Jake Gittes

So if Frozen follows Tangled, $28.6m for the weekend. If CF follows DH1, it gets $27.3m. 57% and 63% drop, respectively.

Over 90% methinks.

So if CF follows GOF it'll do 29.6-30m for the weekend, and if it follows DH1 it'll do 28.4-29 If Frozen follows Tangled it'll do 28-29.4, which would be a slightly worse second weekend drop. 300m isn't happening, just like it wasn't at any point in the past week. 250 is the clear target, with a chance of 10-20 million on top of that.

As far as names go they'd probably never be able to beat Pussy Galore anyway.

One of the things that make the story in the original work is that the hero and the villain's demeanor and behavior are reversed: Oh Dae-su is half-crazy, desperate and clearly suffering from a psychological trauma, while his nemesis (forgot the name) is cool, calm and collected. It's believable that the latter would come up with and carefully execute a scheme like that (and be patient enough to do so), while the former would be driven and obsessed enough to get caught in his trap. In the remake, meanwhile, the characterizations are reversed back to be more conventional, which in turn makes very little sense. So now Brolin is a one-note, seemingly stable badass taking out anyone standing in his way, and Copley is a cartoonish over-the-top maniac who could never create and follow through on an incredibly complex, 15-years-lasting revenge plot in anything resembling the real world.

Agreed on the first four, but I'm thinking Spike Jonze might be the fifth nominee. Scorsese or DOR getting in wouldn't surprise me in the least, though.

I thought it could have been trimmed by 10-15 minutes - and should have lost the Inception music - but it still held my attention even in the more drawn-out moments. In essence this is Greengrass doing what he does best: an amazingly intense and harrowing dramatization of actual events, subtly raising difficult questions of why such events were allowed to happen and what could the consequences be. I wouldn't say it's quite as good as Bloody Sunday and United 93, but it's very close to their level, and a massive improvement over the lackluster Green Zone. Oh, and I don't even know if Hanks was ever better in anything than in the final 10 minutes of this movie. And the whole performance, wonderfully restrained and almost badass at times, is by far his best work in at least a decade.

I saw Clash in 2D and thought it was horrible.

This century it's only worked for No Country, The Hurt Locker and The Artist so far

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2s0-wbXC3pQ

This pleases me.

I'm not saying she wouldn't deserve it, obviously I don't yet have any opinion on that. It's just that it would be so far removed from any historical predecent. Unless I'm missing something, I don't think anyone except Meryl ever won two Oscars before the age of 35. Edit: Jodie Foster managed to win two before turning 30. Still, though.

Who cares what COTBP would have done in today's market. But in 2003, it was a hit as enormous as THG was in 2012.

In the past decade, NYFCC and the Academy agreed six times on Best Director. 4 times on Supp Actress, twice on Supp Actor and three times on Cinematography. (They have still to give the award to a 3D movie).

It'd be frankly ridiculous if she won again.

COTBP sold about as many tickets as the first THG, though. Transformers 1 isn't far behind, either.

Only saw Act of Killing and Stories We Tell out of that shortlist. Both great, I don't know how good the former's chances of actually winning are, but it deserves it 100%.

NYFCC Best Screenplay - American Hustle

Nominations should definitely be after January 10, because that's when HER and LONE SURVIVOR get their wide release in the US. So maybe within a week or two of that date. I don't think we should delay the nominations until February, though.

I appreciate the first Godfather more than I love it. On the other hand, Part II is one of my 10 favorite films of all time.

405-425 for CF and 255-275 for Frozen sounds pretty good for me right now. Both will need to hold better than most movies generally do next weekend (sub-60% for CF, sub-55% for Frozen) in order to do more than that, IMO. Still huge wins in both cases.

Toy Story 2, which for 14 years was the biggest Thanksgiving opener, and has to be one of the most beloved animated films of all time, "only" had a 4.29 multiplier from its 3-day and 3.05 from its 5-day. And that was in 1999. If Frozen follows it from a $67m 3-day and a $94m 5-day, it'll finish at $287m. I really can't see it doing that AND $13m more right now, not that it isn't a fantastic run in any case, because I never would've predicted more than $225m for it. And now it's gonna do 250.

I'm sure it'll do very well, but Tangled had fantastic WOM and legs as well, and it didn't have to deal with a Hobbit movie and a dozen of new Christmas releases. I'm not trying to spoil the party here, but if you are automatically assuming that Frozen is now gonna beat MU or even crack $300m, you might be setting yourself up for disappointment. Let it make $250m first.

Unless it won't. If Frozen follows Tangled it'll have a $67m 3-day and $275m total, and MU is sitting at $268m. Even with amazing WOM, Frozen is far from guaranteed to match that, with all the competition for screens coming up

For supporting actress, I'd say Hawkins, June Squibb, Ziyi Zhang (The Grandmaster), Mickey Sumner (Frances Ha) and... well, I'm gonna need to watch 12YAS for that. No intention of seeing The Butler, so no Oprah.