Jake Gittes

Don't judge its award chances by your opinion.

Thinks are looking fairly bright for DU right now, but I wouldn't be shocked if it got snubbed. I think it's only in a slightly better position than Dragon Tattoo was, which, I guess, got held back by being a remake released so soon after the original, not becoming a BO sensation and immediately following the high that everyone had after TSN. Django doesn't have those setbacks, but it's more controversial and this is a stronger year.What I really don't know right now is whether it's getting a Director nom. Tarantino is a DGA member now apparently, and he got a standing ovation after the DGA screening of DU. He could really put up a fight with Hooper for that 5th slot (I think Spielberg, Bigelow, Affleck and Lee are pretty much locked). Unless PTA pulls a Malick over not one, but both of them.

It'll be Django, ZDT, Moonrise, The Master and Amour, with Looper as a possible surprise. Promised Land is out.

150 is still likely for Les Mis (it'll be in high 60s by the end of the weekend, and will have easily passed $100m by next Sunday), but getting to Chicago numbers definitely seems a stretch now.The goal for Django, I think, should be TKS' $138.8m which is the biggest total for a Weinstein movie. $150m might be in play if it's nominated for BP. It should pass Basterds pretty easily, although likely not worldwide. I'd be happy with $100m OS here, anything more would be an icing on the cake.

Neither is Drive. Apparently the Top 250 isn't a place for great "cool" films anymore, it's movies like TKS and Intouchables that are much more comfortable in there now.

You seen 21 Jump Street yet?

Hey, I hope this Leonardo Di Caprio guy happens. I hear he's pretty good.

Frankly, the way it looks to me, at this point people like Thurman, Madsen, Daryl Hannah, Pam Grier ought to be apologizing to Tarantino for flushing their careers down the toilet right after he gave them a great part in one of his films. I mean, come on... you just did Kill Bill/Jackie Brown, it was your best performance in god knows how much time, the movie was a hit, critically acclaimed, hell, you might have even received some award attention for your work. What do you do, use that chance, get even slightly more selective with your roles, seek an opportunity to work with other talented and acclaimed directors? Fuck no, you sink right back to doing movies with a near-DTV level of quality who almost nobody gets to see anyway. If David Carradine had still been alive, I'd have been tempted to include him in that group as well. And Robert Forster, who at least made Mulholland Dr., Lucky Number Slevin and The Descendants in the past 15 years. I understand you have to pay the bills, but I have a much harder time understanding it when you seemingly couldn't give even a single fuck about your reputation.

Cuckoo's Nest, Barry Lyndon, Amarcord and The Passenger (aka Professione: reporter). Still need to see Dog Day Afternoon, The Rocky Horror Picture Show and Nashville, at least, but '75 is already a great year even if you don't count those.

Well, very recently, 2007, 2009 and 2010 were all substantially more rewarding to me than the years surrounding them. Gotta say that while I had very high expectations for 2012, it hasn't really lived up to them - every blockbuster except TA and Skyfall was disappointing to some extent and I haven't seen a single movie I could call a masterpiece this year. But since I have yet to see The Master, Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty, things can definitely still be turned around.If we are going further back in time, 1974, 1975, 1980, 1986, 1994, 1999 were pretty incredible years for movies - can't speak for earlier years/decades since they are still mostly an uncharted territory for me. I saw masterpieces made in that time, but not yet 2 or 3 from a single year. 1950 probably comes closest with a masterpiece in Rashomon and two other all-time classics in All About Eve and Sunset Boulevard.

Mostly great numbers, especially compared to 2007. I didn't have much hope for TH to be over 185 by now, but at this point if it manages $35m this weekend and $20m next weekend, its $300m chances will be close to 100%. All it needs right now is a $12-13m Friday - looking at the same Friday in 2007, NT2 increased 16% from Thursday, Alvin 8% (and that was the lowest increase in Top 15) and IAL 25%, so going by those increases, TH should be good for $11.5m Friday and $33m weekend at the very least. That is unless things have changed and movies in 2012 are going to behave differently (and worse) than movies on the same days in 2007.Django held quite well especially compared to Les Mis.

Which is especially comforting after the failure of Grindhouse. Between that, the very mixed early reactions to IB from Cannes and the latter film being very different from what was advertised, there was a period of time when I thought he was on a verge of completely losing his connection with mainstream audiences. That all changed when the Friday number for IB came out... and now that connection is stronger than ever, as his earlier films also continue to age well.

I haven't seen Django, but SLJ deserved more award attention for that short clip released of the scene with him and Kerry Washington ("Why is you lying to me?") than Arkin and, I'd argue, Bardem deserved for their entire performances. He looks squarely back in his Ordell Robbie territory (a character he got also snubbed for), except now it appears to be 100% menace and zero percent likability.

