Jason

Were you still talking about Japan? Angry Birds is releasing in NA this weekend but Japan's release isn't until October 1. Edit: Derp. This was in reply to a comment re: domestic box office.

I think he was basing his projections purely off of sales in Japan rather than considering performance elsewhere. Are there examples of films that had near universal appeal elsewhere but did relatively poor in Japan? He may also just prefer to make conservative estimates. I know that as much as I believed Zootopia ought to do well in Japan, I didn't want to presume it would.

The key thing at this point is that even conservative estimates of the final total in all markets result in $1B or something very close to it. While it's possible that Zootopia might fall short of a conservative estimate in one of those markets (for example if Angry Birds + DVD release takes a couple millions off of domestic projections), it's very unlikely that it would fall short in all markets, and very likely that it would exceed a conservative estimate in at least one market. Agreed, $1B is locked.

I've come late to this thread, but this is a confusing 1st post...am I missing something?

Zootopia was actually further behind earlier in the day. As of 2:17 pm Japan time, now ahead: 　*1　*13469　ズートピア 　*2　*12739　殿、利息でござる！

Have to admit I was a little concerned when I heard about the early DVD release, but I'm no longer worried that losing a few millions from that will stop Zootopia from reaching $1B. In fact, I'm looking forward to it. First time I've ever pre-ordered.

I was expecting to see the OS-Japan drop this week due to Angry Birds, although not to ~$2M. I'm not going to try and make any OS-Japan estimates until tomorrow, however, when the actuals come in. In any case, after this weekend's performance in Japan, I'm a lot less worried about a few millions here or there from elsewhere.

I wouldn't be too surprised if the OS total gets revised upwards, that seems to be the trend. Domestic estimate of $331.8M probably won't change too much.

From Corpse: Weekend Forecast (05/14-15)/2016年05月14日-2016年05月15日01 (01) ¥430,000,000 ($4.0 million), +11%, ¥3,650,000,000 ($34.3 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK4 ~snip~ >Zootopia, in particular, is in spectacular shape. It held very well last week over the post-Golden Week weekend to earn its first #1 ranking (in its third weekend), and is looking to repeat this weekend. And I'm nearly 100% certain it's going to experience a weekend increase. Audiences are really, really taking advantage of the discount day to see this one. Last year, Cinderella only dropped 4% this weekend (without any assistance), so an increase does look almost assured for Zootopia. Does that count or did you mean Corpse seeing it before this weekend's prediction?

On the other hand, there's the Angry Birds release. I think the Netherlands, Poland, and Italy are the only European markets that don't have Angry Birds releasing this week.

My guess would be that movie tickets are relatively more expensive in Japan than in the US, so there's a stronger incentive to avoid going just one day before a discount day.

Okay, so here's how Zootopia has been doing for the past few weeks: Cume ($M) as of: 24-Apr 01-May 08-May Domestic 316.4 (+9.0) 323.8 (+7.4) 328.2 (+4.4) OS-Japan 588.1 (+11.8) 595.5 (+7.4) 602.1 (+6.6) Japan 4.0 13.5 27.9 Total 908.5 932.8 958.2 I calculated OS-Japan by substracting Japan's total from the OS total. I didn't bother to show the weekly gain for Japan or the total since it isn't particularly meaningful. Domestically, Zootopia's legs have been great so far, but it will lose screens with the Angry Birds release (May 20) and the dvd is coming out on June 7. I think a final domestic estimate of $336M is pretty reasonable. Overseas holds have also been very good so far, but again, Angry Birds is releasing this week in many overseas territories. With most of the overseas territories not being individually tracked it's harder to predict future performance. However, I think there's a good chance we could get another $10M, for a total OS-Japan of $612M. This also doesn't include Turkey. Turkey is opening June 10. Based on how other Disney animated films have done, $3M seems like a reasonable estimate. I think these estimates are somewhat conservative, although I'd welcome feedback. They result in a total of $951M, requiring $49M total from Japan for $1B. In the Japan thread, cannastop quoted Corpse: "[Zootopia's] chances of reaching the ¥5 billion ($45 million+) blockbuster milestone are very good." At this point, I'd say that it's more likely than not that Zootopia will reach $1B.

I meant $50M total. @cannastop thanks for the post from Corpse.

After this weekend's updated results, I'm pretty convinced we could need at little as $50M from Japan to pass $1B. Even a bit less, considering Turkey's got a decent chance of chipping in $3M or so. So question is - how likely is $50M from Japan at this point? What's the range of what we can expect from Japan? Is it still hard to tell?

Overseas total updated to $630M. Update: Domestic total also revised upwards to $328.2M, WW as of Sunday May 8 now $958.2M.

Last week's WW total after Monday actuals came in was $932.8M. OS-Japan was at $595.5M, now at $602M (estimate), so about +$6.5M. Ultimately WW-Japan should still come to at least $940M, up to $945M. Amount required from Japan of $55M-$60M is not much higher than earlier estimates, so I don't think anything from this week's US or OS-Japan results is likely to change whether or not Zootopia hits $1B. Unless Zootopia ends up falling just short of $1B.

The total on the third week will be the same, but the cumulative total will not be. Using this example: Case 1 cumulative: 1(0.5) + 1(0.5)(0.7) + 1(0.5)(0.7)(0.7) = 1.095 Case 2 cumulative: 1(0.7) + 1(0.7)(0.7) + 1(0.7)(0.7)(0.5) = 1.435 So yes, it does matter when the greater drop occurs, the sooner it occurs, the lower the cumulative total will be.

If you use last week's total and assume 30% drops from then on out, you arrive at $20.3M remaining. However, $5M of that remaining total was already included in the totals used by cannastop and Foul01, leaving $15M. Your statements are actually in agreement regarding the final domestic total of Zootopia ($339M).

Something's not adding up. The OS total as of Thursday was $597.5M, which would suggest that the weekend brought in $10.4M?

What number would we want to reach by next Sunday to be able to safely conclude Zootopia is on track for $50 million?

Generally speaking the US dollar has strengthened against most currencies in the past couple years. For some currencies there are more specific reasons such as low oil prices, but it's also because the US economy has been outperforming all other developed countries. @LMAbacus did an analysis on reddit that calculated an extra $84 million for Zootopia at 2013 exchange rates, as of about 1 week ago. Nevertheless, I don't think Zootopia reaching $1B at past exchange rates is going to satisfy many of us.

OS-Japan last week was $11.8M, $8M was just the weekend. I'm estimating remaining OS-Japan to be about $20M (including ~$5-6M this weekend), based on how well it's been holding the past couple weeks in remaining markets. (That could change, of course.) Domestic estimate might be a slightly optimistic. Showbuzzdaily has been projecting final domestic gross to be $340M, about $21M more. That's roughly the number you'd get if you assume Zootopia drops by 35% each week. Those kind of balance each other out though, so I agree we're looking for about $50M from Japan, and that Zootopia's still got a good chance of $1B.

Has anyone calculated a total for how much Zootopia earned in Japan from Mon-Thurs of this week? derp: it's just a few posts above this one (thanks @edroger3 )

Most recent prediction I found on Showbuzzdaily had US projection of 340M. Doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I think OS-Japan could be closer to another 24M more (617M 612M total). OS-Japan from Apr 17 to 24 was 11.8M, previous week excluding China was 16.4M, drop of only 29%. By those numbers, WW-Japan 957M 952M, so 43M 48M required from Japan. Still feeling optimistic about 1B WW, but I'm very new to this (first post!) and only discovered this site a week or so ago while trying to find predictions for how Zootopia would do in Japan.