Johnny Tran

I calculated a week back around $415M domestic and $720M OS which of course is $1.135 billion but this past weekend's drop overseas makes it seem more likely to be on the lowe end of $700M OS. I have to look at again. I still say $1.1 billion is definitely happening. I don't see it going much further than that but it's a great result nonetheless.

I don't know what you just said or are implying rather, your post is all over the place. I made it clear that I wasn't going to discuss budget/production/marketing costs because there isn't enough information in front of us, there aren't real numbers to look at. I don't care much for hypothetical situations like "if it cost $200M and then factor in another $150M"... no. If you want to play that game by all means but I am not going to spend time going down a rabbit role that leads to nowhere. You need information and the info isn't in front of us.

I was not expecting a huge multiplier on CM. Most MCU movies these days it's going to be a huge opening weekend and then so-so legs because so much interest was already burned off on the opening weekend. It's great that Wonder Woman can have a good opening weekend and then WOM kicks in and it ends up have this colossal multiplier. That's awesome and it speaks to how well Wonder Woman was received by audiences. I think people want to point to a multiplier with CM and say "look, it's not that well received" but that's tough to do with such a huge OW and other factors in play like it not being a summer movie etc.. But then I look at Black Panther and it opened to $200M and still made it to $700M. So it will end up with a better multiplier than CM and also had a bigger opening weekend, all that can suggest is that Black Panther was very well received and basically a cultural phenomenon in North America. I don't think that can be argued. CM there is an argument to be made on both sides.. A softer multi could point to it being just an "ok" movie through the eyes of most. But it doesn't mean necessarily that is the case. It's going to end up making as much in NA as Wonder Woman. It sucks but with Wonder Woman you could say yes it was very well received but with CM it's harder to reach the same conclusion because of the hye surrounding the opening weekend. Here's the thing. There is NEVER going to be a confirmation on CM on either side. I think there is more out there to suggest that it is well received but the trolls DO have an argument and as long as there is a possible argument then the war will rage on for eternity.

Sorry I don't think the "intelligent" thing to do is play around with numbers that aren't in front of us. We can play around with the box office numbers because that is reported to us. I can't play around with a number that might be $155M but might also be $200M but because of tax breaks might be less and so and so on. If you want to have that discussion that's fine, that's not a conversation I want to have unless I have the data in front of me. Good day.

Again you and others have brought this up but the problem is we do not have all of the costs detailed in front of us. We are guessing based on maybe one good source.... maybe.. if that... I don't like spending a lot of time on something where I can't look at the raw numbers. There were people saying such and such movie needs to make oh $900M to break even and I'm thinking okay, maybe Deadline has a source on that but where is the actual numbers? If the numbers aren't in front of me then I'm not too interested in discussing that.

I don't know how moving the goalposts on returns is beneficial to the discussion but If we want to talk about impressive returns then a movie like IT making $700M worldwide with a tiny budget (according to a source that may or may not be reliable) of $35M is more impressive to me than any of these huge 'blockbuster' type movies. This discussion started because people are unhappy with the reception CM is getting on these boards. What type of reception should it be getting? What does it warrant? I agree it warrants more than a "meh" but what should everyone be saying? Wow, greatest run ever? It's a good run, even a great run, that's fair. Leave it at that.

If anyone is going to cite me on budget costs and marketing costs and use that as your main talking point, then you should at least provide a source other than "this is what's listed on BOM" because the reality is that none of us actually know what the real budgets are and we are just guessing based on a source that may or may not be reliable.

Ignoring the obvious trolls in this thread, I could see this being the case with The Last Jedi at least because the TFA did over 2 billion and now your sequel is doing $700M less.. that's a pretty big drop and it's worth mentioning. Paul Walker died.. there was some type of box office boost in relation to him passing away. If expectations for F8 were higher than F7 then that's just not paying attention to certain factors affecting the box office. Expectations for F8 should not be $1.5B or higher, anything over a billion should have been considered a great achievement and it actually did $1.2

I picked F8 as an example. I could have also said Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom. There were people saying JWFK was unimpressive. I think it's insane to say it about any movie that reaches a billion.

I'm a fan of action movies like Fast. I'm a fan of all movies. This site isn't a haven for fanboys, at least not from what I remembered. It should be about numbers for all movies.

Well, I discussed that too. There were some posts that downplayed Aquaman. I'm going to get this right. It wasn't @Thanos Legion that donwplayed it but there were others that said it wasn't impressive. @Thanos Legion simply said it is easier to reach a billion now than it was even 5 years ago. Which is true. But I find it interesting that it was even brought up for that specific movie. If that statement is true then let it be true for all movies.

Why? Why is there more investment in tracking one genre over another? It's a site dedicated to box office numbers, it's not a fan site. Unless you're telling me that it is a fan site now? I remember when I first started posting here or even when I was lurking the threads there was discussion on all types of movies and all types of runs.. What happened?

All I'm saying is a little consistency would go a long ways. 😉 Captain Marvel isn't a typical 1st entry. It's the 21st movie into the MCU. An 8th movie in a franchise doing $1.2 billion some 17 years or so after the first one was released is not something to be excited about? It doesn't deserve high praise? This is where the biases come in.

Perfect example: Fast 8. Fate of the Furious did $1.2+ billion. I don't believe CM will catch that number. It was treated as "meh" on here. Both movies probably cost around the same ballpark to make, F8 did better overseas and CM is doing better here in North America. Nobody was tracking F8 every day and saying what a great run at the box office it's having. In fact, people were saying it should have done more. Again, CM will not reach $1.2B

The problem with CM is that yes it is having a good run and will finish above a billion WW but there have been recent films where similar runs were downplayed on here so there is no reason to be "OMG what a run by CM!" .... if all movies that had similar runs were treated equally then maybe there would be more excitement for what CM is doing.

Daamn I thought the trailers looked good but I was still iffy on it, the original is so great, Gwynne is awesome and IMO irreplaceable. But everything I'm seeing says this is great. I can't wait to see it. Shame it's getting lost in the hype over other movies.

Lion King is going to be HUGE because even if it's not great it's going to look fantastic and I think there are certain properties like Lion King and probably Beauty and the Beast where they are sooo well known that people have to see for themselves. Aladdin falls in that camp with me. But yeah, these live action remakes.. I'm not sold on them at all, the animated films will always stand the test of time.

In an alternative timeline this might be true.

Is it right to call these reviews mixed? I guess that's the word but usually I'd say it's almost damn near bad.

I come in here and there's talk of "snyder" "gloom" "dark" what fucking year is this? Let it go people.

The trailers looked good. I'll still watch this of course but I've yet to hear many glowing reviews. SMH.

It could drop into the 80s but I assume WB is readying the "93% on RT" spot as we speak? At that point everything else is moot.

No, I just keep getting narc'd 😏

I don't believe it was your comments that I was talking about. I went back and checked some comments and yours were tame compared to other comments that suggested the run wasn't impressive at all. To me a billion is still a magic number. I don't believe it will always be this way, for instance I am always going to be way more impressed with Titanic's run over other movies even if it is surpassed by many in the future.

So every time someone points out a fact they are "worked up"? I get that it's easier to go that route than to debate a point, so here we are lol, Yes, Shazam! is getting great reviews. I'm happy for it and hope to see it do well.