DH1 had a 2.36 multiplier. With a lower-than-expected OW and strong WOM (it's gotta be strong, right?), I think CF could match that. I'd be surprised if it did better than 2.4, though.
Personally I find it incredibly atmospheric. It fits the movie perfectly and works on its own, too. But I guess you either get absorbed into the mood or you don't.
A two-hour gaze into the abyss. For me the one scene that really knocked me out was the talk show scene - taken out of context, it can so easily be taken as a hilarious sequence from some satirical comedy that's out to mock mass murderers. Except there's nothing satirical about it, these are real, ordinary-looking people who actually mean what they say, and once you fully realize that (which is, frankly, not that easy), it's scarier than any horror film.
Finally saw The Act of Killing earlier today. Not only the best, but also the most important and powerful film of the year, if not the past few years. Nope, not overselling it.
Redford I could see, Dern almost certainly not. Also, this may just be heat of the moment, but I think Phoenix could be something of a threat if the Academy gets really taken with HER and his performance in it is truly on the level of his best work. In general the combination of late release and huge early acclaim does give the movie that air of an underdog that enters the race late but ultimately shakes things up.
Ejiofor is 36 now... plenty of actors won in this category when they were in their late 30s or younger. Brody, Crowe, Cage, Hanks, DDL (when he won his first), William Hurt, De Niro, Nicholson (for Cuckoo's Nest), Richard Dreyfuss were all aged 29-39 at the time of winning. Age is not an obstacle.
You know that major Oscar nominees get theater expansions post-nominations all the time, right? 12YAS is going to be steadily earning money up until early March. I don't see any way for it to miss $50m, and over $60m is a real possibility.
I don't see how 12YAS is a letdown in any way. It's at $25m after a month in theaters and will be close to, if not over $40m by the time the Oscar noms are announced. Likely another $15m after that, perhaps more than $25m if it wins BP. That'd be outstanding for a brutal, harrowing drama about slavery. I mean, this isn't exactly Slumdog Millionaire.
Exhibitor Relations @ERCboxoffice1m
In its 3rd wknd of ltd release, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB earned $1.7M at 184 venues--$9,701 per--$3M total.
Focus should probably give it a wide expansion next weekend. Doing very well so far.