kswiston

Isn't that the way of of this site? When tomorrow's estimate comes in at $195M, we'll get a bunch of "what went wrong?" and "Jurassic World will have no legs. $425M max!" type posts

Ignoring the fact that $100M is pretty much impossible (that would be a 56% increase over Friday proper), your Sunday number would end up being around $70M, and your weekend number over $250M.

Check to make sure you didn't step into the Entourage theatre by accident.

The opening record never lasts long. The record has been broken 23 times since Jaws in 1975, and no one has held it for more than 4.5 years. I could see the record going down a number of times in the next 3 years, sort of like what happened in 2006 to 2008.

Isn't 98M on the low end of things if yesterday was 78M? That's just over +25%

I've been following these threads for the past few weeks, and while you were right to call Age of Ultron out on poor legs before some of us conceded that, you have been lowballing it pretty consistently since then. I'd have to dig through the thread, but the film has already beat all of your tallies from 3 or so weeks back (when you were suggesting that the film had a shot at missing HP8's total). You had domestic at $430M at one point despite no real reason to suggest that it was going to fall behind Iron Man 3's weekly earnings. I think both your domestic and overseas remaining tallies are on the pessimistic side of things. We'll have to see about Japan, since that could go either way. $1.4B will be close, but I think it will be close enough for Disney to push it over.

How? Even taking your $15M more from holdovers, Domestic will be good for around $17M more. That leaves $20M left. It would have to outright bomb in Japan to miss $1.4B.

Rentrak will probably post an updated total in a couple hours if we don't get something before then.

Then we saw the post May 1st drops.

Around $65M left before Age of Ultron passes Deathly Hallows' overseas take. Assuming ~$25M from Japan, $40M more seems plausible for Age of Ultron.

FURIOUS 7: $1.157B Overseas Total / $1.506B Global Total

Look at previous posts in the thread. Gitesh rounded to the nearest $10M, so the Rest of World share is $3-4M higher than what you listed.

AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON: $859.8M Overseas Total / $1,263,865,000 Global Total #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

FURIOUS 7: $1.152B Overseas Total / $1.499B Global Total

$35M for the weekend would be lower than Iron Man 3's third weekend, despite the fact that Avengers has kept a 12-16% lead on Iron Man during the weekdays this week.

Pretty sure he is saying that those mulipliers are for total gross based on six Day grosses.

What does Furious 7's weekly gross look like when we Subtract China's share?

Its drop was 12% this weekend. Too bad AoU can't have those Paul Blart legs

I think people are starting to get ahead of themselves in the pessimism. After this weekend, AoU gets pretty close to $440 if it just makes exactly the same amount as Iron Man 3 did coming out of its second weekend, and Iron Man 3 had pretty bad drops during its 3rd-5th weekends. I think that less competition this May will see the movies start to separate in coming weeks. Obviously $500M isn't happening, but I don't think $450M is in danger.

I sort of feel like Iron Man 4 would have been back down into the low 300s in the domestic market. I don't really get the sense of pent up demand for a fourth solo film.

If Age of Ultron is sitting at $310M after this weekend, that $100M difference is entirely attributed to the domestic drop and the fact that China is launching late. Not sure how that equals a massive disappointment (considering this is the international thread).

Thor 2 had its legs severed by Catching Fire, and Iron Man 3 had a ton of competition in its third/fourth weekend. May seems to be fairly soft this year, so I think Age of Ultron will fair a little better in its later weekends. Not a ton better, but enough to finish with $475-490M instead of the $450-460M it would receive if it followed IM3/Thor2. EDIT: Adjusted my range, since $500M is starting to look like a longshot.

I think he meant over the course of a weekend. Obviously $1.091B and $1.098B are basically the same thing, but they were reporting $52.8M for the international weekend. If the true number is around $46M ($7M lower), they overpredicted by about 15%. I don't know how typical that margin of error is for an overseas gross (especially in week 5), but would be like Disney estimating Age of Ultron's opening at $220M and then getting the $191M actual the next day. People would flip out.

After the first overseas weekend Age of Ultron was sitting at $201M. Avengers was sitting at $185M after the same point in time. The difference between the two was 8.6%. After the second weekend Age of Ultron was sitting at $439M. Avengers (minus China) was sitting at $429M. The difference is 2.3%. This does not take into consideration what markets were open or for how long. Avengers 1 made 1% more than Age of Ultron this past week, largely due to differences in European legs since Age of Ultron handily won this weekend, even if you give Avengers 1 China.

if China hits $250M, Age of Ultron would have to drop by over $100M from Avengers 1 in the rest of the foreign market to end at $950M. It's going to have to start doing that really soon, since Avengers was past the half-way point in its international gross after this weekend, and Age of Ultron is about $30M ahead in non-Chinese markets. EDIT: To put it another way. Let's say Japan only manages $30M this go around. $700M outside of China would mean that you expect the film to only make ~$240M more in holdover markets, coming off a weekend that was close to $170M. The film made that much in the past week. You much be expecting some monster drops in the new markets, despite no real Hollywood competition for a few weeks. If China hits $250M, I think that $1B overseas will easily be passed.