Jason

I think what No Prisoners meant was that you wouldn't expect a new franchise to beat those in North America, so why expect it in Japan?

June 5 at the latest. Here's how Zootopia has been doing the past few weeks: Cume ($M as of:) 08-May 15-May 22-May Domestic 328.2 (+4.4) 331.8 (+3.6) 334.4 (+2.6) OS-Japan 602.1 (+6.6) 604.7 (+2.6) 606.7 (+2.0) Japan 27.9 34.3 (+6.4) 41.3 (+7.0) Total 958.2 970.8 (+12.6) 982.4 (+11.6) Domestic by the end of this weekend should be ~$336.5M, OS-Japan ~$608M, Japan $48-49M. Total about $993M. With ~$7M left to go, weekend of June 3-5 will definitely get us there.

Not sure if this is the right thread for this - but does anyone have any insights on inconsistencies in reported international grosses? Domestic gross is reported as the same number pretty much anywhere you look, but international grosses seem to be different. I presumed differences for individual countries had something to do with currency conversions, but I've noticed even the the international total differs on boxofficemojo.com vs. the-numbers.com (for example).

Admissions from the "usual listings". Not all of the theaters in Japan are listed on mimorin, if I recall correctly the "usual listings" represent about ~63% of the market, give or a take a couple percent.

There's really no perfect solution. A system that weights heavily at the top, with much larger weights for longer lists, will do a good job of excluding filler movies placed near the bottom but will allow some films highly placed on a very small number of lists to sneak in. Conversely, a system that has reduced weight at the top increases the risk of low ranked filler movies sneaking in. All in all, I think The Panda struck a good balance between these competing objectives.

How fortuitous: Lawrence of Arabia has been discounted in the Google Play store recently, to $9.99. When I looked a couple weeks ago it was $19.99. Not sure how long it'll be on sale for, but I probably wouldn't have checked again soon were it not for it appearing in this countdown.

Alright, deadline to enter the contest has passed. Just for fun I put all the predictions (15 total) on a number line. Average of all predictions is ¥10.287B. Median is ¥9.8B.

(delete)

[順位] [販売数] [映画作品タイトル名] 　*1　*49451　ズートピア http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/ Those are just the listed admissions, which I think works out to ~63% of the market. I usually just wait for @edroger3 to post his calculations, lol.

$95M. Deadline for revision is 1159pm in what time zone? Revised: ¥10.4B ¥10.75B

Will pass TLK for fourth highest-grossing animated film of all time by next weekend. Should pass $1B by June 12.

This...isn't a joke?

Here's a table showing the totals as of March 20 and May 15, and the increase between those dates. Market Mar 20 May 15 Increase Domestic $200,929,655 $331,840,173 $130,910,518 China $173,023,395 $236,086,416 $63,063,021 Germany $16,747,202 $32,200,000 $15,452,798 Australia $3,641,279 $20,270,172 $16,628,893 Russia - CIS $26,225,670 $34,852,128 $8,626,458 Brazil $2,574,107 $12,322,013 $9,747,906 South Korea $18,842,070 $31,538,191 $12,696,121 Japan $0 $34,335,852 $34,335,852 United Kingdom $0 $33,099,928 $33,099,928 Other Markets $148,846,277 $204,295,300 $55,449,023 Using this info, let's try and find the missing money. I'm going to assume a domestic total of about $340M, and that about $6M total will come from Turkey and remaining overseas markets excluding Japan. ("Other Markets" will have final total of $210M) So domestic will come in about $40M higher, China $14M lower. All other markets combined though are at about $369M, with about $6M still to come (remaining OS + Turkey). About $105M in underestimates, $14M in overestimates, therefore amount required from Japan about $90M less than estimated. China contributed another $63M ($13M higher). UK contributed $33M ($17M lower). Remaining markets (excluding Japan) will contribute about $125M ($15M higher). Domestic will be about $340M ($40M over requirement of $300M for $1B). Overall, $68M in underestimates, $17M in underestimates, amount required from Japan about $50M less than estimated. Domestic $20M higher, China $16M higher, UK $27M less than upper estimate, SK $1.5M higher, Russia $5M higher. All other markets will come to about $243M, $43M higher than upper estimate. Using the upper range and excluding Japan, about $85M in underestimates, $27M in overestimates. Most of the estimates are pretty close, although domestic will end up being close to $140M more ($30M higher than estimate). China came in $11M more than estimate, UK came in only $12M less. Australia did about $20M ($5M over), Brazil $10M ($2M over). However, only $45M was predicted from remaining markets, and that total is at $92M, and will end up being about $98M. ($53M underestimated) Overall, about $100M in underestimates, $12M in overestimates, accounting for the most probable total coming about $70M short even with the $65M Japan estimate. The general trend is that everyone did a pretty decent job on the foreign markets they specifically identified. However, the domestic market and remaining unspecified foreign markets (which varied from person to person) were underestimated by enough to greatly reduce the amount required from the UK and Japan for a $1B total.