I think Argo just wasn't a personal and sharp enough piece of filmmaking for me to truly fall in love with it. The period detail is immaculate, the tension in the final act is spectacular, the actors, especially those playing the diplomats, all hit the mark (although I can't stand the blow-job Arkin is getting from the critics and the industry for more or less playing himself again). But it felt more like a history lesson than a movie at times - very pedantic and encyclopedic - and didn't really take any storytelling or dramatic risks, aside from focusing on people who weren't held in the embassy, but were hiding in the ambassador's house and forced to behave like guests (yet it was something the movie almost never cared to explore). So yeah, it was very well done, but seemed more professional and calculated rather than personal. I want to hear the creator's voice when I see a movie (especially such a high-profile one), not just have him do his job professionally and then leave having hardly said a word. Which is kinda what Affleck did.

Argo has definitely been overshadowed by all the heavy hitters released in Nov-Dec, I'm sure nobody has exactly forgotten about it but its peak has come and gone. Lincoln is a powerhouse no matter from which side you look, Les Mis is right in the center of attention, and ZDT, not Argo, turned out to be the Middle East-set, based-on-a-true-story thriller of the year to collect the majority of critics' awards. Argo is locked for nominations, but as far as wins go, it's more of a dark horse now than a frontrunner or even a runner-up.I also agree that Argo doesn't deserve to win anything. It was a perfectly fine film, but other than the final act, nothing truly stood out for me. Affleck's best film is still Gone Baby Gone.

I feel sorry for people who consider Bad Taste "awful". It's not quite Braindead, but it has its ridiculously awesome moments. As for Nolan preferring structure over character in Memento, I think Leonard Shelby is the most-developed and by far the most tragic character in any of his films, so I definitely disagree. Teddy is also great, and Natalie was his only strongly-written female character until Selina Kyle came along. To me, Memento is Nolan's masterpiece precisely because structure and character development are in perfect balance from start to finish, and the ending elevates the story to bonafide Greek tragedy level. It might be almost an hour shorter than TDK, TDKR and Inception, but it's got everything it needs to work... and absolutely no fat.

I think Black Hawk Down (which won) deserved it just as much. But Memento's screenplay is a masterpiece in itself, and as much as I like Gosford Park, that Oscar should have gone to Nolan right then and there.

I don't think Memento was better than FOTR and Moulin Rouge (all three are about equally fantastic), but it sure as hell deserved nominations for Picture, Director and Actor, and a win for Screenplay.

That is some Lynchian shit.

Wow. Holy Motors? The Master? The Turin Horse? Ann Dowd? Cloud Atlas? Cosmopolis? Moonrise in cinematography?Gotta admire the hell out of OFCS for these nominations even despite the fact they snubbed QT in Original Screenplay.

Skyfall should be at over 284 by Friday, over 289 by Monday. From there it'll leg its way to 300-305. BD2 has very little chance though.

Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Make-Up - LincolnBest Actress, Editing - Zero Dark ThirtyBest Supporting Actress - Les MisérablesBest Original Screenplay - Django UnchainedBest Cinematography, Original Score, Visual Effects - Life of PiBest Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing - SkyfallBest Art Direction, Costume Design - Anna KareninaBest Animated Film - FrankenweenieLincoln - 6Life of Pi - 3Skyfall - 3ZDT - 2Anna Karenina - 2Django - 1Les Mis - 1Frankenweenie - 1Most nominations without a win - Silver Linings Playbook (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and likely Actor), The Master (Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Art Direction and maybe Actor). Unless the latter gets shut out in Picture, Art Direction and acting categories save for PSH.

Nolan is definitely on a higher career point right now (despite my disappointment in TDKR), but LOTR is better than anything he's ever done and after that Heavenly Creatures is on par with Nolan's best movie (Memento). Jackson's best films are more emotionally involving, and he has wider range as evidenced by HC, Braindead and Forgotten Silver - despite how consistently good Nolan is, literally every single film of his is about a troubled, obsessed, brooding white male. In 14 years, he hasn't done anything to prove he can tell stories about even a slightly different type of character. On the other hand, Nolan hasn't yet made anything as bad as The Lovely Bones. I dunno, it's a hard choice. If you only take blockbusters, both have a mediocre one, but then Jackson has 4 strong ones (I love King Kong) and Nolan has three, and like I said, I wouldn't choose any of those three over LOTR. If you take all movies, you have to consider that Jackson started out 11 years earlier and made 3 of his best films during those years. I'll go with Jackson.

MI3D should make at least $30m total, so while a lowest-grossing re-release it's not going to be a total disaster. These re-releases just reached the stage where they don't really excite anyone any more.