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Everything posted by Ezen Baklattan
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Based on what I've seen from Nimona and early reviews so far, I can definitely see it sneaking in here and maybe overtaking Elemental.
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Looking at last year's Father's Day behaviors, I ran some matrices for Elemental and the Flash with the following scenarios: The Flash: 2.6 to 3 IM, 7.5%-15% true Friday increase, 10-2.5% Sunday drop Friday IM 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Worst Holds $22.70m $23.42m $24.15m $24.87m $25.60m $26.32m $27.05m $27.77m $28.50m Avg. Holds $23.05m $23.79m $24.53m $25.27m $26.00m $26.74m $27.48m $28.22m $28.95m Avg. Holds $23.41m $24.16m $24.91m $25.66m $26.41m $27.16m $27.91m $28.66m $29.41m Best Holds $23.76m $24.53m $25.29m $26.05m $26.82m $27.58m $28.34m $29.10m $29.87m Elemental: 3.8 to 4.6 IM, 7.5%-15% true Friday increase, 15-7.5% Sunday drop Friday IM 2.6 2.65 2.7 2.75 2.8 2.85 2.9 2.95 3 Worst Holds $57.44m $58.94m $60.43m $61.92m $63.41m $64.90m $66.40m $67.89m $69.38m Avg. Holds $58.26m $59.78m $61.30m $62.82m $64.33m $65.85m $67.37m $68.89m $70.40m Avg. Holds $59.08m $60.63m $62.17m $63.71m $65.26m $66.80m $68.34m $69.89m $71.43m Best Holds $59.90m $61.47m $63.04m $64.61m $66.18m $67.75m $69.32m $70.88m $72.45m Hold me at gunpoint and I think we get a weekend like this... 1. THE FLASH - $65M 2. SPIDER-VERSE - $30.5M 3. ELEMENTAL - $26M 4. TRANSFORMERS - $24M 5. THE LITTLE MERMAID - $16M Need to see how Transformers held yesterday, but ATM sticking with about a $24m estimate for the weekend. Wouldn't even rule out it being #3 ahead of Elemental.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Ezen Baklattan replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
TBH I'd be very satisfied with over $30m for Spider-Verse, near direct competition from two angles. Think it could mean $20m next weekend easily. That TLM hold feels...a bit optimistic for me. Elemental isn't gonna drive as much double feature sales as, say, Incredibles 2 or Toy Story 4 would, and I think the more female skew might prevent a huge boost on Father's Day. If GOTG3 does drop only 25% this weekend, I think 3x is for sure happening. -
Welp, if Disney had its next Treasure Planet last year, it only makes sense that Dreamworks has its next Sinbad this year. I'm honestly surprised they're going theatrical exclusive and not a theatrical/Peacock split (I actually think the early VOD launch for Puss in Boots ended up helping its theatrical run, if partially to expediate the good WOM spread), but between families likely being satisfied by the one-two-three punch of Little Mermaid, Spiderverse, and Elemental (as well as to a lesser extent The Flash/Transformers), I doubt many will want to head back to the theater so soon. Feels like Dreamworks simply doesn't care about this one, but I suppose there's always a chance it ends up better than expected. Let's see how it fares at Annecy this week (it screens on Thursday)
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Ezen Baklattan replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Click on a site for a movie at Cinemark and it says "THIS MOVIE IS HOT! ### people have viewed this movie today" Gonna start logging data and see if there's any correlation lol -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Ezen Baklattan replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Don't know if anything will come of this, but what the hell: CINEMARK 'THIS MOVIE IS HOT!' COUNTER: Tuesday, June 13th, 2023: 2:30PM EST OPENING FRIDAY The Flash: 284 Elemental: 205 NOW PLAYING Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: 877 The Little Mermaid: 654 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: 491 The Boogeyman: 246 Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3: 226 About My Father: 211 Fast X: 125 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Ezen Baklattan replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Not that we're expecting much, but Ruby Gillman tickets just went on sale. Fairly clear that Indy is monopolizing the larger screens that weekend. -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Ezen Baklattan replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
Closest we got was May 27-29, 2005. 1 1 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith $55,205,972 -49.1% 3,663 +2 $15,071 $255,648,711 2 Twentieth Century Fox 2 - The Longest Yard $47,606,480 - 3,634 - $13,100 $47,606,480 1 Paramount Pictures 3 - Madagascar $47,224,594 - 4,131 - $11,431 $47,224,594 1 DreamWorks Distribution -
Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI
Ezen Baklattan replied to Issac Newton's topic in Numbers and Data
Considering the overperformance of TF, especially in how it took pretty much every PLF screen, Spider-Verse staying over $10M feels extremely impressive. Matching WW's holds feels a bit too optimistic, which puts it at $65m, but I think there's a strong path for both making $60m this coming weekend. At this point, I think Transformers takes the crown though, and I think if the stronger than expected walkups from last night are any indication, even $70m could be in play for it. -
Predictions as of June, already prepared for most of these to be wrong lmfao: BEST PICTURE Bob Marley: One Love The Color Purple Dune: Part Two How Do You Live Killers of the Flower Moon May December Oppenheimer The Holdovers Saltburn The Zone of Interest I think there's a real case where A24 prioritizes ZOI and lets Past Lives peak too early (as was the case with The Farewell), while Barbie is too much of a "I'll believe it when I see it" for reasons people have already mentioned in this thread, I'm a little bullish on including HDYL (especially when The Wind Rises got hyped as Miyazaki's final film potentially, only to get one nomination and lose to Frozen) but I think there's a "okay for REAL this time" element and GKIDS could well go big with promoting it.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Ezen Baklattan replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
It's hard to compare since the IM for Last Knight, which had a five-day opening, was fairly loaded into Friday and Saturday, but it's hard to say what the sentiment is for it right now. I think in terms of IM it's maybe a fool's errand to compare to pre-pandemic, especially six years ago, but I think a lot of these numbers could be pointing to a $50m+ weekend. -
As we got closer into the summer, a lot of family films were flat from Friday to Saturday minus previews, but I think the large PLF slant + lots of kids still in school will be enough to maybe give a 10% boost at least from a True friday? I think the true gross today is gonna be a bit of a wild card, but $55m feels like a decent goal? I think there's enough for $130m if it hits that.
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Definitely think it's taking at least one big award, if not the Palme.
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If The Color Purple delivers, I think Barrio's easily the frontrunner. The role has won a Tony in both its original and revival runs, and her eleven o'clock number is a HUGE emotional wallop. Of course, so did Ben Platt for Dear Evan Hansen, but early word on this feels a lot more promising.
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I think high 50s feels like the target for this weekend? Would need around a 200% increase on Friday but that should be doable. Think a multiplier around what Bad Guys/Sonic did last year feels way too optimistic. But I do like using The Jungle Book (2016) as a comp for the remainder of its run a lot, which would put it just over $600m when all is said and done.
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A ratio similar to Scream VI would get it close to $20m, and without as much pent up demand, I could see it picking up. Feels like it has a big disadvantage of not getting a lot of PLF screens.