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M37

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Everything posted by M37

  1. Seems like they were worried about Meg 2 type of reception, and/or still feeling burned by "greatest superhero movie of all time" in Flash When WB believes they have a hit (Dune II, Wonka, Barbie, etc), they'll get reviews out early, but if its iffy, will hold as long as possible
  2. EXCLUSIVE: “We may have a big hit on our hands,” beamed one person close to the production of Warner/Legendary Picture's Godzilla X Kong today. And while the movie, which hits screens at 3PM today, is projected to do around $50M, there are some crazy projections out there between $55M to $90M. Everybody calm down ... Tonight, box office sources tell us that Thursday previews are racking up north of $7M This is a real Deadline early write-up [only edited to swap in GxK details] of a recent release - anyone know what it was?
  3. Fandango app just game me a notification about pre-ordering food with purchase (at select theaters) so it may have been an upgrade rather than traffic issue
  4. Right now, would probably take a slight under on $9M, mostly due to MTC1, which I can’t reasonably forecast over a 145K final, though probably underindexes here because of demos and Spring/Work break so like $8.9M +\- $0.5M, on the higher end of range, pending walk-ups today. Very curious in Miami in particular
  5. Keep mind, Tue/T-2 has become the norm for reviews to be released, and (as you know) I still believe that has the effect of increasing awareness of the opening and helping to drive sales, regardless of the quality of reviews. Paramount lifted the ROTB embargo early that T-2, morning, while GxK is still holding off I know I harp on growth rate, but films like this is where it really matters. To put some numbers to this, looking at Porthos's Sacto data, specifically what portion of tickets had already been sold by T-2 Most of the the films mentioned above had already pulled in ~60% (58-65%) of their final (T-0) total by T-2: Indy 5, Barbie, FNAF, Marvels, HB:BoSS Dune was actually just a hair under 70% The one exception (for this market) was Aquaman 2, which was only at 48%, likely helped by the holiday (and limited fan sales) Transformers ROTB was only 50% (including EA, the Thur only portion was even smaller) GVK should be in that same 45-50% range (if not lower?), which means sales are present are only like 3/4 of where we've become accustomed to seeing. So if current sales look like a $50M opening, its actually a sneaky $65M+ [before adjusting for demo/market skew, for which there likely will be one]
  6. Here’s the thing - you’re right! Sales now probably don’t look like a $70M opening? Hence the $50M WB/Deadline forecast. However, we also haven’t had this (potentially) walk-up friendly of a big name release since … probably Meg 2 last August (or even Equalizer 3), and Transformers ROTB before that. The string of major openings (excluding horror & family friendly ones that are always late breaking) have been (in reverse order): Dune II, Aquaman 2, HG:BoSS, FNAF, & ERAS - all with a much stronger fan base/early buy component. Compared to those titles, sales likely look relatively weaker, but it’s what I expect to happen - based on the growth over last 5 days - that sets GxK apart. Plus the holiday boost effect, and this being the first real casual popcorn action flick in a long time My only real hesitation is with the late reviews being bad and cutting off momentum, or I’d be more confident in the higher forecast
  7. Looked a bit more into data this morning, and I’m starting to think $7-$9M for GxK was a bit too cautious, even after the flattish Tue sales Going to bump that up a smidge to $7.5-$9.5M, making $70M right around the midpoint
  8. There was plenty of data in the tracking thread that heavily indicated a lower number; the “source” aka Charlie only confirmed after the fact And look, he and I don’t always agree, but he has given absolutely no reason to doubt his accuracy on reported figures in the entire time on these boards, so when he says a fudge happened, I believe it
