newbie BO buff

Depends on showtime allocation next week, which is super crowded

More than 5200 showtimes allocated for NWH today. OW tracking updated to anywhere between $4..8M to $5.6M Which means there will be a $10M+ blockbuster in 2021 after all.

Just came back from the premiere. Wow this is big. Throat sore from screaming, hands numb from clapping. After 10am tomorrow morning (local time) I will TRY to see how this will go in Indonesia and update the somewhat abandoned Indonesia box office thread.

My tracking currently shows $4.32M, but yes $5M is possible. And if Spidey can hold on to enough screens, that magical $10M barrier might be in danger after all. It's a very crowded marketplace, we'll see. Personally I will have a better idea of how this will go with audience after the premiere screening, Tuesday evening Jakarta time.

My cautious estimate at the moment https://twitter.com/bicaraboxoffice/status/1469235034343108611?s=20

It is official: 50% capacity from 24 Dec through 2 Jan. At least.

Unless number of daily shows drastically change, no. Capacity restrictions won't be further relaxed for a while, the country is anticipating COVID third wave late Dec through Jan.

Capacity restriction has been relaxed to 70% in some areas, but the major problem remains showtimes. The most exhibitors could manage is about 6.000, compared with 10.000+ pre-pandemic. Combined with 50-70% capacity restrictions, you can clearly see why Indonesia won't be seeing $10M+ blockbusters for a while. Q2 2022 looks to be the earliest that we can expect, taking into account COVID third wave anticipation as well. If you do simple extrapolation, you can clearly see how big Conjuring 3, F9, and Shang-Chi would have been in normal times. Shang-Chi, for example, would have easily hit $12.5M.

Probably $3M, just a guess. Very hard to predict at the moment.

Hollywood Tentpoles in Indonesia - second reopening period Released: 16/09 Black Widow 22/09 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 24/09 Space Jam: A New Legacy 30/09 No Time to Die 06/10 Malignant 06/10 Jungle Cruise 13/10 Dune 15/10 Don't Breathe 2 20/10 Free Guy 20/10 Halloween Kills 27/10 Candyman 29/10 Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard 03/11 Escape Room: Tournament of Champions 03/11 Last Night in Soho Planned: 10/11 Eternals 12/11 The Last Duel (high possibility of further delay) 17/11 Venom: Let There be Carnage 24/11 Encanto 01/12 Ghostbusters: Afterlife 01/12 The Boss Baby: Family Business 08/12 PAW Patrol: The Movie 08/12 West Side Story 15/12 Spider-Man: No Way Home 22/12 The King's Man 22/12 Sing 2 22/12 The Matrix Resurrections 29/12 Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City 29/12 Clifford the Big Red Dog 29/12 Ron's Gone Wrong (all schedules subject to change)

Dune is so-so (hard scifi don't do well here), Venom not yet.

30 September - No Time to Die 6 October - Malignant, Jungle Cruise 13 October - Dune, Venom: Let There be Carnage 20 October - Halloween Kills, Peter Rabbit 2, Ron's Gone Wrong 27 October - Candyman, Free Guy

I'll just wait for actuals and accept for what it is. Wednesday usually.

I still cannot see it under $1.8M

Number of shows: WED - 2300 THU - 2800 FRI - 2900 SAT - 3000 SUN - 3200

Screen expansion towards the weekend didn't go as I expected, so I toned down my projection to $2M. However, it is reported that the movie opened at $1.2M. I think that's too low, and could be just the FSS number (it opened Wed).

Right now I have it at $2.5+ OW.

Yes, at least close.

SHANG-CHI opens today, around 2.400 shows, that's about 50% of all available showtimes.

I will update on Wednesday.

Doing great in the usual geek-friendly locations, OK for the rest. Big issue for Shang-Chi: Most sites still only have 3 showtimes per day No Time to Die coming in just a week after

For the rest of September: SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS SPACE JAM: A NEW LEGACY NO TIME TO DIE As kids under 12 cannot go (no vaccines for them yet) it's movies like Space Jam that is going to be difficult.

I won't deny that.

UPDATE: Indonesian cinemas will reopen Thursday 16 September 2021. Second reopening titles might include: BLACK WIDOW THE SUICIDE SQUAD ESCAPE FROM MOGADISHU HARD HIT Wish us luck!

As Indonesia opens I will of course track Shang-Chi. It's due soon. Not next week but soon.