Lancelot Gold

lolwut? TLJ is going to breeze into the top 10 and has a good shot at 4th and 5th 8th

That's pretty damn close to my Excel spreadsheet giving 664m!!

I think that it's showing Saturday drop because R1 did since it was NYE. Also, forgot to add that it's currently predicting 664m for its final total. I like that prediction since it preserves the above 3.0x multiplier.

Playing around with Excel by comparing R1 to TLJ. These are the predictions that I'm getting. Wed 23.2m Thur 18.1m I don't trust these, but I'll include them. Fri 19.5m Sat 17.0m Sun 16.7m Mon 17.0m

I said it wasn't bad, just disappointing. Disappointing doesn't mean bad.

It's extremely rare for a December movie to have below a 3.0x multiple. 660 is what the worst case scenario should be. Less isn't horrible, just disappointing and a aberration.

I still don't 😝 3.2x or RIOT

Sony should cancel Venom. I just don't see it working without it being in the MCU like Spider-Man. I wouldn't be shocked if Into the Spider-verse made more than Venom. In fact, I'm expecting it.

I'm dead.

You're right, I had a friend watch Civil War without seeing previous Marvel movies, except the first Avengers. Hadn't even seen Winter Soldier. I slapped him after finding out, but he still really enjoyed it. It's just not something I'd recommend everyone or anyone do, haha. JW I can understand that they might not have seen the first ones, even though that just says they make bad life choices 😂😂. People that have never seen at least ep 4-6 and see TFA just baffle me to no end.

TFA and JW are both sequels that made more than previous films in the series that themselves made over 400m

I wasn't 100% awake yet. The article that linked to that one was posted an hour ago. Thought that one was too. My eyes didn't see the "24th"

Early showings are booking up faster around here. Out of 16 showings at one place, only the 3 latest showings do you have hope for more than one person, if you don't want the front row. I almost wonder why they even bother with that front row.

Other places are reporting 32m Monday, where is this 27m coming from? http://variety.com/2017/film/box-office/box-office-star-wars-last-jedi-jumanji-1202648552/

Above Avengers and below TFA 😂 But seriously, still too early to see its legs I think since December movies can have some crazy ones. Extremely rare for a December movie to fall below 3x, which should put if over Titanic.

Do you honestly think that TLJ would have still done worse than Avatar if this Christmas was on Friday? Question for other forum people. Surely this can have better legs to make up for the bad holiday placements, right? Even with drops like this, there's nothing stopping it from legging out to 4x. I don't think it will go that high, just using it as a example.

Just wait for the +30% Saturday! 😛 I am one with over avatar and over avatar is one with me. 😂

With the way it's been somewhat close to JW's ups and downs % wise, I'm thinking +30% for Saturday. Won't follow JW after Saturday unfortunately.

With my original +64% jump for Friday being "close", I'm bumping Saturday up above my original +35% to +38%. Thinking somewhere between 35% and 40%, so I'm splitting the difference. Basing my numbers off JW and TFA. Can't use those for Sunday though. That 110m 6-day estimate from Deadline really had me thinking pessimistically.

Opening weekend does not seem to greatly effect December movies multiplier though. Low, high, both way more often then not have over 3x Yeah, data on movies over 200m OW is limited, but that doesn't mean that we should ignore a obvious trend.

Now I'm pretty sure everyone would agree that TLJ is better than all those, correct? WOM, critics, exit polling, sane people 😂 Or do people really hate it that badly?

What big December movie has gone below 3.2x? I'm sure they exist, just haven't found it yet. I'll look more when I'm home on my desktop.

Look out DC! 😂 Looking past December movies, every year and especially 2006, it's seems impossible for this to have less than 3.2x or 700m. I'm leaning more towards 3.5x with 770m, but that's certainly not the floor like 700m is, so I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen.

I changed some of my numbers after some research. Being more pessimistic about Christmas Eve and slightly more with other days. Maybe too pessimistic? I'm still well over Deadline's 110m 6-day so I think I'm still being too optimistic. Maybe Friday should only be +40%? That still gives a 148.61m 6-day. Would be curious to see Deadline's daily number predictions. Thursday 18.10m [296.81] Friday 28.96m (+60%) [325.77] Saturday 37.65m (+30%) [363.42] Sunday 22.59m (-40%) [386.01] Monday 40.66m (+80%) [426.67] 3 Day 89.20 4 Day 129.86 5 Day 147.96 6 Day 164.85 Not sure about Tuesday yet. I need to research more. Difficult with the days being different.

Oops, my bad, mixed up my days. I think I was looking at either Tuesday's drop or the super early estimate for Thursday, for Wed's drop.