from those on Friday, which is in stark contrast to something like Don't Worry Darling. I'm thinking a $10m+ weekend at least, possibly approaching $15m, and I've also heard some very good signs about presales in certain overseas markets, so a bit of an overseas explosion wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Honestly think we might be about to learn the 'Avatar and walkups' lesson this weekend.
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Yes, exactly. That the domestic general public overwhelmingly (?) prefers 2D to 3D for other movies is largely irrelevant to what their preference for Avatar 2 will be.
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Have you considered that 2 decades of pop culture fandom may have left you out of touch with general moviegoing audiences? The last decade or more of the box office seems to have led certain people — especially those that are heavily into pop culture fandom themselves — to believe that fan-driven franchise movies are the only avenue to big box office success these days, but that has never been the case. Top Gun: Maverick has reaffirmed that fact this year, but it's hardly the only example: franchises like James Bond, Jurassic Park and Fast & Furious also prove that massive box office success is not predicated on a big pop culture fandom. But the most important thing to note by far is that Avatar itself did not find its huge success through fandom, which should tell you where the audience for Avatar 2 is going to come from and why a lack of pop culture fandom is a complete non-issue for Avatar 2. Avatar 2's success through non-fandom means isn't a point of wild speculation based off of the extreme outlier that Top Gun: Maverick has been, it's merely looking at the precedent that Avatar itself set. The idea that we "almost have to treat this like an original movie" because the people who will make up the audience for Avatar 2 aren't attending Comic-Con dressed up as Na'vi or screaming on Twitter about how excited they are — and therefore aren't easily visible or measurable — is similarly silly, because again it's predicated on the assumption that a lack of fandom interest for Avatar means that the audience for Avatar 2 doesn't currently exist. The audience does exist, it's just a silent audience, largely unrepresented on the internet and in fandom circles, to whom Avatar was just a great movie (as it should be) and not an obsession which defines a big part of their lives. So all this incessant hand-wringing over these fandom events like Comic-Con and D23 is extremely misguided, in my opinion. The fact that the footage has gotten such positive reactions from the types of people that attend D23 — who are not the intended main target audience for Avatar 2 — can only be a good sign.
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100% absolutely not happening. The whole 'glasses-free 3D' thing came from an off-the-cuff remark from Cameron many years ago (in 2016/17). There's been absolutely no movement on the issue — or even mention of it — since then, and cinemas aren't even remotely equipped to handle any sort of glasses-free 3D technology, nor is the technology even there in the first place. The source you've cited is a poor-quality source which is taking information from another poor-quality source which is engaging in pure speculation based off of Cameron's 2016 comments.
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$1.5b OS-C is perfectly feasible at current exchange rates. $1b domestic and $1b in China are not, in my opinion. The former would require ticket sales very near to or on par with the original Avatar domestically which, given Avatar's relative domestic weakness, seems unlikely (although not impossible). The latter requires navigating a myriad of highly volatile and questionable issues surrounding Avatar 2's potential in China, i.e.: Whether Avatar 2 will even see a release in China. There have been a lot of positive signs in this regard over the past few months, and I'm very optimistic about this, but we're still 4 months away from Avatar 2's global release date and there are a great number of things that could capsize Avatar 2's chances (e.g. worsening US-China relations over Taiwan), so a definite release date in China is still far from a given. As good as Jim's relations are with China, there are some things that are simply out of his hands. Whether, even if given an unburdened release in China, Avatar 2 would be able to hit $1b. Again, this is far from a given — Avatar 2 could be wildly successful in China and still fall far short of $1b. As massively successful as Avatar was in China in 2009, it's not at all guaranteed that it will translate to similar levels of success for the sequel 13 years later. Whether the CCP will allow Avatar 2, a foreign film, to become the highest-grossing film of all time in China, overtaking The Battle at Lake Changjin. This is perhaps the biggest hurdle. A foreign film hasn't held the title of the highest-grossing film of all time in China since Furious 7 in 2015, and it's extremely questionable whether the CCP would allow a foreign film to even challenge — let alone significantly overtake — the current record-holder, a patriotic war film that was directly commissioned by the Party for its 100th anniversary celebrations. It seems possible, if not likely, that if Avatar 2 starts to seem like a real threat to Changjin's ~$900m, that the CCP will kneecap it at around $7-$800m or so, before it even gets close to Changjin. In the worst case, the CCP could even take objection to Avatar 2 overtaking Chanjin's sequel, Water Gate Bridge, and becoming the highest-grossing film of 2022 in China, and they could decide to kneecap it before it hits Water Gate Bridge's $626m. Whether, even assuming Avatar 2 passes all of the huge hurdles above, the Chinese market will even be in a state to sustain a $1b movie in December. There are still huge questions regarding market recovery in China and the effects of the zero-COVID policy on the box office, and it's not necessarily immediately clear what state the market will be in come December. Even if Avatar 2 successfully navigates all of the above hurdles — which is a huge, huge ask as it is — the market simply may not be in a good enough state to create the kind of record-breaker that people are looking for. Chinese New Year is also relatively early in 2023 and starts on 22 January, so Avatar 2 will have a potentially very narrow window within which to release and make its money without having its run cut short. Given the above, even if I were 100% sure that Avatar 2 had the potential to make $1b in China, I wouldn't be able to rely on it for predictions — it's way too speculative, and there are far too many significant hurdles to navigate. I'm still pegging Avatar 2 in the $3-$3.5b range, but within that I'm expecting $1.4-$1.8b to come from OS-C, with around $700-$900m domestically and around $600-$800m from China.
