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averagejoe

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Posts posted by averagejoe

  1. 3 hours ago, a2knet said:

    Had an 18.3m OS-Japan weekend so should add 2x+ the weekend more to it's run for 36.6m+.

    About 5m more Dom (after a 1.9m weekend)

    And being conservative, say 30m in Japan for,

    656 + 37 + 5 + 30 = 728 global at least

    750-760 is very much alive and realistic.

    37m is too low for holdovers imo. UK can add about $25m more, South Korea $10m at the very least, Argentina about $6m and other holdovers around $15m. Total around $56m for holdovers. If you add in the nordic countries which should do around $15m in total, Coco will have already crossed $730m before Japan opens.

    • Like 1
  2. 8 hours ago, KP1025 said:

     

    Oh right, completely forgot about Jumanji. That makes a difficult milestone even more of a reach. Coco would have to be the highest grossing Pixar film in Japan to beat Wonder Woman WW. 

    Coco stands at $656m worldwide now. Still needs $165m to get to WW. Dom can add another $7m or so. UK should add about $30m. South Korea $15m or more, The nordic countries (where it has yet to open) can add about $15m, and other holdovers can add about $20m more. Adding these up it will need $78m from Japan, which would place it #4 Pixar film in Japan behind TS3 ($126M), Nemo ($102M) and MU ($90M). Considering how Coco is already the highest grossing Pixar film in China and locked to be second highest grossing Pixar film in South Korea (with an outside chance of first), I see no reason why Coco will not replicate this in Japan and climb into the top 3 Pixar films released there. So judging by how Coco has been playing out in major Asian territories, I would say Coco has a decent chance at crossing Wonder Woman worldwide.

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  3. I am thinking comparing Coco to Inside Out may not be an ideal comparison. Especially since Inside Out was released at the start of summer vacation whereas Coco is released halfway through winter vacation. Summer is generally a better season for the box office as the winter cold can deter many people from leaving their house. This is especially relevant this year since the winter in South Korea is at a record cold. I was in Seoul a few weeks back and the cold was really very bad. On 11 Jan (Coco's OD), the temperature in Seoul hit -16 degree celsius and the average in the country was -10. Moreover, it seems that the temperature there is expected to drop below -10 again starting Monday after hovering at a bearable level for the past few days. Considering how the films currently playing are going against such unfavourable odds, I can say that we can expect better legs once the weather becomes better.

     

    Here is the article about the cold wave that hit South Korea starting on Jan 11. (http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/record-cold-wave-wreaking-havoc-in-south-korea)

  4. 3 minutes ago, Fish&chips said:

    The reception for Coco has been pretty great and it should comfortably beat Finding Dory to become pixars second most attended film in SK.

     

    I don't see it overtaking Inside out though, the legs on that film were insane. 

    It still has some chance to have a leggy run, especially due to the lack of animated competitions in the near future. China has given us a huge surprise, I am still holding onto some hope that South Korea will follow.

  5. Coco will be very close to JL WW by the time this weekend ends. Coco is at $627m while JL is at $655m. A $28m difference. Dom will add about $2m, UK Opening about $8m-9m hopefully, South Korea adding about $8m from first week and second weekend, Argentina about $3-4m from weekdays and second weekend and other holdovers about $8m-10m. It seems that Coco will probably be able to cross JL WW by the end of this weekend? 

    • Like 2
  6. 11 hours ago, Hei25 said:

    Thursday 18th January Estimates:

     

    1. Coco 54.817 (-22%) Total = 703.579 Adm.

    2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 21.680 Adm. (-22%) Total = 742.905

    3. Insidious: The Last Key 20.410 Adm. *New

    4. The Commuter 7.770 Adm. *New

    ...

    6. Las Grietas de Jara 3.760 Adm. *New

    7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 3.581 Adm. *New

     

     

    Huge hold for Coco on it's second thursday (Higher than Sing and Wreck it Ralph OD also almost on par with Moana's OD and above Tangled and Frozen 2nd Thursday). Last weekend weather was rainy and this looks preaty sunny and warm so it may affect it's weekend hold, but I imagine it falling a mere 28-33%, something great based on it's OW. Coco wlll reach 1M on it's 12 or 13 day of realease.

    Jumanji once again with another impressive hold, even that, Coco will outsell it on saturday. But everytime it's final estimatation is looking higher.

    Nice OD for Insidious TLK, it may top 100k admissions.-

    And local movie "Las Grietas de Jara" flopped, but Disney didn't expect to much from it based on it's low screen count.

     

     

    Does Coco have a chance to reach $15 million USD?

  7. 9 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

    Where can I find presales?

    I dont have the exact numbers, but I browse through a website called cineinkorea (just google it) and they show the seats sold for a certain Korean cinema chain and from what I see, alot of Coco's showtimes are selling very well, better than last week's even maybe.

