Ezen Baklattan

Jesus, this has been a rough year for Disney. Hopefully it’s still able to get a theatrical release.

I do think that general audiences will be kinder to this than critics, but there’s something to be said about how, aside from Strange World, this is only the second Disney movie in fifteen years to not be certified fresh, let alone fresh. That said…I do think Trolls and this are ultimately gonna cannibalize each other this weekend and limit its potential, especially with the middling reviews not doing much to entice an older audience. It’ll still probably be enough to win the weekend, lol

Damn that’s a tiny preview share.

Using the same Friday jumps as the past few MCU films, namely AMW3, GOTG3, BP2, Eternals, all comps converge to around $10m. I think it’ll probably be more of a Friday player, so it can still get to $11m, but it’s utterly damning that a 75% drop would require better weekend holds than most recent marvel fare. That said, Tuesday and Wednesday were under predicted by $100k so if that happens a third time the Wakanda Forever comp gets it at a 75% exactly.

Any Next Goal Wins numbers?

3.3 1.9 1.6 4 7.1 4.7 1.8 2.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 3.9 2.2 Currently predicting a $15.8m second weekend and a total of ~$71m by its second weekend. Taking it through Thanksgiving it'll be just under $90m. I think with Thanksgiving it'll still be able to clear $100m but there's a much closer ceiling after that.

Looking back at the same day structure from 2017, it looks like Thursday was a bit inflated (Ragnarok jumped 14% that day from its opening week) and continued well into Friday, but the jump on Saturday was quite muted. Still, with enough consistency targeting $6.5m previews, I think mid to high 40s is still possible?

It got a rerelease in a bunch of theaters near me with $5 tickets, and they must have forgotten to update th TC. Why? Your guess is good as mine.

Given the runtime and PG-13 rating, I’m predicting Next Goal Wins

I guess it’s not too surprising that Scorsese has such a cinephile fan base that would rush to buy tickets and heighten the bar to the point where the film couldn’t clear it. I’m not gonna comment with these numbers alone, but it’s very much in the “could have been better, could have been worse” camp.

damn, guess we have ANOTHER Best Picture contender

Welp, guess Taylor just pulled off a Premature ERAculation.

Most 3D in cinemas nowadays IS RealD 3D. Everything in 3D is pretty much digital and I think RealD has a monopoly on that format.

TBH I see a scenario where it somehow lands a PGA nomination but gets snubbed for, say, Zone of Interest at the ceremony itself. In fact lemme predict every precursor now lol. GOLDEN GLOBES, BEST DRAMA Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro May December Oppenheimer Past Lives Saltburn GOLDEN GLOBES, BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL Air American Fiction Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Poor Things CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Origin Past Lives Poor Things SAG BEST ENSEMBLE Air Barbie The Color Purple Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS Air American Fiction Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Poor Things BAFTAS, BEST FILM Anatomy of a Fall Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things

I’m not even sure if $25M is a guarantee lolol

I'm still surprised that nothing has tried to stake a claim on November 3rd yet, but guess Trolls and Marvels aren't moving lol

