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About kswiston

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    Sleeper Hit

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  1. The way that I look at it, The Last Jedi made $47M more after a $23.7M weekend a year ago in this slot. As long as Aquaman stays ahead in the dailies through MLK Day, it would be pretty hard to miss 300M. Even if drops are suddenly worse than TLJ after that point.
  2. https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-bumblebee-new-years-weekend-box-office-1202526812/ 51.6M for Aquaman, 31.9M for Poppins, 20.5M for Bumblebee, and 19M for Spider-verse
  3. Christmas was monday last year
  4. Ignoring China, Justice League hit 273M internationally after its third weekend. Aquaman will top that in the next 5 days with holiday legs in many territories, plus Australia opening. Also, many territories will only be in their second weekend internationally, while JL had a more global launch. Domestic ultimately will pass 300M unless it starts collapsing quickly. This weekend could hit 200M (I am thinking 195M at worst), and then Aquaman will have NYE and New Years, plus at least some schools off until Jan 6th. China is looking like maybe 275M. If not, pretty close. If Aquaman just matched JL internationally outside of China, it will hit at least 900M worldwide with those figures. But JL only made 26M outside of China internationally in weekend #3. Aquaman clearly has a lot more momentum, given that just Xmas wasn't far below that. If 1B doesn't happen, it will be close.
  5. Are people expecting great legs? Because The Last Knight only did around 250M outside of China internationally, and Bumblebee seems way down in most comparisons so far.
  6. The Hobbit 1 only did 4x its Wed-Sun on this same set up in 2012, so I don't think that better legs than openers is a given. The dates don't line up, but last year The Last Jedi did around 3.5x its Wed-Sun and Ferdinand did 6.5x. If you do the same for Rogue One, Collateral Beauty, TFA, Sisters, Alvin 4, Hobbit 3, Night at the Museum 3, Annie, Hobbit 2, and Madea, you will find that Ferdinand had by far the best multiplier of the bunch. The rest didn't even hit 5x that Wed-Sun for their post-first tuesday run, and most were under 4x. That's every major third weekend of Dec release since 2012. You can definitely argue that Spider-verse reviewed a lot better than most of those, and doesn't have the Star Wars first week rush, but 8-9x seems more based on optimism than past data.
  7. Aquaman is a comic film. All of them get user review sandbagged because of fanboy wars. As an example, Justice League has 126k user reviews. Jumanji has 37k. Jumanji had nearly double the domestic box office.
  8. Pretty sure Deadline originally had Venom previews around $7M, so these early previews estimates can be off by a lot in either direction.
  9. Ya, 700M is dead. Same exact domestic and international legs as FB1 from this weekend forward is a bit under $675M, and there is no reason to assume that it will start holding on par with FB1.
  10. Venom will need more than another $15M in China to clear $850M worldwide. Entgroup has $19.45M of $21.3M coming from China this weekend. Venom's run in the rest of the world has just about wrapped up.
  11. Fantastic Beasts 1 only made about $78M more domestically past that Thanksgiving Sunday. FB1's second FSS was about $45M. For argument's sake, let's say that FB2 does $30M this weekend during FSS. With the same legs as FB1 going forward, you get another $52M. Or $169.5M total. $185M would be a lot more than just generous. FB1 has held better since the start. So to hit $185M, FB2 would have to have an amazing drop next weekend, and hold venues well through those december weeks where we are getting 4-5 openers. Low 170s is definitely possible without invoking crazy holds, but I am not seeing much evidence that things are heading that way yet.
  12. 175-180M domestic for FB2 is dead. It would have to outperform the drops first film going forward to hit 175M. FB1 made 12.2x its Thanksgiving Wednesday during the rest of its run. FB2 needs 13.6x Wed to hit 175M now. 160M domestic might be optimistic. So down over 100M between domestic and China. I think that we have enough to call 700M+ unlikely.
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