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M37

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  1. Disney always plants their flag on the same weekends: 1st weekend of May - MCU Memorial Day Weekend - action/adventure Father's Day weekend - Pixar film Thanksgiving weekend - animated movie They've now added a Live Action film in the Spring, and sometimes an early November release, but those four have been consistent for the past few years.
  2. I'll put it this way: is the advertising for Mummy demonstrably worse than TMNT2 or the ID4 sequel no one asked for, which were similarly panned by critics and opened to $35M and $41M respectively last June? There is enough of built in audience for Cruise/Mummy/"popcorn action" that $30 million is almost assured. It can get to $40+, and I believe the chances of that happening will improve when the preview gross is reported over $3 million in the morning.
  3. Let showings per theater, but a negligible difference in the number of theaters. Happens in the Summer when there is more product out for the same number of screens. First week of May films can have their run of the place given the weakness in the weeks before and immediately after.
  4. My $103.7 looking mighty good! Still say $50+ next weekend, over $300 mil total. (PS - Is Gitesh trolling this thread?)
  5. #WonderWoman flexed more muscle than WB expected SUN dipping only 16% from SAT vs 28% estimate. $103M+ opening wknd, bright road ahead. https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/871712677885816832
  6. Certainly going to be dancing around that mark. Needs probably $34 mil+ for Saturday, a 22% increase from the true Friday total. For reference, GOTG had a +16% jump on Sat the first week of August when more schools were out of session. I think it gets there: $101.3
  7. I think the general takeaway - no matter matter how you calculate sexual preference into the equation - is that WW will be a somewhat different audience demographically than your typical comic book film. That will, in turn, affect its pattern and multipliers going forward.
  8. I was referring to the Thursday multiplier, but even for overall I'm expecting at least a 3.0x, if not creeping up towards the 3.5x that GOTG posted. Call it the Bad Moms effect
  9. It will. Going to leg out more like GOTG. $100 million+ OW possible, but could be close.
  10. Fair enough on the % there - but digging a bit deeper. SS also had a decently high minority audience: "With Suicide Squad, 39% of its ticket buyers were comprised of African American and Hispanic audiences." ...which usually portends a steeper second weekend drop. Not expecting that same demographic makeup here. In addition, SS didn't resonate with the middle age audience: "But Suicide Squad‘s weaker grades were with the middle-age folks with 25-34 year olds (22%) and 35-49 year olds (17%) giving it a B" Whereas WOM on WW appears to soaring among that same age group. My point overall though, is don't try to pigeonhole WW into the same trends as prior DCEU or even MCU films - it will be an outlier due to female empowerment push, and the larger than normal share of female ticket buyers. Expecting an OW to total gross multiplier of at least 3.0, and probably closer to GOTG 3.5x, despite the stronger competition in the ensuing weeks. But also, a softer opening weekend, maybe over $100 mil but not too much more than that. Already looking forward to all of the reporting about the "surprising" second weekend hold, when it breaks the mold and drops less than 50% in week 2...
  11. One factor that needs to be considered is that Wonder Woman should bring in a significantly larger female audience than most comic books films. I mention that because it changes some of the dynamics or "rules" that many in this thread are trying to apply from prior films. For example: 1) Women in general buy advance tickets at a greater rate than men. So pre-sales and "hype" for the film likely overstates the actual OW potential. 2) Female movie goers are also more patient in their movie going habits. Expect Wonder Woman to have "great legs" - both in terms of the Thursday to OW multiplier, and - especially given then reviews/WOM - from the OW to the overall gross. In other words, don't fret if the Thursday number or even the OW appears to come in soft; its more likely a sign of a different audience demographic than of the film itself falling short.
  12. Not really... it should have been fairly obvious based on the pattern for the first weekend - hell, even just Thursday to Friday - that this film was playing much more to families than the fanboy heavy Civil Way, AOU or even IM3. I'm a bit surprised it *only* ended up at $65 million for the second weekend.
  13. It's 900+ screens, around 500 theaters. Stil, don't be shocked when Baahubali 2 finishes third (or even second) for the weekend at over $10 million
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