The issue of untracked revenue only became major in the past few weeks, beginning with the weekend of Apr 22-24. The total amount of untracked revenue isn't huge though if you use the total country grosses (rather than just weekend grosses) - comes out to $9,727,687.

Alright, so now that I know this comment was in fact referring to domestic box office - I'm wondering if the increase this week might actually be related to Angry Birds taking over theaters. I know I went to re-watch this Tuesday because I had noticed that Zootopia was losing screens to Angry Birds on Thursday night and was worried the 3D screens might be around next week. In any case, I'm not too worried about it, at most Angry Birds will shave a few millions off of what would have otherwise been the domestic total.

Were you still talking about Japan? Angry Birds is releasing in NA this weekend but Japan's release isn't until October 1. Edit: Derp. This was in reply to a comment re: domestic box office.

I think he was basing his projections purely off of sales in Japan rather than considering performance elsewhere. Are there examples of films that had near universal appeal elsewhere but did relatively poor in Japan? He may also just prefer to make conservative estimates. I know that as much as I believed Zootopia ought to do well in Japan, I didn't want to presume it would.

The key thing at this point is that even conservative estimates of the final total in all markets result in $1B or something very close to it. While it's possible that Zootopia might fall short of a conservative estimate in one of those markets (for example if Angry Birds + DVD release takes a couple millions off of domestic projections), it's very unlikely that it would fall short in all markets, and very likely that it would exceed a conservative estimate in at least one market. Agreed, $1B is locked.

I've come late to this thread, but this is a confusing 1st post...am I missing something?

Zootopia was actually further behind earlier in the day. As of 2:17 pm Japan time, now ahead: 　*1　*13469　ズートピア 　*2　*12739　殿、利息でござる！

Have to admit I was a little concerned when I heard about the early DVD release, but I'm no longer worried that losing a few millions from that will stop Zootopia from reaching $1B. In fact, I'm looking forward to it. First time I've ever pre-ordered.

I was expecting to see the OS-Japan drop this week due to Angry Birds, although not to ~$2M. I'm not going to try and make any OS-Japan estimates until tomorrow, however, when the actuals come in. In any case, after this weekend's performance in Japan, I'm a lot less worried about a few millions here or there from elsewhere.

I wouldn't be too surprised if the OS total gets revised upwards, that seems to be the trend. Domestic estimate of $331.8M probably won't change too much.

From Corpse: Weekend Forecast (05/14-15)/2016年05月14日-2016年05月15日01 (01) ¥430,000,000 ($4.0 million), +11%, ¥3,650,000,000 ($34.3 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK4 ~snip~ >Zootopia, in particular, is in spectacular shape. It held very well last week over the post-Golden Week weekend to earn its first #1 ranking (in its third weekend), and is looking to repeat this weekend. And I'm nearly 100% certain it's going to experience a weekend increase. Audiences are really, really taking advantage of the discount day to see this one. Last year, Cinderella only dropped 4% this weekend (without any assistance), so an increase does look almost assured for Zootopia. Does that count or did you mean Corpse seeing it before this weekend's prediction?

On the other hand, there's the Angry Birds release. I think the Netherlands, Poland, and Italy are the only European markets that don't have Angry Birds releasing this week.