BEST PICTURE Oppenheimer Poor Things Killers of the Flower Moon Barbie The Holdovers Maestro Anatomy of a Fall The Color Purple The Zone of Interest Air BEST DIRECTOR Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Yorgis Lanthimos, Poor Things Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron BEST ACTRESS Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Emma Stone, Poor Things Carey Mulligan, Maestro Fantasia Barrio, The Color Purple Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall BEST ACTOR Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Colman Domingo, Rustin Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction Bradley Cooper, Maestro BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer Penelope Cruz, Ferrari Julianne Moore, May December BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer Ryan Gosling, Barbie Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things Willem Dafoe, Poor Things BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Barbie The Holdovers Air Anatomy of a Fall May December BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Poor Things Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon All of Us Strangers American Fiction BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon Poor Things The Zone of Interest Saltburn BEST FILM EDITING Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon Poor Things Air The Holdovers BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Barbie Poor Things Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon The Color Purple BEST COSTUME DESIGN Barbie Poor Things The Color Purple Priscilla Napoleon BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Poor Things Maestro Barbie Priscilla Ferrari BEST SOUND Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon Ferrari The Zone of Interest Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Oppenheimer Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 The Creator The Little Mermaid Rebel Moon BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon The Boy and the Heron Poor Things The Zone of Interest BEST ORIGINAL SONG "What Was I Made For?", Barbie "I'm Just Ken", Barbie "This Wish", Wish "Road to Freedom", Rustin "The Fire Inside", Flamin' Hot BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Boy and the Heron Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Vers Wish Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugger Elemental Don't know enough to predict International/Documentary yet, need I say anything about shorts? 12 – Oppenheimer, Poor Things 10 – Killers of the Flower Moon 8 – Barbie 5 – The Color Purple, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest 3 – Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari 2 – American Fiction, Elemental, May December, Priscilla, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

Sometimes you just gotta let it out. Here for ya, friend.

I agree, but you've also got movies like Dumb Money, A Haunting in Venice, and Expen4bles which rely a lot more on star power. You don't get much more of that from the Creator, but I think a lot got impacted.

I do think the fact that actors can't promote their films, especially ones that don't sell themselves, is playing something of a role. (A nice little egg to the face of people who refuse to pay actors fairly, mind you) That, and grosses are only 5% behind the TOTAL for 2022 with an entire quarter still to go. Even if I believed that reaching pre-pandemic levels of box office was possible, we'd still have a long way to go, but add me to the chorus that finds the doom and gloom premature, even if cinema becomes more event driven.

October 3rd would be the perfect day to release a trailer for this.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly was also not selected by France in 2007, with a much more American academy. It was nominated for Director and Screenplay. I'm definitely not writing off Anatomy of a Fall, especially if box office is at least decent.

At one of my local theaters it already passed all of The Creator's Thursday sales, though neither have done an awful lot.

AMC Location Sold Capacity % Sold Assembly Row 987 1,032 95.64% Boston Common 2,079 2,119 98.11% South Bay 708 742 95.42% TOTAL 3,774 3,893 96.94% AMC Location Fri Sat % Diff Assembly Row 987 1,202 21.8% Boston Common 2,079 1,948 -6.3% South Bay 708 552 -22.0% TOTAL 3,774 3,702 -1.9% I checked all the AMCs on the area, and the trends are the same. Everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) for Friday night is either sold out or down to wheelchair + companion seats, even the theaters outside the Boston metro area. Of course, Boston won't represent the entire country, but with ticket prices uniform, I think we'll see more of this than people think. That, and the Boston Common has large auditoriums and seat capacities. Tickets are behind for Saturday, even with showtimes as early as 9am, but I expect spillover to be strong from Friday. As for Sunday, who knows? Also any good tips on formatting and copying tables here? lol

Okay, let's do this. BEST PICTURE Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Poor Things Saltburn The Zone of Interest (ALT: The Boy and the Heron) BEST DIRECTOR Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet) Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese) Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan) Poor Things (Yorgos Lanthimos) The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer) (ALT: Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)) BEST ACTRESS Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) Annette Benning (Nyad) Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) Carey Mulligan (Maestro) Emma Stone (Poor Things) (ALT: Margot Robbie (Barbie)) BEST ACTOR Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) Colman Domingo (Rustin) Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) Barry Keoghan (Saltburn) Cillian Murhpy (Oppenheimer) (ALT: Bradley Cooper (Maestro)) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) (ALT: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) Ryan Gosling (Barbie) Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers) Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) (ALT: Charles Melton (May December)) BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Anatomy of a Fall The Holdovers May December Past Lives Saltburn (ALT: Air) BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY All of Us Strangers Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things (ALT: Next Goal Wins)