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averagejoe

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Everything posted by averagejoe

  1. Jumanji 2 wont be the biggest threat imo. I think Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer will be the most dangerous one.
  2. When will we get an estimate of Coco's OW gross?
  3. Presales Coco 94k Keys to the Heart 79k I am thinking Coco should win the weekend if it keeps maintaining the gap?
  4. 37m is too low for holdovers imo. UK can add about $25m more, South Korea $10m at the very least, Argentina about $6m and other holdovers around $15m. Total around $56m for holdovers. If you add in the nordic countries which should do around $15m in total, Coco will have already crossed $730m before Japan opens.
  5. Coco stands at $656m worldwide now. Still needs $165m to get to WW. Dom can add another $7m or so. UK should add about $30m. South Korea $15m or more, The nordic countries (where it has yet to open) can add about $15m, and other holdovers can add about $20m more. Adding these up it will need $78m from Japan, which would place it #4 Pixar film in Japan behind TS3 ($126M), Nemo ($102M) and MU ($90M). Considering how Coco is already the highest grossing Pixar film in China and locked to be second highest grossing Pixar film in South Korea (with an outside chance of first), I see no reason why Coco will not replicate this in Japan and climb into the top 3 Pixar films released there. So judging by how Coco has been playing out in major Asian territories, I would say Coco has a decent chance at crossing Wonder Woman worldwide.
  6. With this opening, can Coco get to $35m considering the good WOM, critical acclaims and reviews, BAFTA nomination and potential win as well as the school holidays coming up?
  7. It still has Japan and the nordic countries. So yes, $700m is locked and $750m is likely locked too. $800m plus and even WW is within reach if it breaks out in Japan just like China.
  8. Coco now at $200.7m Dom and $455m OS for WW total of $655.7m. Passes Moana and JL.
  9. I am thinking comparing Coco to Inside Out may not be an ideal comparison. Especially since Inside Out was released at the start of summer vacation whereas Coco is released halfway through winter vacation. Summer is generally a better season for the box office as the winter cold can deter many people from leaving their house. This is especially relevant this year since the winter in South Korea is at a record cold. I was in Seoul a few weeks back and the cold was really very bad. On 11 Jan (Coco's OD), the temperature in Seoul hit -16 degree celsius and the average in the country was -10. Moreover, it seems that the temperature there is expected to drop below -10 again starting Monday after hovering at a bearable level for the past few days. Considering how the films currently playing are going against such unfavourable odds, I can say that we can expect better legs once the weather becomes better. Here is the article about the cold wave that hit South Korea starting on Jan 11. (http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/record-cold-wave-wreaking-havoc-in-south-korea)
  10. It still has some chance to have a leggy run, especially due to the lack of animated competitions in the near future. China has given us a huge surprise, I am still holding onto some hope that South Korea will follow.
  11. Coco will be very close to JL WW by the time this weekend ends. Coco is at $627m while JL is at $655m. A $28m difference. Dom will add about $2m, UK Opening about $8m-9m hopefully, South Korea adding about $8m from first week and second weekend, Argentina about $3-4m from weekdays and second weekend and other holdovers about $8m-10m. It seems that Coco will probably be able to cross JL WW by the end of this weekend?
  12. Also, there seems to be some difference between the total admissions and gross for the website above and this (http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/jsp/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY). Which is the more reliable source? edit: nvm I realised the griss in kofic was in won and not USD, but there is still some difference in the admissions tho.
  13. Is the presales number for tomorrow only or for next few days? I dont read Korean but if I am not wrong Coco presales currently around 142k?
  14. I dont have the exact numbers, but I browse through a website called cineinkorea (just google it) and they show the seats sold for a certain Korean cinema chain and from what I see, alot of Coco's showtimes are selling very well, better than last week's even maybe.
  15. Coco presales for Saturday seems quite strong despite going up against 2 new openers. I think the WOM is beginning to carry this film upwards and hopefully it can recover and slowly make its way to number 1.
  16. The possibility is very high indeed. Its needs $180 million from where it is bow to get there. Apart from what you have listed, it will do at least $10 million more domestically and about $15 million in the nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark) nd Turkey where it has yet to opened. Holdovers will do a lot more than $20 million, its opening in Argentina bids well for it and could do $10 million or even more from there alone. And if it continues to hold strong in other markets, the holdovers can go from $35 million - $40 million. For South Korea, $40 million seems about right if it legs out well, but it could have an even massive breakout considering its success in China and WOM seems to be terrific in the country. UK wise, I agree that $30 million is the floor since all Pixar original films (except TGD) has grossed more than $30 million there. Considering the critical acclaim Coco has garnered and its BAFTA nomination, Coco has a shot of getting boosted by the awards season buzz and could even go higher into the $40-$50 million plus range. But I will put UK at about $35 million for now. Japan is a huge wild card, but how Coco played out in the rest of Asia certainly puts it in a good spot ahead of its Japanese bow in March. Given how Japanese enjoy quality and meaningful animated films, a massive breakout is not out of the question here. I would say $75 million will most likely happen and it certainly has the potential to go even higher than that.
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