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kswiston

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About kswiston

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  1. Hitting Rogue One domestic is dead. Rogue One will go from being 50M behind on Tuesday to being maybe 10M behind this coming Monday. My guess is that Rogue One pulls ahead by the end of weekend 4, and that weekend 4 for RO is 8-10M higher than TROS. I still think that Disney pushes TROS to 500 if it looks to get close (which it does), but I am not expecting much better than BatB domestic.
  2. "New" as in not currently running. Not necessarily new IP. Could be a relaunch. Could be 2027's equivalent of Potter or the Hunger Games. Who knows. 10 years is a long time.
  3. TROS is not the last chance at 600M in the next 10 years. Come on. You can have an entire trilogy of blockbusters that haven't even started yet in that time. Nevermind stuff like Jurassic World or Black Panther that were being pegged at half of what they made domestic before release.
  4. Disney's eventual 11B+ worldwide this year is pretty insane. Beating their own record by over 45%. Worldwide annual studio record has doubled in the past 5 years.
  5. Some of the legs difference between BvS and JL is due to the fact that BvS opened easter weekend and JL opened the week before Thanksgiving. Some of it was the audience not caring to rush out to see it. By the logic above the Mockingjay films had a better audience reception than The Hunger Games or Catching Fire.
  6. The way that I look at it, The Last Jedi made $47M more after a $23.7M weekend a year ago in this slot. As long as Aquaman stays ahead in the dailies through MLK Day, it would be pretty hard to miss 300M. Even if drops are suddenly worse than TLJ after that point.
  7. https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-bumblebee-new-years-weekend-box-office-1202526812/ 51.6M for Aquaman, 31.9M for Poppins, 20.5M for Bumblebee, and 19M for Spider-verse
  8. Christmas was monday last year
  9. Ignoring China, Justice League hit 273M internationally after its third weekend. Aquaman will top that in the next 5 days with holiday legs in many territories, plus Australia opening. Also, many territories will only be in their second weekend internationally, while JL had a more global launch. Domestic ultimately will pass 300M unless it starts collapsing quickly. This weekend could hit 200M (I am thinking 195M at worst), and then Aquaman will have NYE and New Years, plus at least some schools off until Jan 6th. China is looking like maybe 275M. If not, pretty close. If Aquaman just matched JL internationally outside of China, it will hit at least 900M worldwide with those figures. But JL only made 26M outside of China internationally in weekend #3. Aquaman clearly has a lot more momentum, given that just Xmas wasn't far below that. If 1B doesn't happen, it will be close.
  10. Are people expecting great legs? Because The Last Knight only did around 250M outside of China internationally, and Bumblebee seems way down in most comparisons so far.
  11. The Hobbit 1 only did 4x its Wed-Sun on this same set up in 2012, so I don't think that better legs than openers is a given. The dates don't line up, but last year The Last Jedi did around 3.5x its Wed-Sun and Ferdinand did 6.5x. If you do the same for Rogue One, Collateral Beauty, TFA, Sisters, Alvin 4, Hobbit 3, Night at the Museum 3, Annie, Hobbit 2, and Madea, you will find that Ferdinand had by far the best multiplier of the bunch. The rest didn't even hit 5x that Wed-Sun for their post-first tuesday run, and most were under 4x. That's every major third weekend of Dec release since 2012. You can definitely argue that Spider-verse reviewed a lot better than most of those, and doesn't have the Star Wars first week rush, but 8-9x seems more based on optimism than past data.
  12. Aquaman is a comic film. All of them get user review sandbagged because of fanboy wars. As an example, Justice League has 126k user reviews. Jumanji has 37k. Jumanji had nearly double the domestic box office.
  13. Pretty sure Deadline originally had Venom previews around $7M, so these early previews estimates can be off by a lot in either direction.
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