Jake Gittes

Based on actual reactions, Cuaron and the Coens seem like the strongest shots at the moment. I doubt either of them win, but right now I feel most comfortable giving them two of the spots. Oh, and how about a Benh Zeitlin-like out-of-nowhere nominee at the expense of a thought-to-be-easy contender like Affleck or Bigelow? Come on, Academy, forget DOR and Scorsese, go for Richard Linklater!

Cedar has 11/15 right, the other four have 10/15. I've only got 9/15 (fuck you very much, WTM) which doesn't bode well for me.

If The Butler follows The Help, it's gonna make over $14m for the 3-day weekend If WTM follows Tropic Thunder, it'll make around $12m (a sub-10% drop!) for the 3-day.

All hopes now on the upcoming original projects by Pete Docter and Lee Unkrich... if those guys can't get Pixar out of this swamp it's gotten itself into and back to its former glory, then who the hell can?

1) Will One Direction open to more than 19.5 mill? Yes 2) Will any film increase more than 12.5% on Sunday? Yes 3) Will Paranoia fall less than 35%? No fucking way in hell 4) Will Getaway open to more than Hardball did? No 5) Will Closed Circuit open to more than 16.775 mill for the 6 day? No 6) Will Mortal Instruments fall less than 32.5%? No 7) Will You're Next increase more than 5% on Sunday? No 8) Will MI have a Monday drop of less than 15% No 9) Will The Butler finish in the top 2 on Monday? Yes 10) Will Millers finish in the top 3? Yes 11) Will any animated film in the top 50 drop less than 12.25%? Yes 12) Will Man of Steel fall less than 15% for the 4 day? Yes 13) Will WHD fall more than 15% for the 4 day? No 14) Will Will any film in the top 20 increase more than 200%? Yes 15) Will any film in the top 10 have an increase of more than 17.5% for the 4 day? Yes What finishes in spots: 5 Getaway 6 Mortal Instruments 10 You're Next 11 Blue Jasmine 13 Monsters University Bonus 1: What will the top three films add up to on Thursday? $3.791m Bonus 2: What will the top 5 films add up to on Friday? $17.386m Bonus 3: What will the top 3 films add up to on Sunday? $15.570m Bonus 4: What will the combined grosses of DM2, Smurfs 2 and Butler add up to for the 3 day? $16.569m Bonus 5: What will the combined % drop be for Millers, Kick Ass 2 and World's End for the three day? 118.688%

Were they? http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=toystory3d.htm

That one has its own page on BOM. Right now STID and WWZ are being kept separately in the theater counts chart (and the latter has 300 more theaters), which makes me assume they'll be counted separately in the weekend numbers chart, too. It could change, though, or I could be assuming wrong already.

Life of Pi I guess

Why, go higher... make it over IM3

Three things working against that (not counting other actresses' work) 1) It's sci-fi, so she should be happy just to receive a nom (see Weaver for Aliens) 2) Redford is potentially a top contender for Best Actor, and they wouldn't want to reward a one-man show and a one-woman show in one year 3) Her first Oscar win happened just four years ago, which might not be an argument in itself (Waltz comfortably won twice within three years) but in this case, building on #1 and #2 it's gotta be taken into account

No.

Well, I was talking about quality not BO. Can't really see this flopping, though - even with a softer start it will probably have strong enough legs, and then OS will help it to turn a profit.

About blockbusters.

Shadows (1959)

It's going to be amusing if after a whole summer of mediocrity and disappointment (well, that's what it felt like to me) we'll get a truly great 3D sci-fi blockbuster released in... October, of all months.

18k for me.

Correct answers: 1) What film finishes number one? The Butler 2) Will any film finish with more than 25 mill? No 3) Will The World's End finish with more than 8.75 mill? Yes 4) Will You're Next have an opening day of more than 9 mill? No 5) Will The Butler fall less than 26%? No 6) Will KA2 fall less than 52.5%? No 7) Will Jobs have a Friday increase of more than 66.7%? Yes 8) Will Paranoia...never mind, who cares. Any answer will do. An answer 9) Will Miller's finish in the top 5? Yes 10) Will The Butler finish higher than any of the openers? Yes 11) Will Wolverine have a Saturday increase of more than 34%? Yes 12) Will Despicable Me fall more than 33%? Yes (this, like #3, was extremely close - it dropped 33.5%) 13) Will 2 Guns fall more than 45%? No 14) Which film of these 4 has the best drop? Smurfs, DM2, Planes, Turbo 15) Will Mortal Instruments have a Thursday drop of more than 22.5%? Yes 12/15 4000 13/15 6000 14/15 8000 15/15 10,000 What finishes in spots: 3 The Mortal Instruments 5 Planes 7 Elysium 9 Kick-Ass 2 11 2 Guns 2000 each 7000 for all 5 spots Bonus 1: What is Mortal Instruments 5 day gross? 4000 $14.088m kitik Bonus 2: What do the three openers add up to for the 3 day? 4000 $25.147m filmovie

http://www.vulture.com/2013/08/dicaprio-scorsese-wolf-of-wall-street.html

So at the same time when The Wolverine is the lowest-grossing X-Men movie in the US it's the highest grossing overseas.

Kiss Me Deadly (1955) Lola Montès (1955) The Killing (1956)

Yeah I'm thinking 9.5 on OW and 35-ish total.

Care to elaborate why Megamind and KFP2, of all movies, should be kept?

I dunno why it wouldn't reach a 3.5 multi. WOM should be there plus it should have a very nice hold next weekend. I think $35m is doable.

So, The World's End over Scott Pilgrim? I mean total ($31.5m), not OW.

Still not gonna make $1.6 million, unless they decide to put it back into 1000+ theaters next weekend