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trifle

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    RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    On 5/1/2018 at 2:57 PM, YLF said:

    I feel like such an outlier with this film. I actually liked it. I thought it could've been 10-15 mins shorter, but I liked that it kept having me guess whether she was working for the russians or the US towards the end. I had no idea which one. It wasn't a predictable film at all.

    You are only an outlier in the US.  Other countries loved it.  Hence the over $100M international.

    On 5/2/2018 at 8:48 PM, Box Office Freak said:

    can we all just finally admit that she's made money before purely from the franchises she was in and not because of her alone.

     

    She is NOT a box office draw

    Who else has done so well with so poor reviews and no IP?  And overseas?  I disagree.

    RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by trifle

     

     

    It has passed $100M international, and worldwide it will make or be close to $150,000, once it opens in Russia. It will end up making money in the aftermarket, particularly since they had Fox International distributing a bunch of places, but unless they have plans to trim the budget, I don't see a sequel happening.

     

    I really thought it was well done, though, and I loved the ending.

    • Like 1

    RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by trifle

    8 hours ago, Firepower said:

    Maybe because Aronofsky was her boyfriend? You know, friends with benefits.

    If you can't make your movie profitable, you're not worth 20 mln $. Period. JLaw is a great actress and maybe has some draw, but not enough to justifiy this kind of salary. She's not Jolie-level of draw at the peak of her career. There are many other great actresses with reasonable demands. And 40 mln $ version of Passengers with Keanu Reeves and Rachel McAdams would've made at least the same profit as JLaw-Pratt version, maybe even more with better movie.

    Do you realize that RS won't be profitable and studio will lose money? That means she didn't earn that paycheck, it's as simple as that. Passengers would have made at least the same profit with the original cast and budget.

    Aronofsky wasn't her boyfriend when the deal was cut.  She also took a pay cut for American Hustle and 'only ' asked $15M for Joy -- and the studio came to her and DOR to make it, and kept asking. She asks less up front for passion projects.

     

    However, if a studio wants HER in a picture, it is up to them what they pay.  As I stated above, I think she is sort of a catastrophic loss insurance policy for movies with poor reviews and little IP - Passengers made money despite it, and so will Red Sparrow, even if it ends up making it in the after market. RS has already made $130M ww on a $69M budget, and none of that money is from China so there is no steep applicable discount. It will make over double the budget in theaters, and her blu rays and streamed films sell well.

     

    And no, I don't think a Reeves/McAdams Passengers makes nearly as much with those scorching 'date rape' reviews.  They are great actors (I really, really like Keanu) but they don't have the overseas draw Jen and Pratt have, nor the domestic draw to fight those reviews, imho.  We will never know what that film would have done however, because it couldn't get financed until they had Jen's name on it, and Keanu tried for years.  (His company was still associated with the final project.) Getting it financed was worth $20M to someone, clearly.

     

    @straggler  RS passed Atomic Blonde's total take world wide early in RS's second week.

    RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

     

     

    17 hours ago, antovolk said:

    it's out in Russia days after the domestic Blu-ray release (so piracy will be up there), I'm willing to bet the government don't even grant it a screening license like with Death of Stalin. 

    Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if you were right.  I think 2+ x budget is the best it is going to do in theaters, but that is hardly terrible, and as said above 57% of attendees polled went for her.  It should make money in the after market, which, with Passengers, makes her something like a catastrophe insurance policy for films that get bad reviews and have no real IP.

    13 hours ago, ChrisTelclear said:

    We don't know what she really got for RS, it might have been $15M, we just don't know. But $20M was her quote at the time.

     

     

     

    Let me put it this way, if you swapped Alicia Vikander and Jennifer Lawrence in their roles for RS and TR, what do you think would've happened?  I think we'd be looking at better box office for TR, and much lower for RS.  There's no comparison on the draw. For most people, prior to TR, she was "Alicia Who?".  

     

     

     We don't have to go to Alicia, look at Charlize Theron in Atomic Blonde.  She is known in the US, is an excellent actress, and is gorgeous.  However, Red Sparrow outperformed its entire run globally by RS's second week, with much worse reviews (here, overseas reviewers liked it better.)  Draw includes international draw, and I think this movie further proves that Jen has that.

    2 hours ago, Bishop54 said:

    It doesn't help that JLaw is unlikable with regard to how she treats her fans. She admitted to purposely treating them like garbage. Sorry, when I hear stuff like that I'll just torrent her films, she's not getting my money.

     

    It's funny that I have never ever heard a fan say something like that.  You know who did say that?  Jen herself because she is always self deprecating.  She also DOES need space in public, or she would never have a normal dinner out with friends.  She isn't 'occasionally' recognized, it is constant.  Her fans are fine with getting selfies when she is at events, where she is there for that.  People who didn't like her to begin with raise these things against her, but they didn't like her anyhow.

     

     

    1 hour ago, Bishop54 said:

    Uhhhh trick question? I would think fans care. 