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I'd wager it's a marketing gimmick to drive "don't miss out" demand. You don't remaster an entire movie and re-release it globally only to have it play for a mere two weeks — too much effort has been put into this re-release for it to be just dumped in a few hundred theaters with no marketing for a few days. A comparable would be the Toy Story 3D re-release in 2009, which also started out as a limited 2-week engagement but was extended to 4 weeks due to its success and ended up making over $30m domestically. There's absolutely no reason to limit the run to 2 weeks as there's pretty much nothing else on until Black Adam 4 weeks later, so it seems logical that the run — if it's successful — will be extended to 4 weeks as with Toy Story.
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Jesus, what's going on here then? I have it doing $25-$30m domestically at the very least, and I could easily see it going significantly higher. Even the special edition in 2010, released only a few months after Avatar sold 75m+ tickets domestically and with significantly lower ticket prices to boot, managed to clear $10m. I think this is a big underestimation. Too low. Should do great business in places like India, South Korea, Brazil — markets that have significantly expanded since 2009. Assuming that it gets a good amount of marketing and isn't just dumped, I'll go "bold" (at least relative to the general expectations that have been posted here) and say $30m+ domestic, $100m+ worldwide, $130m+ with a China release.
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marveldcfox has been concern trolling about Avatar 2 for years; he's just posting made-up wish fulfilment about Avatar 2 being a disaster. Hate to bring up someone's post history like this, but it speaks for itself:
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Also, I've been running some overseas numbers over the past few days and I'm still firmly on the 3 billies train. Will post findings when I get a chance.
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You're misinterpreting what he said (par for the course, I know). He understands perfectly well what made No Way Home a success, his point is that he's surprised at the level of its success relative to Endgame, the most anticipated movie perhaps of all time which needed a 20+ movie buildup to do the business that it did. And he's absolutely right to make that point and to question why it happened, because in a vacuum it doesn't make a whole lot of sense — No Way Home shouldn't have come as close to Endgame as it did. Part of the reason it did is because it was the first real big event blockbuster after the re-opening, part of the reason is because it had possibly the biggest competition vacuum in modern domestic history for the first two months of its run, and a big part of the reason is the massive ticket price inflation that's taken place domestically over the past few years. Equalize those factors between the two runs, and their grosses would be much further apart. Top Gun: Maverick is also benefitting from these same factors — although its competition has been far greater than No Way Home's, its ticket prices are equal or greater, and it's also massively benefitting from being the first post-pandemic movie to really cater to a large part of its audience base. It's a trite observation at this point, but it's no less true: TG:M was the movie to bring back older audiences to cinemas. So what could this mean for Avatar 2's success? Well, Avatar 2 will benefit from these inflated ticket prices just as much as, if not more than No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick, and I think there's also a good argument to be made that Avatar 2 will be the first post-pandemic movie to really cater to a significant portion of its audience base. As successful as superhero movies are, they don't even come close to capturing the interests of the entirety of the moviegoing population, and Avatar 2 could well be the Top Gun: Maverick for certain key demographics.
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195.7m views on YouTube, currently adding around 120k views per day.
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Not necessarily saying that anyone in this thread is guilty of this, but this is really a tale as old as time: American nerds and pop culture fanatics thinking they're the centre of the universe. "If the movie doesn't cater to me, then it doesn't have an audience." "If I don't like the movie, then nobody will."
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I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you're not serious, if only because the alternative is too absurd to contemplate.
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What's this about L&T's opening weekend outgrossing Ragnarok's inflation-adjusted OW? Ragnarok's ticket price inflation-adjusted opening weekend is clearly ahead of L&T's opening weekend; for it not to be, you'd need L&T's OW average ticket price to be less than 16.5% above Ragnarok's OW ATP, and ticket price inflation from 2019 alone exceeds that, let alone from 2017. So it's pretty evident that Ragnarok sold more tickets in its opening weekend than L&T. I hope people aren't putting stock into Box Office Mojo's inflation-adjustment calculations, which, as far as I'm aware, are still adjusting the grosses of old movies using a $9.15 average ticket price which is taken from 2019.