  9. I know your Transformers track was a Q&D, but that comp includes the EA shows, correct?
  10. Famous last words and all, but nah, the moving days were over the weekend, and Monday’s updates only confirmed it wasn’t a fluke. Pace should be pretty well established until T-1 - the train has already left the station so to speak The only open question (to me at least) is really on final day walk-ups, in how the competing forces of late review drop, Fri holiday and potential MCBB audience overlap work to push the final number up or down
  11. Yeah it’s a holiday eve, but some of these comps are straight middle of summer, and people know it’s a holiday so that factor is somewhat already baked into current presale numbers (ie people who normally work Fri buying tickets for Thur). To me, It’s not a coincidence that growth rate values within genre are mostly consistent even across seasons, and so seeing that much of an gain just on the final day vs comps doesn’t seem realistic
  12. I do generally agree, and comps for ROTB are already at $8M, but coinciding with the NCAA tournament games and the demo skew likely being more weekend heavy, think there a limit to final day surge, putting $9M in play but not $10M The walk-up heaviest films like JWD et all max out at around +67% final day for MTC1, expecting similar here
  13. “Holidays increase box office” depends on circumstances. Like Christmas Day yes, Christmas Eve absolutely not, and ones like Thanksgiving and July 4 are more mixed bag From my experience, what happens for Easter weekend is that Good Friday absolutely sees a boost, but then family and/or religious activities pull away some potential audience (similar to the weekend before Halloween), while the time off can bring in some others. Overall, it’s a slight net negative to some films, slight boost to others, and I think GxK will fall more on the former side based on expected demo skews
  14. Based purely on numbers, that value is in play, and wouldn’t even rule out $80M, but do think Easter weekend family activities soften the OW (esp Sat & Sun) a bit, and probably would need good - or at least fan pleasing - reviews for that kind of push. But $70M+? Yeah, that’s a good high end target from here, something like $8.5/$24.5/$22/$15 = $72M
  15. ::Checks in on weekend sales updates for GxK:: Hey, um guys (& gals!)... All indications are for a very strong upward trajectory from here on out. Growth rates for both MTC1 and Sacto are tracing among the highest data points in their respective data sets, most notably and aptly Transformers ROTB. Keeping up that pace, as Keyser and Porthos both indicated, puts $8M in previews solidly in play, and wouldn't take too much more of push to flirt with $9M: The one catch is that late dropping - and potentially poor - reviews may derail momentum, plus whatever impact the NCAA Sweet 16 games have in keeping some of the male skewing demo home; those factors do soften the floor, giving a Thursday range of like $7-$9M Based solely on growth rates, would put final targets at approximately (as this is Q&D analysis) MTC1 = 150-160K Sacto = ~4500 See above for why those targets may not verify, but that's where currently trajectory predicts Florida = not enough data to estimate, but will be very interested in seeing the Miami walk-ups, given how this market/state perform on Jurassic films The weekend pattern and corresponding IM is tricky with the holiday, but currently Friday sales in MTC1 is 70% higher than Trans ROTB at T-3, which would comp to $28-$29M, and while I think the fan nature of Godzilla and holiday effect probably means that doesn't quite pan out, mid-$20M range seems like a good target, with a BPWF like 2x Thursday almost certainly the floor. Saturday likely drops from TFri (See F8ate of Furious), to something around ~2.5x Thur [See Trans ROTB, JWD, and Godzilla KOTM], and rolling it all up gives an approximate 8x+ IM, for a full weekend of expectation of $60-$75M, most likely in the Black Adam/Fast X range of high $60M
  16. Can't help but wonder if the backloaded NCAA schedule today - only 2 games before 530pm Eastern - is helping to boost matinee shows, but at the expense of the evening shows later. Shifting business earlier rather than those strong early numbers being indicative of a strong day overall
  17. The simple answer to your questions are that the Men's NCAA tournament started on Thursday, likely pulling away potential viewers and dropping numbers as compared to Wed and prev Thur But there is also Spring Break effect (more last week than this week) so weekdays should drop more than the upcoming weekend (esp Sat/Sun), plus competition from Ghostbusters, both direct (audience pull) as well as screen & show loss limiting potential March - more than any other month - is when daily/weekday numbers get a little fuzzy, because of these outside factors that are not consistent week/week or even year/year. Makes it more difficult to be precise in forecasts
  18. Had a better Tue in MTC1 than baseline, likely from T-Mobile deal, then meh reviews seems to zap that momentum over the final two days. Only +59% final day, slightly below the expected range. Skimming through the totality of tracking reports, would probably take the over on the $4.5M, but within in the +$0.3 range Friday sales vs Wonka suggest ~$11.5M (~$16M total OD), but lower (often much) against a few other comps (that I'm not overly fond of) but higher against pure family movies. Plus there are still Spring Breaks, but reviews may continue to drag down walk-up rate, so that's more of ballpark figure than a true projection. Might be just enough to squeak over $40M, roughly 8.5-9.0x IM range, keep the streak alive
  19. They very well may be, but wanted to set a baseline so that any bonus effect could be visible
  20. Expected MTC1 targets for GBFE T-3 = 36K (current) T-2 = ~41K (+5K) T-1 = ~49K (+8K) T-F = ~79K (+30K) That would be +120% growth through finish, on pace with the Wonka/Aqua2/JWD grouping it has been tracking very steadily (both GBFE and Wonka are exactly +39.9% from T-7 to T-3), and slightly below the Mermaid/ATSV/Fast X range (+135%). The final day (T-1 to T-F) should be under +70% growth, expected around +62% (or +67% if it follows the Mermaid grouping). Only true family films (like KFP4) and horror finish stronger than that for Thursday. Around 80K total tickets would suggest a $4.5M preview total Maybe a $5 T-Mobile burst - which should be evident if next two days are exceeding the targets above - coupled with a higher PSM (lower MTC1 index) can get all the way to $5M, but I'm fairly skeptical. From my vantage point, $4.5M +/- $0.3 seems to be the trajectory, though with a lower confidence level/higher uncertainty than usual
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