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About kswiston

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    Indie Sensation

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  1. Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Gewara etc)

    People here also had TLJ at like $70M at one point in the presales analysis cycle, so we'll see where things land.
  2. Easily. It was only $90M behind DH2 as of Wednesday, and China's Friday total (plus previews) was more than $70M. Just the domestic Thurs-Fri in addition to China puts it over DH2 today.
  3. Domestic should be $545M or so after this weekend. China looks to be heading for $200M give or take a little bit. That is around $1.515B before adding in Thurs-Sun for the rest of the international markets. Should end up pretty close to $1.6B
  4. Even Civil War legs after a 110M weekend is 617M. 650M is still probable.
  5. Next weekend will probably be over 1.5B. Also I am not sure why people are going so extreme in the pessimistic direction after a 57% weekend drop (maybe a tad better if Sat was depressed a bit from sporting events). Some of you are predicting the same multi as AoU. AoU had an OW multi of 1.46x OW after its second weekend. IW is already around 1.74x. So it would have to have significantly worse legs going forward to only hit 2.4x.
  6. A potential $125M second weekend for Infinity War, and everyone is talking about Tully. Seems like BoT!
  7. You guys are being absurd in your inflation of Avatar in the Chinese market. Most of the growth in the past decade has come from local films. $200M for a hollywood film in 2009 is not $2B for a hollywood film in 2018. Just like Transformers 2's $65M total that same year isn't equivalent to $650M now. No hollywood film has come anywhere near that.
  8. $600M is already locked in North America
  9. Wed #s IW - 16.8m

    Without overanalyzing 6 days of data, my takeaway from this is that the path to 700M+ domestic for IW stays open. BP and IW both hitting that after releasing 2.5 months apart would be unreal.
  10. Monday Numbers - A:IW 24.74M

    Wasn't that person saying that the Sun number was several million higher than it ended up being? Edit: it looks like he said $70M was a bare minimum. I thought that he was off by more.
  11. Even if Infinity War misses $2B, 4th of all time, ahead of JW but behind TFA, is a lock. Based on Mojo numbers, AoU would have had an opening around $265M OS if it opened everywhere simultaneously except for China and Russia. Ultron ended up making around $670M OS not counting China/Russia. If Infinity War can manage the same legs off of this $382M opening, it would make $965M, before adding in China (and whatever little Russia brings). So $1.2B OS is probably on the lower end of things. $1.1B is the floor with weaker than expected holds. I'm thinking that $600M is pretty close the the worst case scenario domestically (Civil War Legs is still $588M), which gives you a floor in the $1.7B range if OS holds are mediocre and if China is being greatly overestimated right now.
  12. Black Panther > Infinity War Domestic Club

    I doubt that Infinity War tops out at 500M, but I also think that topping BP is a long shot. 700M (or close to it) is no joke.

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