lobogotti

Martian might be a good comp. Went up 182% from it's first Thursday to second Friday. If you use a $2.3M Thursday multiplied by 2.8x, FvF would have a $6.44M Friday. Use the same weekend multiplier for Martian at 3.45x off Friday and it could go above $22M in its second weekend. Given its competition we might not see that high, but $20M+ is definitely still possible,

It’s just insane this film is holding at top ten (#8) in its 7th weekend. It’s roughly $1M away from finishing top five. It’s PTA is 5th best in the top 8 and just barely finished behind CA. And a smidge more behind two others. Really, FvsF is the only film in the top 8 doing crazy PTA. Bottom line, the film shouldn’t be losing screens at the numbers we’re seeing. It’s killing the competition. $1.05B seems a lock. I’m hoping for above your number though.

I’ve seen a comment or two about FvsF could hit $100M. It’s not really even a question if it will hit $100M. I think the question should be how much above $100M can the film make? Yes, this seems destined to be a 4x banger off OW. Feels like it’s got a better chance than not to push over $125M. Having seen the film, I can say with certainty it’s a gem. It opened on a great weekend and will make a killing thru Thanksgiving. Should still play well into the holidays, as Thanksgiving being so late this year there are only 3 weekends until the XMas runs start. Gonna fight for similar crowd next weekend, but won’t it be refreshing for grandfathers, fathers and sons to have this as an option over the holidays. Not a lot gets put out these days that can span three generations, while holding the attention of the youth at the same time. Last night I went to see Dr. Sleep and saw a group of six men ages 15-65 standing outside the theater, talking about FvsF. The older men were just so moved. It was great to see. With the low Thursday number and what will likely be $32M+ weekend after actuals, this film has a great shot to pull in $20M next weekend.... even with Mr. Rogers. Can easily see this being above $90M thru Thanksgiving weekend. We’ll see.

My thoughts too. $350M still seems possible with an awards push... but also not likely.

Also, Joker is going to make $800k+ more in its 6th weekend than Endgame did. Just remarkable. AE went onto make $43M from its 6th weekend. Now I know that Joker will be fighting for screens, but it will run well through Thanksgiving. BO total will be $320M+ by next Sunday and well over $330M thru Thanksgiving. The question is, with the awards chatter, when will they re-release it or re-expand it? They can’t really wait until nominations, can they?

I know people are shocked by Dr. Sleep, believe me, I am too. However, Joker in its 6th weekend will be less than $1.5M from DFs 2nd weekend. That’s a monumental flop. It had already opened so low last week and it’s going to barely get past $10M this weekend.

If you go back to 12/15/17 thru 5/6/18, Disney will have controlled roughly $1.78B of $3.68B in box office receipts (domestic), for over 48% of the market, with just three films! If you add in a Wrinkle in Time, they controlled 51%. Just think about that for a minute. Then think about how much MoviePass has helped films that would not have gotten near as many sales if it were not for their 1 a day. I've seen it first hand. I have friends that now attend films with me on a weekly basis that only came out on occasion (solely because of MoviePass). Also, was at Landmark last Tuesday and there were 15 people in the audience, about 11 more than usual for a weeknight there. Every ticket I saw purchased for that film (You Were Never Really Here) was with MoviePass. If not for MoviePass, I think the percentage ownership for Disney in this span would be a few points higher. These numbers in a way are fascinating, but ridiculously scary for big box and smaller budget films.

What astonishes me over and over are how the trades get these estimates so wrong, so early. Variety was the first to report Friday and said: $95-100M Fri / $225M OW. Where is the due diligence in those numbers? For example, that Thursday number blew Ultron out of the water, yet if IW made $95M for it’s true Friday, it would have actually been lower than Ultron?? Do they not hire any box office analysts with background in actual box office? Simple math, previous MCU films, user ratings, etc. we’re indicators after the Thursday number came out that $105M should be the floor for Friday. And from there you set the Saturday at a minimum of $75M. And you arrive at a much more accurate early estimate of $240M... with room to grow, as the film has done. Missing this by over $30M from your first estimate is just sloppy when you figure they should be experts in the field.

Now IW has the chance to beat TFAs OW by $10M+!

Holy shit! And that PTA of $55k per!!

Keep this in mind, if the Fri/Sat numbers equate to $188M+ and Sat is $82M then this film has a real chance to be over $255M tomorrow when actuals come in. Even after you adjust for inflation, this film is selling more tickets than Avengers 1. The Sunday drop was 18% because of spill over demand, which is going to be tighter for IW. So in all actuality, we could see a $67M+ Sun. Seems nuts, but can’t be ruled out.

I know I may get laughed at, but there are only two films in the next few years that have a chance at the OW record. 1. Obviously Avengers 4... with the way it ends and the superior quality of the film, what they’ll do with Captain Marvel, increased fanbase from Black Panther and the year long wait which is a LONG time given how good IW was. It has a real chance to beat these numbers. Thursday number will be $40-50M and then quality/WOM will determine the remainder of the weekend. 2. And this is where people laugh, Avatar 2. Yes, not truly known for superior story, in hindsight, but it’s been out of the public eye for a LONG time. Disney helped the film by making the ride the coolest experience at Disney World. Tens of thousands of people daily are waiting three hours, mystified by the world of Avatar, keeping the property relevant and subconsciously building a young fanbase. I wouldn’t bet on it beating the OW record, but at this point it’s the only film I think might have a chance.

Adjusted for inflation, The Avengers would have opened around $232M this weekend.

yeah, laying in bed doing quick math and felt like $350M+ is a real possibility

not sure if it's been said, but that $19.2M destroys Deadpool's 2nd Friday of $16.2M

$123.1M OW... in September, Rated R, Horror, during a hurricane that knocked out 5-6% of screens, and the aftermath of a hurricane the week prior, on the NFLs first weekend, without being a comic book or blockbuster franchise... AMAZING! Also, dropping only 37.6% on Sunday is phenomenal. Just think about the possibilities without the hurricane, NFL and if theaters had more shows at the ready for a blockbuster like weekend.

that would be a much smaller drop of 38%

if It did fall 38% then it's very close to what Empire said and THR is a ways off as it would be over $125M OW

I freaking knew it!

Man, yesterday I said it would be 7-10M underestimated and just missed it at $6M! It is literally and figuratively a MONSTER!

he's gonna come back and say closer to 29-30 clowns!

Girls Trip passed Bad Moms... that's quite an achievement

massive

It made up 75% of total weekend sales. Is that a record?

we're about to sell-out a Sun 11:50am 145+ seat theater... and this is dropping 55%? LOL already sold 15 more seats than yesterday!