  8. 6 hours ago, feasby007 said:

    Thursday

     

    Jan 18, 2018 rss image
    Rank Film Release
    Date
    Daily Gross
    (Total)
    Admissions
    (Total)
    Number of 
    Screens
    Revenue 
    Share
    1 Maze Runner: The Death Cure

    Maze Runner: The Death Cure

    Jan 17, 2018 $1,210,384
    ($2,902,297)
    165,927
    (396,409)
    978 30.29%
    2 Keys to the Heart

    Keys to the Heart

    Jan 17, 2018 $796,748
    ($1,892,824)
    112,579
    (263,074)
    831 19.94%
    3 COCO

    COCO

    Jan 11, 2018 $571,119
    ($9,208,966)
    85,186
    (1,237,275)
    752 14.29%
    4 1987: When the Day Comes

    1987: When the Day Comes

    Dec 27, 2017 $566,589
    ($46,519,574)
    80,117
    (6,203,233)
    742 14.18%
    5 Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds

    Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds

    Dec 20, 2017 $473,887
    ($98,806,950)
    68,886
    (13,179,725)
    645 11.86%
    6 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

    Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

    Jan 03, 2018 $89,041
    ($12,319,006)
    13,091
    (1,629,785)
    397 2.22%
    7 SECHSKIES Eighteen

    SECHSKIES Eighteen

    Jan 18, 2018 $47,036
    ($66,393)
    6,889
    (9,181)
    25 1.17%
    8 The Greatest Showman

    The Greatest Showman

    Dec 20, 2017 $42,486
    ($9,582,469)
    5,816
    (1,252,716)
    108 1.06%
    9 Is the Order a Rabbit?? ~Dear My Sister~

    Is the Order a Rabbit?? ~Dear My Sister~

    Jan 18, 2018 $38,179
    ($45,628)
    5,772
    (6,658)
    79 0.95%
    10 The Little Vampire 3D

    The Little Vampire 3D

    Jan 18, 2018 $16,336
    ($23,449)
    2,646
    (3,615)
    192 0.4%

    Coco increased from Wednesday. Is that a good sign?

  9. 1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

    Provisional estimate for the day:

      Hide contents
    Jan 17, 2018 rss image
    Rank Film Release
    Date
    Daily Gross
    (Total)
    Admissions
    (Total)
    Number of 
    Screens
    Revenue 
    Share
    1 Maze Runner: The Death Cure

    Maze Runner: The Death Cure

    Jan 17, 2018 $1,581,583
    ($1,635,865)
    217,588
    (222,549)
    911 35.92%
    2 Keys to the Heart

    Keys to the Heart

    Jan 17, 2018 $869,137
    ($1,064,228)
    122,187
    (145,888)
    819 19.74%
    3 1987: When the Day Comes

    1987: When the Day Comes

    Dec 27, 2017 $632,144
    ($45,941,533)
    89,024
    (6,121,486)
    750 14.35%
    4 COCO

    COCO

    Jan 11, 2018 $549,734
    ($8,633,819)
    81,533
    (1,151,512)
    740 12.48%
    5 Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds

    Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds

    Dec 20, 2017 $486,106
    ($98,323,993)
    69,867
    (13,109,529)
    609 11.04%
    6 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

    Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

    Jan 03, 2018 $99,189
    ($12,230,884)
    14,353
    (1,617,006)
    379 2.25%
    7 The Greatest Showman

    The Greatest Showman

    Dec 20, 2017 $46,709
    ($9,539,267)
    6,409
    (1,246,800)
    107 1.06%
    8 FERDINAND

    FERDINAND

    Jan 03, 2018 $20,209
    ($3,468,550)
    3,588
    (512,292)
    96 0.45%
    9 Wonder

    Wonder

    Dec 27, 2017 $22,504
    ($1,388,982)
    3,138
    (188,605)
    66 0.51%
    10 Darkest Hour

    Darkest Hour

    Jan 17, 2018 $11,843
    ($19,082)
    1,759
    (2,865)
    215 0.26%

     

    COCO down 29% to 4th because of openers (Inside Out increased, but dropped 22% the following wednesday due to openers). Maze Runner opens decently.

    Can Coco recover considering the good wom?

  10. 1 hour ago, Tauren Warlock said:

    Is there a possibility that Coco can still reach $800 million worldwide?

     

    Japan $100 mil+

    South Korea $40 mil

    UK $30 mil

    Holdover markets $20 mil

    The possibility is very high indeed. Its needs $180 million from where it is bow to get there.

     

    Apart from what you have listed, it will do at least $10 million more domestically and about $15 million in the nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark) nd Turkey where it has yet to opened.

     

    Holdovers will do a lot more than $20 million, its opening in Argentina bids well for it and could do $10 million or even more from there alone. And if it continues to hold strong in other markets, the holdovers can go from $35 million - $40 million.

     

    For South Korea, $40 million seems about right if it legs out well, but it could have an even massive breakout considering its success in China and WOM seems to be terrific in the country.

     

    UK wise, I agree that $30 million is the floor since all Pixar original films (except TGD) has grossed more than $30 million there. Considering the critical acclaim Coco has garnered and its BAFTA nomination, Coco has a shot of getting boosted by the awards season buzz and could even go higher into the $40-$50 million plus range. But I will put UK at about $35 million for now.

     

    Japan is a huge wild card, but how Coco played out in the rest of Asia certainly puts it in a good spot ahead of its Japanese bow in March. Given how Japanese enjoy quality and meaningful animated films, a massive breakout is not out of the question here. I would say $75 million will most likely happen and it certainly has the potential to go even higher than that.

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