    Fans completely understand, and hope she'll have some break time between promo tours.

     

    1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

    The issue is JLAW has built a reputation of being cold to the avg movie fan rather than being cold to rude people lol.

     

    I am unsure if she is actually cold to her fans but that is the perception she has built lately. 

    Again, only with people who didn't like her before she said that in an interview last year.  And they were already a lost cause.  Amazing how invested they are in the issue, though.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

     

    Little update, because i didn't knew much about the Internet/javascript and so on, took me more time than I thought (it is not even a page of script  at the end), but I have finally a little program running that gather the Fandango sales every 3 minute in a text file, that is growing by just 590k each time, so I could gather a lot of data with that cheapo solution.

     

    I will try to gather all the sales occurring between now and say saturday and compare them to the actual box office to see if it is worth the effort to make a tracker that predict box office automatically from them.

    Having you on this site is really educational. Thank you!

    • Like 4

    Weekend thread | Deadline Friday Est. (p.11) ~ PR:U 10.1M, BP 4.4M, ICOI 3.7M, TR 2.8M, SG 2.7M, AWIT 2.1M, L,S 2.3M, P,AOC 1.5M, MS 1.45M, GN 1.2M, U 1.3M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by trifle

    4 hours ago, La Binoche said:

    Red Sparrow already out of the top 10? 

    Image result for jennifer lawrence overacting gif

    Yeah, it's not doing great domestically, and dropped 1100 more theaters this week.  I hope it crosses $50M DOM though, since it's drops have been decent.  It will probably depend on how many theaters it keeps and how long Fox keeps it in theaters. 

     

    On the other hand, it is doing great overseas which is excellent for growing Jen's continued international base.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2

    Wednesday Numbers - Tomb Raider - 1.64m, Game Night - $590k

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by trifle

    13 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

    A week ago was anybody predicting ICOI would surpass TR in the dailies on day 6? I didn’t think so. 

     

    I do not know a single person who has seen it but there is a segment of the population determined to see the movie as if tomorrow was the beginning of the end of days.

    Today too, it looks like. Tombraider is currently outside of the top 5 on Movie Tickets, it's

     

    ICOI

    PR

    BP

    Avengers

    AWIT

     

     

    But Paul is starting to show up on pulse, and that might impact ICOI

     

     

     

    LOVE, SIMON | 03.16.18 | Fox | trailer on page 1

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by trifle

     

    Well, I really liked this!! 

    6 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

    To those who have seen it, how is my avatar bae Katherine Langford in the film? Is she good?

    She's great!

    5 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

    This is selling very well at my theater. Over 50% of all available seats for this evening and night are sold out. :) Let's keep it going! 

     

    honestly, it's popular on my timeline, but I guess Twitter kind of enforces a same-think bubble to some extent.  I expected higher previews.  But hopefully word of mouth will do it.  TombRaider is competing for the young females, (yeah I know that may not be the target audience but tend to like a romantic story), so that's a thing.

    • Thanks 1

    RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by trifle

    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic:  $34,395,239    38.5%
    + Foreign:  $55,036,419    61.5%
    = Worldwide:  $89,431,658  

     

    So, since it only had night showings last Thursday, two weeks (until tonight's shows, with today not included in the numbers above) should have it at over $90M world wide. I guess I think that IS opening a movie.

     

    Particularly since it hasn't opened in a number of major markets yet.

    RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

    Yes. JLaw is the only thing that keeps it from being a bad movie.

    I thought it was good, and definitely enjoyable overall - parts certainly weren't, but the "he wants power" scene and the end were very satisfying.  But maybe that is a female take on it. 

     

    Clearly this movie won't be for everyone, but I'm not the only one who liked it.  It has been #1 for two weekends in Italy and Spain, and was #2 in Germany last weekend but #1 this past weekend.

     

    I think it is just a matter of taste.

     

    Quote

    Red Sparrow (2018)

    Red Sparrow
    Theatrical Performance
    Domestic Box Office $31,471,006 Details
    International Box Office $51,800,000 Details
    Worldwide Box Office $83,271,006  
    Further financial details...

     

    https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Red-Sparrow#tab=summary

    • Like 2

    Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by trifle

    1 hour ago, HesAPooka said:

    Would give it a total of 155-175 or a multiplier of 2.2-2.5. If this was Joy or something else original I'd say that's strong, but for something based on a popular book with a built in audience that's pretty mediocre/weak.

    It isn't popular in the sense that Twilight, Harry Potter or The Hunger Games were popular, and certainly not overseas.

     

    I am still hoping it will open in China with editing, as Logan did.  We'll see.  I was about to say that the number 1 opening in Taiwan might bode well for China, but actually I don't know if Taiwan's market is anything like China's in what they like.  It opened number 1 in Italy and Spain, as well, and number 2 in Germany.  Box office draw isn't only a domestic issue.

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