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About kswiston

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    Indie Sensation

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  1. My guess is that anything over $28.5M today will have Universal claiming the Oct weekend record from Venom tomorrow morning. Maybe even $28M.
  2. Both of those characters were in the previous films. Any effect that they may or may not have had on box office appeal would already be factored into the 2015 films.
  3. What is Dying to Survive expected to make on Sunday? 3-day total without previews is around 780M unless I messed something up. I assume 1B for the 4-day is locked. Can it pass 1.05B?
  4. kswiston

    Jurassic World II OS Thread

    Mojo didn't update yesterday, so the domestic total was previously missing both Tuesday and Wednesday. Domestic total after Wednesday was a bit under $298M. So if we are throwing in Thursday, it will either break $1B today, or be like $1-2M shy. Assuming the International Thurs estimate holds up.
  5. I am still having a hard time seeing Incredibles 2 over JW2 considering that it's 3 days vs 3.5 this weekend. But right now, it does seem that either Incredibles manages much better than the expected 85-90M, or Fallen Kingdom misses that 135M+ tracking by a fair margin.
  6. How close are Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 on those charts right now?
  7. The noise made about Age of Ultron's drop was always overblown. If exchange rates didn't dip in late 2014, it would have been about even with Avengers 1 worldwide. Even domestically, it wasn't terrible. It wasn't great, but plenty of sequels to huge films dip in the 25-30% range. Just a drop in repeat viewing on sequels can be a big blow. 2015 just had a lot of big films, some of which were unexpected. So Ultron went from being what people had pegged as a contender for #1 of the year to being completely overshadowed. In the end, AoU held a lot better from Avengers than any of the sequels from the $1.5B+ 2015 films.
  8. Sony Pictures Animation has a better track record than WB though. WB has released two animated films in that same Sept window as Smallfoot, and neither was anywhere near $100M. SPA released 5 films in that slot, and 4 were over $100M. The 5th still beat both of the WB efforts, despite coming out a decade before.
  9. $100M is a low enough barrier, that we could get some left field surprises late in the year that wouldn't stand out as possibilities on a release schedule right now. But I don't see 2018 challenging the $100M+ record. The huge films are taking too much oxygen out of the room for films releasing in their shadow to break out. Rampage would have been over $100M if it had another week before Infinity War for instance.
  10. Speaking of superhero films that clearly needed a fudge to boost their pathetic numbers: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=avengers11.htm
  11. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=pixar2014.htm http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=pixar1117.htm
  12. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=cars3.htm
  13. I am confused why you keep using gross production budgets, when it is pretty obvious that tax incentives/breaks are pre-factored into film budgets. Also, Avengers kicked off a general growth of the superhero genre internationally. Especially in China. There's a pretty clear line of before and after The Avengers for all superhero films. Especially in China.
  14. I don't think that it's an accident that MCU international grosses went through the roof as soon as Disney took over. Also, ignoring the fact that it is very unlikely that Marvel would still be independent by now if Disney didn't snap them up, and independent MCU would have had Perlmutter ruining things. RDJ would have gotten the boot. Feige might have bailed by now due to his conflict with Permutter. We wouldn't have some of the films we are getting recently. Definitely not in the forms that we got them.
  15. Next week, Disney becomes the first studio in history to break $2B in the domestic box office before the first half of the year is finished. Edit: Disney 2018 is only the 7th time a studio has broken $2B at the domestic box office in a calendar year, making it even more impressive.

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