TommyA10

IMO, under TLJ would be disappointing. 1 billion is bomb territory...

They had TLJ @ 85m past weekend, so huge grain of salt needed when deadline forecast is involved...

I know that, but some here are talking about 500-600m overseas which is absurd. TLJ will probably make more OS than domestic (probably 52-55%).

Overseas was much bigger than domestic today, so I’m not sure why you think TLJ will make more domestic (or 50/50 exactly). The weekend was decimated by CE/Christmas. Also, it still hasn’t opened in China (whatever it ends up making there).

So what, different countries react differently to various genres. Here in Croatia, the Avengers ended its run with 61k admissions. TFA has 245k. TLJ is at 96k as of this weekend. Is the Avengers number bad/embarrassing? You tell me...

If Episode IX follows the typical SW pattern (which TLJ seems to be doing more or less), it is bound to increase from TLJ out to 25% (or more). Now, if TLJ ends up dropping less than 30% from TFA (which I think it will); the increase for IX will probably end up being a bit smaller than Clones-Sith, but could still reach 20% or more, IMO.

Sure, but you gotta admit there’s quite a difference between a 150m and 220m opening...

How many of these movies opened to 220m though? Could it simply be that more demand was burned off in the OW, leading to worse legs overall (plus the fact TLJ ain't getting your "once in a lifetime moviegoer" to see it in theater)...

Multiplier isn't about WOM exclusively, though. CW had amazing WOM and had a pathetic multiplier, even for summer standards. TFA multiplier was more a product of its insane event status, than some amazing WOM, IMO. It got people who don't even go to the movies, to see it, which softened the drops and gave it amazing legs. I'm not arguing TFA WOM here. All I'm saying is, maybe it's unreasonable to expect 3.0x minimum multiplier for December releases just because it's december. Sort of like, it's no longer reasonable to expect soft openings in December, just because...

TLJ will have longer holidays through January (Winter break started later this year in case you forgot). Also, The Revenant was a relatively big hit, which actually dethroned TFA. Is there anything of that size on the horizon in January?

Everyone knows these aren't the most accurate estimates, as ticket prices for a movie can vary greafly from the yearly average (like TFA, which was significantly pricier than your average 2015 movie).

The average price for TFA, which was way higher than the average of 2015...

TPM probably adjusts to more than 750m. With TFA average ticket price, it would probably adjust to 850m+, so I don't think TFA beat it by much in pure tickets sold..

Maybe it’s just the fact that sequels to massive event movies like ANH/TPM/TFA are bound to drop significantly in total gross, regardless of the OW (or WOM). We might get a slightly lower opener like RO, with decent legs, or massive opener like TLJ with relatively poor legs.