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meriodejaneiro

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Everything posted by meriodejaneiro

  1. And yet TROS is gonna make more money (and probably more profit due to bigger dom numbers) than any HP (8 movies) and LOTR (6 movies) except for LOTR 3 $1.12B (by short) and HP7.2 $1.34B. True that after TFA, we all thought SW movies should all be on that level and TLJ-TROS underperformed and left us all disappointed. But after TFA-TLJ-TROS delivered what they delivered ... I think TFA is the clear anomaly in the trend, and what TLJ-TROS made is what we can expect for future SW saga movies (1-1.3B).
  2. Maybe those aliens come to earth to attend the movie 🙄
  3. After a 4-day 433M, with all Christmas season ahead? 101% My question would be: Could TROS make $1B before the 31st?
  4. It's not me, it's Deadline Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker powered up its light sabers in 46 material offshore markets through Thursday, grossing $59.1M at the international box office. That includes China where the force is, unsurprisingly, not strong with this final installment. Elsewhere, Episode IX has seen launches above Star Wars: The Last Jedi in most majors. https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-opening-weekend-china-global-international-box-office-1202814799/ For example, in Japan, TLJ made 66M, and Corpse is saying 70-80 is achievable for TROS. If it increases a bit from TLJ in Japan, Australia, NZ, Germany, France, UK, and holds in the rest, the 712 from TLJ can easily rise up to 800M intl. Given it's the (theorically) last installment in the saga, i'd say it can increase a bit in every market, or at least stay flat from TLJ. Not's saying 1B intl, but below 750M would surprise me. Anyway, if it's not 650/850/1500 but 600/750/1350, it would still be in a tight fight for "higher ww" with F2.
  5. About "F2 > < TROS WW" For the F2>TROS i think F2 has to make it's very very best and stretch it to the max at the same time TROS underperforms. While the natural patter should put F2<TROS (even by 1$). That's how i see it. F2 is at 377M dom and I doubt it can make it to 500M (450M+ could be). Intl is at 667M. Let's say it has 200M+ in the tank, for a ≈900M. All that, being kind of generous, would put F2 on the 1350M, around TLJ ww level. TROS can open on 195M. From all 200M+ openers, no one's gone below 620M dom (TLJ). On the other hand, 191M openers such as TLK and AOU went below 540M dom. But those two didn't have Christmas schedule, which this year shows a favorable holidays pattern to play in favor of TROS. So I'd say TROS is more inclined to the 600M+ than the 550M- dom. Let's put it on the 550-600M dom. As per Deadline, TROS has opened above TLJ in almost every international major franchise market. TLJ made 712M intl. Let's say a little improvement puts TROS on the 800M intl. That would mean 1350M ww for TROS on the midd-case/almost worst-case scenario. For TROS, the floor is TLJ imo. And i think it will get beyond, with some 650/850/1.5B, with a chance at 1.6B, nearing TLK #s.
  6. I'd say 180ish/520ish for BP2. True it's opening in summer (better weekdays and favorable for legs) but it will also face way stronger competition than that it could face in february/march. Also, the novelty factor won't be there anymore, those non MCU fans casual walk-ins won't be there. So a similar ow (let's remember this will not have a 4-day ow nor an inflated saturday) but "worse" legs. Anyway, 500M+ dom is gangbusters no matter what.
  7. That's the club I wanna see ... "no 2020 movie over 1B" (or maybe restrict it to "no Disney billie on 2020" I'd be IN for both (only FF9 could challenge, but I think it will decrease from 8). People don't realize how difficult is it to achieve 1B.
  8. Coming 2022 ... wouldn't Disney change the release date to late april as in IW and EG? It worked with both, and that would give more space in summer for adding some more movies, now that they need to accommodate whatever Fox is gonna develop in the future.
  9. Also, those sunglasses will be trendy again? Buy them now, since within 2 years will become super expensive!!
  10. Prequel? I don't remember the plot exactly for TM or the time-line connexion between TM2 and TM3 , but I'd say Keanu is a standard human in the first movie before he is induced into the Matrix. So, what's to be told before that? Also, as someone mentioned ... Neo and Trinity die on the last movie (I don't remember). But then they are looking for a young Morpheus ... When will the story be set? Are they gonna explore some kind of time traveling or multiverse so that they can mix Neo and Trinity with a younger Morpheus?
  11. Isn't Disney gonna fill that 2020 Christmas gap up with any other big movie? Will they lay all efforts on Fox's West Side Story as they did last Christmas with MPR? Not that Cruella was gonna blast it off at box office, but better two movies (Disney and Fox) than only one, for the period. Is it too soon for a RJ SW movie? They could release the first installment of the trilogy in Christmas 2020 and then move the 2nd and 3rd to september/october of the following years.
