M37

Why none of the MTCs have yet to roll out a Family Rewards/Discount program in some form is beyond me. Just seems like a total missed opportunity to create future frequent moviegoers

But it’s the only real family movie, so will be held mostly by default. Migration was still in 2400 locations in week 11, before KDP4 came out. The overall release schedule will be stronger (Migration was still top 6 that week!), so wouldn’t bank on that number, but should have no problem keeping 2000+ through April, maybe ~1500 until late May

A $13M+ Sat for GxK would be a $30M+ second weekend, drop over 60% yes off a holiday but also while retaining PLFs. Can be more certain in another week or two, but looking to end up very close to $200M total, may not get all the way there. Also don’t think KFP4 gets to $200M. Needs another $42M, off a $16.7M last week (3.5x), which would require stringing together sub-30% holds, when there hasn’t been a single one Final Estimates (+/-5%) GxK = $203M KFP4 = $193M

Yes, Easter weekend pulls a good number of families away for other activities, so those Sat & Sun holds should be solid, but not crazy low

Last week was a holiday, this is back to a more normal Friday (though I do think numbers can go up, but Deadline reporting roughly the same a few hours later)

If that value holds (and fwiw I'd prob take the over), and the FSS plays out like Kong Skull Island on this same (Final Four) weekend, looking at only ~$28-$29M second frame. That would put a $200M+ domestic finish in serious jeopardy Again presuming these early numbers don't shift, probably sub-$12M and sub-$10M respectively

$600K/$1.4M = 42% (pending actuals) Also a PSM of just $39.6/tix, waaaaay below anything I have grabbed numbers for, except Color Purple Curiously, the pace in the final week looks like a GA friendly film, but seems the awareness of and/or interest in the film didn't go very deep into smaller markets. Typically pace and market breadth are correlated (where metro-centric films are usually more presale heavy). (Does make we wonder if there's a chance for good legs if WOM is able to expand the audience pool)

Barbie, Mario, Oppy, Gentleminions, whatever Movies are a social event, so if something doesn’t have the franchise cache of a CMB or Avatar, it can still pull in a bigger audience by becoming a “thing”, activating that FOMO switch where “everyone” wants to go

They don’t have it, because they’re too close to the kind of content people can watch on the streaming services they already pay for Movies that have something extra - big action/PLF, WOM, whatever - or become a cultural hit before release, are the only ones being successful

January had Mean Girls (Civil War), Beekeeper (Monkey Man) and Night Swim (Omen/Abigail). Challengers is the only one that doesn’t have a direct analog, but not expected to do all that much either, and January was absolutely considered barren, coasting off previous month leftovers

I think the NCAA tournament games are messing with normal sales patterns, weakening the FSS sales, then catching up a bit Monday, so what looks like a drop for Tue - as GxK had last week as well - is really just returning to baseline, plus Easter this weekend as well Growth from T-5 (didn't see a T-7) to T-2 is +58%, just a smidge below GxK, on the upper end of pace, and while I don't believe it will be nearly that walk-up friendly, sales doubling from here would be closer to $2M than the $1.5M that seems to be the approximate consensus. Most films in this growth range add at least another 75% (32.5K final), but also decent chance MTC1 over-indexes here I think some were hoping for a Cocaine Bear type of online/viral push, but to me seems more like Creator, less GA friendly

Kudos on the sarcasm, but missing the point entirely. Popcorn action is by definition a little mindless I’ll just put it this way: seriously doubt Fall Guy skews 62% male and 35% Hispanic

Different kind of GA I think there, more comedy (and female) leaning than the popcorn action of GxK

::looks back over last 10-20 pages::

Yeah, I don't think $200M+ domestic is a given off an ~$80M OW, probably take the under slightly for now, though weak April calendar plus good WOM (for genre) could very well push it over. Something like ~1.9x the OWeek (baseline is around 2.0x, and first week is inflated) is my expectation, though Kong Skull Island managed 2.06x despite facing a stacked release slate, starting with Beauty & Beast and Power Rangers in its 2nd and 3rd weekend respectively