I can't call myself a big supporter of either Riva or Amour, but even I won't deny she has a perfectly fair chance to be nominated. Hell, at this point, the only two contenders with a noticeably better chance to get in than her are Chastain and Lawrence (who, by the way, hasn't won a single award for her performance yet), and then she basically has as much of a chance as Cotillard, Wallis, Watts and Weisz. Arguably even a better chance than the last two. What would make someone run around trying to prove she's a non-lock (and nobody ever claimed she's locked) I have no idea.