  12. Will that be enough for the 400M dom?
  13. 3.53x so far and counting. Among 100M+ Pixar openers (4), its already ahead of I2 (3.34x) and on the trail to surpass FD (3.6x) and match TS3 (3.77x). But still it's a sequel no one wanted. Do Pixar need it? Is it a requirement for any specific reason?
  14. BOT updated Aladdin international numbers, and from monday to sunday, it added 4.6M (not 😎 from which 2.4 came from Japan only (due to the Obon week, harsh drops expected next week). So 2.2 from the rest of the world excluding Japan (again, that's 7 days count). Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $353,537,257 34.0% + Foreign: $686,910,107 66.0% = Worldwide: $1,040,447,364
  15. During Obon weekdays mon-fri, Aladdin made 1.9M, and this past weekend sat-sun Aladdin made 0.5M, that's a 2.4M in the last 7 days (with the biggest box office days of the year in Japan). Corpse estimates Aladdin can make some 2M max. extra in Japan till the end of its run. As per SK and "the rest" I don't know how to check those numbers. Deadline keeps muted about its international add for this last week for Aladdin, as well as BOT. Maybe today when actuals come in, they will update Aladdin os numbers. But it seems to me that Aladdin numbers os are so small in the markets that they stopped delivering those numbers, and will wait some weeks to just make a final update.
  16. Maybe it won't stop a 1,035B, but last weekend Aladdin made 2.8M according to Deadline's Nancy Tartaglione, and this weekend report doesn't even mention Aladdin, and the movie reported as the smallest bo weekend is one with 900k ... so Aladdin should have come below that. In fact, last weekend Deadline reported an OS total for Aladdin of 682.5M, but today at BOM you can see it's at 682.2M. Also, domestically, last weekend dropped 62.3%, and this weekend dropped almost 60% (and at BOM it isn't even shown in the daily numbers calendar). So considering this we Aladdin made those 900k the smallest movie Deadline reported, it's declined a 68% from last weekend. And with same 60% decline domestically ... I don't expect Aladdin to add much more to those current 1,035 B Maybe within some weeks BOM will make a final addition to give final actual numbers, and add up some 4 or 5M extra, but I'd say it's pretty done everywhere.
  17. Does TS4 has still enough fuel to reach the 100M? With a 1.1M we, and still 17.5M to make ... i don't see it clear ... but I didn't see Aladdin going beyond 650M ww and look ...
  18. Probably? I know no much about Japanese box office ... but unless it fades away from theaters like ... now... TLK is 100% sure to top Avengers in Japan. It's almost half way after just 7 days. Maybe my 100M wish is a hard achievement but somewhere in between 55 and 100 is a safe bet (i'd say 75-80M)
  19. when that type of milestone happen, Deadline makes an article mentioning it, whatever day of the week that happens. And I don't see any yet, so I presume it's still below the 1B.
  20. So, the route now is deviating bitterness towards Phase 4 (onwards) ... well, that give you some couple of decades cushion to keep running the itchy wheel till predictions can be checked. Luckily Avatar 2 would have been released by then (or not).
  21. Are 100M totally discarded for TLK in Japan, or not quite yet? I want those 4x100M Disney 2019 in Japan (Aladdin, TS4, TLK and F2)... and the cherry on the top would be TROS (but this i'm 99.99% self-convinced it's not gonna happen). I know TROS will be considered a 2020 movie for reasons I would never understand, but for me, a movie released in 2019 will still be a 2019 movie.
  22. TS4 might end up making 440M. It's currently 20M+ ahead of TS3 at the same point, and TS3 ended with 415M. By LD weekend, Aladdin might be totally done and no milestone reachable, neither dom (400) nor ww (1100). TS4 might be on the same position as Aladdin, with no milestone reachable neither dom (450 seems too far even with a LD expansion) or ww (1100). I keep thinking TLK could be the chosen one for the LD expansion, since it seems to be suffering to even reach 550M dom, so that might be the push for late legs needed to reach that mark.
  23. Not at all (i wonder why your insistence on saying week after week that TLK drops are sharp and bad). Last week TLK made intl. 81M (mon-thu) + 72M (fss). This week TLK made intl. 42.5M (mon-thu) + 41.5M (fss ... excluding the 9.5M opening from Japan). That makes a -47.5% drop (mon-thu) and a -42.3% (fss ... but -29.2% if you include Japan ow numbers on the mix). So TLK overseas dropped -38.8% (week to week) and -29.2% (weekend to weekend). At this rate, 1B+ OS shouldn't be in danger. Adding 550M dom, i see it landing on 1.6B+ WW.
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