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Poseidon

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  1. How would you assume that only 5% of cases need hospitalisation? According to this page, on June 16th there were still close to 500 new admissions in hospital, while new reported cases were in the thousands. https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare
  2. So I asked myself why states like Texas, California, Florida or Arizona started to spread only now: Well, I came to one conclusion. All those states usually have spring or early summer temperatures in Feb/March/April. Outdoor Weather already. While the populated northern states are still in Winter mode and in indoor environments. Now that it's getting really hot in the south, people probably get back indoors where the rooms are ventilated and thatfor the outdoor and spring effect is gone and the virus can spread much easier and also with more severe cases (bigger viral loads in indoor environments) than in spring. Any thoughts?
  3. Amazing. How to make a graph, that makes Covid look like the biggest killer walking on earth, while leaving out 90% of death causes.
  4. Education could finish this event in seconds. Sadly, education is what big parts of the USA seems to lack the most. Just sad. All it would take, would be a look over some borders to recognize, that this is a worldwide threat, even to countries with a socialist structure.
  5. Let me guess, you had a look at Cuomos Press Conference? I was pretty mad that he is now using facts like Trump would. It is right, the R0 went up to 0,95 recently, after being down at 0,7 or even 0,6 after easter. It's a dynamic number though and might have been deflated due to easter numbers. Todays number was already down to 0,75. so no, Mr. Cuomo, ending the lockdown did obviously not get us to 1.0 again, if those R0 numbers are to be trusted. Cuomo should find other ways to convince his state of the need of further meassures, but that should not be the way.
  6. Any country would have achieved that, had they been lucky enough to be warned. It's not that tough to get rid of a virus. Technically. No host, no survival, it's as simple as that. If the whole world, every person, locked themselves at home for 3 weeks, it would be over. So well, yeah, there are countries that don't look worse than during flu season, but we paid a huge price for that and will be paying for months to come. The flu, finally, needs to be left out of that discussion. It was a hope for many, also for me, when it all started. Reality proved us all wrong.
  7. Those stats for sure look impressive, but for further interpretation, we have to look back at them at the end of the year to fully understand the impact of the virus.
  8. There seems to be something off with those numbers over at Worldometer. It looks like they changed how they report antibody testings. Until yesterday, they reported 2 different kinds of antibody tests. They put them together in todays reports as a cumulative number. That number is 16774. Paired with the 202990 tested with PCR that's a total of 219.764. That's 5229 cases more than yesterday. As an addition: Those antibody tests started to flood the statistics about a week ago, so they should be seen as an unreliable addition to the PCR method. Via PCR method, there were about 2800 new cases since yesterday. I've yet to research the purpose of those antibody tests. The governments seems to have given houndreds of thousands out it seems, but as my spanish is non-existant, it's tough to get behind it. Is it part of a study or are they really trying those quick antibody tests experts seem to slam left and right? who knows, but one thing is sure: It's not getting worse because of those recent numbers. They are just different.
  9. People are not neccessarily visibly sick before they die. An explanation might be, that the virus seems to be able to attack the nervous system and the brain as well, and so might cause apnea. It's not that every resident has a cough, high fever or pneumonia, there are also reports of people dying without typical symptoms. That might especially happen with weakened patients. The amount of people in a care home with underlying conditions is certainly the highest you can meet on a single spot. Overall, it needs more research to completely understand the virus.
  10. Singapore had an outbreak in certain dormitories, but only 22 cases of community spread outside, so everything happening at the moment looks to be controlled and monitored. Only because Singapore delivers numbers much closer to reality, it doesn't make it bad, because it looks bad compared to underreporting countries. https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/38-more-cases-discharged-942-new-cases-of-covid-19-infection-confirmed
  11. There is reason to believe, that Singapore numbers are that high, because they are actually finding most of their cases while others only get the symptomatic cases into their statistics. That's why comparing countries is pretty much useless. We should stop making headlines of potentially bad developments without using the context of the numbers.
  12. The White House can plan whatever they want. People will be cleverer than that.
  13. Keep in mind that the flu numbers are extrapolations. Dead cases confirmed by laboratory are way lower than that. So there's a big difference to how Corona gets counted and it's not clear, that when all is said and done, there have to be extrapolations for Corona Deaths as well. We shoud stop comparing an ongoing pandemic to a finished outbreak, that just doesn't make too much sense at this point.
  14. My source is Brigitte Klinkert, President of the french department Haut-Rhin. I guess she would know. Late in march, she told newspaper "Die Welt" that the hospital in Straßbourg used triage for about two weeks because of a lack of ventilators: https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus206815855/Corona-in-Frankreich-Den-aeltesten-Patienten-helfen-sie-nur-noch-beim-Sterben.html?wtrid=onsite.onsitesearch (Paied article) A free article quoting them: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/niemand-ist-auf-diesen-tsunami-vorbereitet-verwirrung-um-triage-verfahren-an-universitaets-klinik-in-strassburg/25689158.html
  15. There you go: https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/karte-sars-cov-2-in-deutschland-landkreise/ Kreis Aschaffenburg: 339 cases. 5,3% died 10.3/100k died
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